In this paper, we study dependence uncertainty and the resulting effects on tail risk measures, which play a fundamental role in modern risk management. We introduce the notion of a regular dependence measure, defined on multi-marginal couplings, as a generalization of well-known correlation statist
The complexity of financial data, characterized by its variability and low signal-to-noise ratio, necessitates advanced methods in quantitative investment that prioritize both performance and interpretability.Transitioning from early manual extraction to genetic programming, the most advanced approa
We give an alternative proof of a fact that a finite continuous non-decreasing submodular set function on a measurable space can be expressed as a supremum of measures dominated by the function, if there exists a class of sets which is totally ordered with respect to inclusion and generates the sigm
This study focuses on building an algorithmic investment strategy employing a hybrid approach that combines LSTM and ARIMA models referred to as LSTM-ARIMA. This unique algorithm uses LSTM to produce final predictions but boosts the results of this RNN by adding the residuals obtained from ARIMA pre
This study proposes an innovative evaluation method based on large language models (LLMs) specifically designed to measure the digital transformation (DT) process of enterprises. By analyzing the annual reports of 4407 companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq from 2005 to 2022, a c
We engineer blockchain based risk managed portfolios by creating three funds with distinct risk and return profiles: 1) Alpha - high risk portfolio; 2) Beta - mimics the wider market; and 3) Gamma - represents the risk free rate adjusted to beat inflation. Each of the sub-funds (Alpha, Beta and Gamm
In this paper, we developed the Merton’s structural model for public companies under an assumption that liabilities of the companies are observed. Using Campbell and Shiller’s approximation method, we obtain formulas of risk-neutral equity and liability values and default probabilities for the publi
The scope for the accurate calculation of the Loss Given Default (LGD) parameter is comprehensive in terms of financial data. In this research, we aim to explore methods for improving the approximation of realized LGD in conditions of limited access to the cash-flow data. We enhance the performance
We study the impact of regulatory capital constraints on fire sales and financial stability in a large banking system using a mean field game model. In our model banks adjust their holdings of a risky asset via trading strategies with finite trading rate in order to maximize expected profits. Moreov
Alphas are pivotal in providing signals for quantitative trading. The industry highly values the discovery of formulaic alphas for their interpretability and ease of analysis, compared with the expressive yet overfitting-prone black-box alphas. In this work, we focus on discovering formulaic alphas.
In decentralized exchanges (DEXs), the arbitrage paths exist abundantly in the form of both arbitrage loops (e.g. the arbitrage path starts from token A and back to token A again in the end, A, B,…, A) and non-loops (e.g. the arbitrage path starts from token A and stops at a different token N, A, B,
Mean-reverting behavior of individuals assets is widely known in financial markets. In fact, we can construct a portfolio that has mean-reverting behavior and use it in trading strategies to extract profits. In this paper, we show that we are able to find the optimal weights of stocks to construct p
Cyclic arbitrage chances exist abundantly among decentralized exchanges (DEXs), like Uniswap V2. For an arbitrage cycle (loop), researchers or practitioners usually choose a specific token, such as Ether as input, and optimize their input amount to get the net maximal amount of the specific token as
This paper is devoted to the price-storage dynamics in natural gas markets. A novel stochastic path-dependent volatility model is introduced with path-dependence in both price volatility and storage increments. Model calibrations are conducted for both the price and storage dynamics. Further, we dis
The skew-stickiness-ratio (SSR), examined in detail by Bergomi in his book, is critically important to options traders, especially market makers. We present a model-free expression for the SSR in terms of the characteristic function. In the diffusion setting, it is well-known that the short-term lim
In portfolio risk minimization, the inverse covariance matrix of returns is often unknown and has to be estimated in practice. This inverse covariance matrix also prescribes the hedge trades in which a stock is hedged by all the other stocks in the portfolio. In practice with finite samples, however
This paper presents a novel methodology for predicting international bilateral trade flows, emphasizing the growing importance of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) in the global trade landscape. Acknowledging the limitations of traditional models like the Gravity Model of Trade, this study introd
Experimentation involves risk. The investigator expends time and money in the pursuit of data that supports a hypothesis. In the end, the investigator may find that all of these costs were for naught and the data fail to reject the null. Furthermore, the investigator may not be able to test other hy
This paper tackles the problem of mitigating catastrophic risk (which is risk with very low frequency but very high severity) in the context of a sequential decision making process. This problem is particularly challenging due to the scarcity of observations in the far tail of the distribution of cu
I examine whether the imposition of fiduciary duty on municipal advisors affects bond yields and advising fees. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, I show that bond yields reduce by $\sim$9% after the imposition of the SEC Municipal Advisor Rule due to lower underwriting spreads. Larger mun