Risk management is a fundamental discipline in project management, which includes, among others, quantitative risk analysis. Throughout several years of teaching, we have observed difficulties in students performing Monte Carlo Simulation within the quantitative analysis of risks. This article aims
The project managers who deal with risk management are often faced with the difficult task of determining the relative importance of the various sources of risk that affect the project. This prioritisation is crucial to direct management efforts to ensure higher project profitability. Risk matrices
In construction projects, contingency reserves have traditionally been estimated based on a percentage of the total project cost, which is arbitrary and, thus, unreliable in practical cases. Monte Carlo simulation provides a more reliable estimation. However, works on this topic have focused exclusi
Milionis et al.(2023) studied the rate at which automated market makers leak value to arbitrageurs when block times are discrete and follow a Poisson process, and where the risky asset price follows a geometric Brownian motion. We extend their model to analyze another popular mechanism in decentrali
Obtaining a viable schedule baseline that meets all project constraints is one of the main issues for project managers. The literature on this topic focuses mainly on methods to obtain schedules that meet resource restrictions and, more recently, financial limitations. The methods provide different
Project managers need to manage risks throughout the project lifecycle and, thus, need to know how changes in activity durations influence project duration and risk. We propose a new indicator (the Activity Risk Index, ARI) that measures the contribution of each activity to the total project risk wh
The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies. More specifically, the approach uses extensive Monte Carlo simu
The Japanese real estate market, valued over 35 trillion USD, offers significant investment opportunities. Accurate rent and price forecasting could provide a substantial competitive edge. This paper explores using alternative data variables to predict real estate performance in 1100 Japanese munici
Predicting the conditional evolution of Volterra processes with stochastic volatility is a crucial challenge in mathematical finance. While deep neural network models offer promise in approximating the conditional law of such processes, their effectiveness is hindered by the curse of dimensionality
This project is a collaboration between industry and academia to delve into Finance Social Networks, specifically the Board of Directors of public companies. Knowing the connections between Directors and Executives in different companies can generate powerful stories and meaningful insights on inves
Automated market makers with concentrated liquidity capabilities are programmable at the tick level. The maximization of earned fees, plus depreciated reserves, is a convex optimization problem whose vector solution gives the best provision of liquidity at each tick under a given set of parameter es
We introduce a novel large-scale deep learning model for Limit Order Book mid-price changes forecasting, and we name it `HLOB’. This architecture (i) exploits the information encoded by an Information Filtering Network, namely the Triangulated Maximally Filtered Graph, to unveil deeper and non-trivi
Minimizing execution costs for large orders is a fundamental challenge in finance. Firms often depend on brokers to manage their trades due to limited internal resources for optimizing trading strategies. This paper presents a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of broker execution algorith
Debt recycling is an aggressive equity extraction strategy that potentially permits faster repayment of a mortgage. While equity progressively builds up as the mortgage is repaid monthly, mortgage holders may obtain another loan they could use to invest on a risky asset. The wealth produced by a suc
In this paper, we discuss the worst-case of distortion riskmetrics for general distributions when only partial information (mean and variance) is known. This result is applicable to general class of distortion risk measures and variability measures. Furthermore, we also consider worst-case of weight
In this article, we delve into the applications and extensions of the queue-reactive model for the simulation of limit order books. Our approach emphasizes the importance of order sizes, in conjunction with their type and arrival rate, by integrating the current state of the order book to determine,
This paper studies an optimal investment-reinsurance problem for an insurer (she) under the Cramér–Lundberg model with monotone mean–variance (MMV) criterion. At any time, the insurer can purchase reinsurance (or acquire new business) and invest in a security market consisting of a risk-free asset a
This paper explores using a deep learning Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for accurate stock price prediction and its implications for portfolio design. Despite the efficient market hypothesis suggesting that predicting stock prices is impossible, recent research has shown the potential of advan
Sharpe Ratio (SR) is a critical parameter in characterizing financial time series as it jointly considers the reward and the volatility of any stock/portfolio through its variance. Deriving online algorithms for optimizing the SR is particularly challenging since even offline policies experience con
We present a functional generative approach to extract risk-neutral densities from market prices of options. Specifically, we model the log-returns on the time-to-maturity continuum as a stochastic curve driven by standard normal. We then use neural nets to represent the term structures of the locat