Forming quantitative portfolios using statistical risk models presents a significant challenge for hedge funds and portfolio managers. This research investigates three distinct statistical risk models to construct quantitative portfolios of 1,000 floating stocks in the US market. Utilizing five diff
In the Venture Capital (VC) industry, predicting the success of startups is challenging due to limited financial data and the need for subjective revenue forecasts. Previous methods based on time series analysis often fall short as they fail to incorporate crucial inter-company relationships such as
This paper explores continuous-time and state-space optimal stopping problems from a reinforcement learning perspective. We begin by formulating the stopping problem using randomized stopping times, where the decision maker’s control is represented by the probability of stopping within a given time-
Aiming to analyze the impact of environmental transition on the value of assets and on asset stranding, we study optimal stopping and divestment timing decisions for an economic agent whose future revenues depend on the realization of a scenario from a given set of possible futures. Since the future
Motivated by recent empirical findings on the periodic phenomenon of aggregated market volumes in equity markets, we aim to understand the causes and consequences of periodic trading activities through a game-theoretic perspective, examining market interactions among different types of participants.
We study optimal stopping for diffusion processes with unknown model primitives within the continuous-time reinforcement learning (RL) framework developed by Wang et al. (2020), and present applications to option pricing and portfolio choice. By penalizing the corresponding variational inequality fo
We develop moment estimators for the parameters of affine stochastic volatility models. We first address the challenge of calculating moments for the models by introducing a recursive equation for deriving closed-form expressions for moments of any order. Consequently, we propose our moment estimato
The use of Fermat-Torricelli points can be an effective mathematical tool for analyzing numerical series that have a large variance, a pronounced nonlinear trend, or do not have a normal distribution of a random variable. Linear dependencies are very rare in nature. Smoothing numerical series by con
This paper studies a robust stochastic control problem with a monotone mean-variance cost functional and random coefficients. The main technique is to find the saddle point through two backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) with unbounded coefficients. We further show that the robust sto
We open up the “black-box” to identify the predictive general price patterns in price chart images via the deep learning image analysis techniques. Our identified price patterns lead to the construction of image-induced importance (triple-I) weights, which are applied to weighted moving average the
Building on our prior explorations of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for financial data processing, this paper introduces two significant enhancements to refine our CNN model’s predictive performance and robustness for financial tabular data. Firstly, we integrate a normalization layer at the
This paper explores the effectiveness of high-frequency options trading strategies enhanced by advanced portfolio optimization techniques, investigating their ability to consistently generate positive returns compared to traditional long or short positions on options. Utilizing SPY options data reco
In statistical analysis, many classic results require the assumption that models have finite mean or variance, including the most standard versions of the laws of large numbers and the central limit theorems. Such an assumption may not be completely innocent, and it may not be appropriate for datase
This paper investigates the convergence properties of sample-average approximations (SAA) for set-valued systemic risk measures. We assume that the systemic risk measure is defined using a general aggregation function with some continuity properties and value-at-risk applied as a monetary risk measu
Solving large-scale robust portfolio optimization problems is challenging due to the high computational demands associated with an increasing number of assets, the amount of data considered, and market uncertainty. To address this issue, we propose an extended supporting hyperplane approximation app
We study the continuous-time pre-commitment mean-variance portfolio selection in a time-varying financial market. By introducing two indexes which respectively express the average profitability of the risky asset (AP) and the current profitability of the risky asset (CP), the optimal portfolio selec
We propose a novel machine learning approach for forecasting the distribution of stock returns using a rich set of firm-level and market predictors. Our method combines a two-stage quantile neural network with spline interpolation to construct smooth, flexible cumulative distribution functions witho
The objective of this work is the investigation of complexity, asymmetry, stochasticity and non-linearity of the financial and economic systems by using the tools of statistical mechanics and information theory. More precisely, this thesis concerns statistical-based modeling and empirical analyses w
In this paper we consider the modeling of measurement error for fund returns data. In particular, given access to a time-series of discretely observed log-returns and the associated maximum over the observation period, we develop a stochastic model which models the true log-returns and maximum via a
We investigate the optimal investment-reinsurance problem for insurance company with partial information on the market price of the risk. Through the use of filtering techniques we convert the original optimization problem involving different filtrations, into an equivalent stochastic control proble