Dynamic Pricing for Real Estate

We study a mathematical model for the optimization of the price of real estate (RE). This model can be characterised by a limited amount of goods, fixed sales horizon and presence of intermediate sales and revenue goals. We develop it as an enhancement and upgrade of the model presented by Besbes an

August 22, 2024 · 1 min · thequant.space

Enhancing Causal Discovery in Financial Networks with Piecewise Quantile Regression

Financial networks can be constructed using statistical dependencies found within the price series of speculative assets. Across the various methods used to infer these networks, there is a general reliance on predictive modelling to capture cross-correlation effects. These methods usually model the

August 22, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

EX-DRL: Hedging Against Heavy Losses with EXtreme Distributional Reinforcement Learning

Recent advancements in Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DRL) for modeling loss distributions have shown promise in developing hedging strategies in derivatives markets. A common approach in DRL involves learning the quantiles of loss distributions at specified levels using Quantile Regression

August 22, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimizing Performance: How Compact Models Match or Exceed GPT's Classification Capabilities through Fine-Tuning

In this paper, we demonstrate that non-generative, small-sized models such as FinBERT and FinDRoBERTa, when fine-tuned, can outperform GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 models in zero-shot learning settings in sentiment analysis for financial news. These fine-tuned models show comparable results to GPT-3.5 when it

August 22, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

A case study on different one-factor Cheyette models for short maturity caplet calibration

In [“1”], we calibrated a one-factor Cheyette SLV model with a local volatility that is linear in the benchmark forward rate and an uncorrelated CIR stochastic variance to 3M caplets of various maturities. While caplet smiles for many maturities could be reasonably well calibrated across the range o

August 21, 2024 · 3 min · thequant.space

Deviations from the Nash equilibrium and emergence of tacit collusion in a two-player optimal execution game with reinforcement learning

The use of reinforcement learning algorithms in financial trading is becoming increasingly prevalent. However, the autonomous nature of these algorithms can lead to unexpected outcomes that deviate from traditional game-theoretical predictions and may even destabilize markets. In this study, we exam

August 21, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Dynamical analysis of financial stocks network: improving forecasting using network properties

Applying a network analysis to stock return correlations, we study the dynamical properties of the network and how they correlate with the market return, finding meaningful variables that partially capture the complex dynamical processes of stock interactions and the market structure. We then use th

August 21, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Less is more: AI Decision-Making using Dynamic Deep Neural Networks for Short-Term Stock Index Prediction

In this paper we introduce a multi-agent deep-learning method which trades in the Futures markets based on the US S&P 500 index. The method (referred to as Model A) is an innovation founded on existing well-established machine-learning models which sample market prices and associated derivatives in

August 21, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

MEV Capture and Decentralization in Execution Tickets

We provide an economic model of Execution Tickets and use it to study the ability of the Ethereum protocol to capture MEV from block construction. We demonstrate that Execution Tickets extract all MEV when all buyers are homogeneous, risk neutral and face no capital costs. We also show that MEV capt

August 21, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Network-based diversification of stock and cryptocurrency portfolios

Maintaining a balance between returns and volatility is a common strategy for portfolio diversification, whether investing in traditional equities or digital assets like cryptocurrencies. One approach for diversification is the application of community detection or clustering, using a network repres

August 21, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Hedging in Jump Diffusion Model with Transaction Costs

We consider the jump-diffusion risky asset model and study its conditional prediction laws. Next, we explain the conditional least square hedging strategy and calculate its closed form for the jump-diffusion model, considering the Black-Scholes framework with interpretations related to investor prio

August 20, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Open-FinLLMs: Open Multimodal Large Language Models for Financial Applications

Financial LLMs hold promise for advancing financial tasks and domain-specific applications. However, they are limited by scarce corpora, weak multimodal capabilities, and narrow evaluations, making them less suited for real-world application. To address this, we introduce \textit{“Open-FinLLMs”}, th

August 20, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Can an unsupervised clustering algorithm reproduce a categorization system?

Peer analysis is a critical component of investment management, often relying on expert-provided categorization systems. These systems’ consistency is questioned when they do not align with cohorts from unsupervised clustering algorithms optimized for various metrics. We investigate whether unsuperv

August 19, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Causality-Inspired Models for Financial Time Series Forecasting

We introduce a novel framework to financial time series forecasting that leverages causality-inspired models to balance the trade-off between invariance to distributional changes and minimization of prediction errors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to conduct a comprehensive c

August 19, 2024 · 1 min · thequant.space

Combining supervised and unsupervised learning methods to predict financial market movements

The decisions traders make to buy or sell an asset depend on various analyses, with expertise required to identify patterns that can be exploited for profit. In this paper we identify novel features extracted from emergent and well-established financial markets using linear models and Gaussian Mixtu

August 19, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Contemporaneous and lagged spillovers between agriculture, crude oil, carbon emission allowance, and climate change

In this paper, we examine the dynamic spillovers among the crude oil, carbon emission allowance, climate change, and agricultural markets. Adopting a novel $R^2$ decomposed connectedness approach, our empirical analysis reveals several key findings. The overall TCI dynamics have been mainly dominate

August 19, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Deep-MacroFin: Informed Equilibrium Neural Network for Continuous Time Economic Models

In this paper, we present Deep-MacroFin, a comprehensive framework designed to solve partial differential equations, with a particular focus on models in continuous time economics. This framework leverages deep learning methodologies, including Multi-Layer Perceptrons and the newly developed Kolmogo

August 19, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

High-Frequency Trading Liquidity Analysis | Application of Machine Learning Classification

This research presents a comprehensive framework for analyzing liquidity in financial markets, particularly in the context of high-frequency trading. By leveraging advanced machine learning classification techniques, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest, the study

August 19, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal insurance design with Lambda-Value-at-Risk

This paper explores optimal insurance solutions based on the Lambda-Value-at-Risk ($Λ\VaR$). If the expected value premium principle is used, our findings confirm that, similar to the VaR model, a truncated stop-loss indemnity is optimal in the $Λ\VaR$ model. We further provide a closed-form express

August 19, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

A new measure of risk using Fourier analysis

We use Fourier analysis to access risk in financial products. With it we analyze price changes of e.g. stocks. Via Fourier analysis we scrutinize quantitatively whether the frequency of change is higher than a change in (conserved) company value would allow. If it is the case, it would be a clear in

August 18, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space