RiskLabs: Predicting Financial Risk Using Large Language Model based on Multimodal and Multi-Sources Data

The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques, particularly large language models (LLMs), in finance has garnered increasing academic attention. Despite progress, existing studies predominantly focus on tasks like financial text summarization, question-answering, and stock movement pred

April 11, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Deep Learning Method for Predicting Mergers and Acquisitions: Temporal Dynamic Industry Networks

Merger and Acquisition (M&A) activities play a vital role in market consolidation and restructuring. For acquiring companies, M&A serves as a key investment strategy, with one primary goal being to attain complementarities that enhance market power in competitive industries. In addition to intrinsic

April 10, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Hedonic Models Incorporating ESG Factors for Time Series of Average Annual Home Prices

Using data from 2000 through 2022, we analyze the predictive capability of the annual numbers of new home constructions and four available environmental, social, and governance factors on the average annual price of homes sold in eight major U.S. cities. We contrast the predictive capability of a P-

April 10, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Machine learning-based similarity measure to forecast M&A from patent data

Defining and finalizing Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) requires complex human skills, which makes it very hard to automatically find the best partner or predict which firms will make a deal. In this work, we propose the MASS algorithm, a specifically designed measure of similarity between companies

April 10, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Prediction of Cryptocurrency Prices through a Path Dependent Monte Carlo Simulation

In this paper, our focus lies on the Merton’s jump diffusion model, employing jump processes characterized by the compound Poisson process. Our primary objective is to forecast the drift and volatility of the model using a variety of methodologies. We adopt an approach that involves implementing dif

April 10, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Unveiling Nonlinear Dynamics in Catastrophe Bond Pricing: A Machine Learning Perspective

This paper explores the implications of using machine learning models in the pricing of catastrophe (CAT) bonds. By integrating advanced machine learning techniques, our approach uncovers nonlinear relationships and complex interactions between key risk factors and CAT bond spreads – dynamics that a

April 10, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Benchmark-Neutral Pricing

The paper introduces benchmark-neutral pricing and hedging for long-term contingent claims. It employs the growth optimal portfolio of the stocks as numeraire and the new benchmark-neutral pricing measure for pricing. For a realistic parsimonious model, this pricing measure turns out to be an equiva

April 9, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Synchronization in a market model with time delays

We examine a system of N=2 coupled non-linear delay-differential equations representing financial market dynamics. In such time delay systems, coupled oscillations have been derived. We linearize the system for small time delays and study its collective dynamics. Using analytical and numerical solut

April 9, 2024 · 1 min · thequant.space

Generalized measure Black-Scholes equation: Towards option self-similar pricing

In this work, we give a generalized formulation of the Black-Scholes model. The novelty resides in considering the Black-Scholes model to be valid on ‘average’, but such that the pointwise option price dynamics depends on a measure representing the investors’ ‘uncertainty’. We make use of the theory

April 8, 2024 · 1 min · thequant.space

Measuring Arbitrage Losses and Profitability of AMM Liquidity

This paper presents the results of a comprehensive empirical study of losses to arbitrageurs (following the formalization of loss-versus-rebalancing by [“Milionis et al., 2022”]) incurred by liquidity providers on automated market makers (AMMs). We show that those losses exceed the fees earned by li

April 8, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Non-concave stochastic optimal control in finite discrete time under model uncertainty

In this article we present a general framework for non-concave robust stochastic control problems under model uncertainty in a discrete time finite horizon setting. Our framework allows to consider a variety of different path-dependent ambiguity sets of probability measures comprising, as a natural

April 8, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

The PEAL Method: a mathematical framework to streamline securitization structuring

Securitization is a financial process where the cash flows of income-generating assets are sold to institutional investors as securities, liquidating illiquid assets. This practice presents persistent challenges due to the absence of a comprehensive mathematical framework for structuring asset-backe

April 8, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Comparison of Cryptocurrency Volatility-benchmarking New and Mature Asset Classes

The paper analyzes the cryptocurrency ecosystem at both the aggregate and individual levels to understand the factors that impact future volatility. The study uses high-frequency panel data from 2020 to 2022 to examine the relationship between several market volatility drivers, such as daily leverag

April 7, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Some variation of COBRA in sequential learning setup

This research paper introduces innovative approaches for multivariate time series forecasting based on different variations of the combined regression strategy. We use specific data preprocessing techniques which makes a radical change in the behaviour of prediction. We compare the performance of th

April 7, 2024 · 1 min · thequant.space

StockGPT: A GenAI Model for Stock Prediction and Trading

This paper introduces StockGPT, an autoregressive ``number’’ model trained and tested on 70 million daily U.S.\ stock returns over nearly 100 years. Treating each return series as a sequence of tokens, StockGPT automatically learns the hidden patterns predictive of future returns via its attention m

April 7, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Exploiting the geometry of heterogeneous networks: A case study of the Indian stock market

In this study, we model the Indian stock market as heterogenous scale free network, which is then embedded in a two dimensional hyperbolic space through a machine learning based technique called as coalescent embedding. This allows us to apply the hyperbolic kmeans algorithm on the Poincare disc and

April 6, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

A theoretical framework for fees in AMMs

In the ever evolving landscape of decentralized finance automated market makers (AMMs) play a key role: they provide a market place for trading assets in a decentralized manner. For so-called bluechip pairs, arbitrage activity provides a major part of the revenue generation of AMMs but also a major

April 5, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Regularization for electricity price forecasting

The most commonly used form of regularization typically involves defining the penalty function as a L1 or L2 norm. However, numerous alternative approaches remain untested in practical applications. In this study, we apply ten different penalty functions to predict electricity prices and evaluate th

April 5, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Coherent risk measures and uniform integrability

We establish a profound connection between coherent risk measures, a prominent object in quantitative finance, and uniform integrability, a fundamental concept in probability theory. Instead of working with absolute values of random variables, which is convenient in studying integrability, we work d

April 4, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Social Media Emotions and Market Behavior

I explore the relationship between investor emotions expressed on social media and asset prices. The field has seen a proliferation of models aimed at extracting firm-level sentiment from social media data, though the behavior of these models often remains uncertain. Against this backdrop, my study

April 4, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space