By integrating survival analysis, machine learning algorithms, and economic interpretation, this research examines the temporal dynamics associated with attaining a 5 percent rise in purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita over a period of 120 months (2013-2022). A comparative investigation
This study introduces the Quantum Federated Neural Network for Financial Fraud Detection (QFNN-FFD), a cutting-edge framework merging Quantum Machine Learning (QML) and quantum computing with Federated Learning (FL) for financial fraud detection. Using quantum technologies’ computational power and t
Finding an optimal balance between risk and returns in investment portfolios is a central challenge in quantitative finance, often addressed through Markowitz portfolio theory (MPT). While traditional portfolio optimization is carried out in a continuous fashion, as if stocks could be bought in frac
The state-of-the-art proposes Life Care Annuities, that have been recently designed as variable annuity contracts with Long-Term Care payouts and Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefits. In this paper, we propose more general features for these insurance products and refine their pricing methods. We
This paper explores the intersection of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and financial analysis, focusing on the impact of sentiment analysis in stock price prediction. We employ BERTopic, an advanced NLP technique, to analyze the sentiment of topics derived from stock market comments. Our methodol
In recent decades, financial quantification has emerged and matured rapidly. For financial institutions such as funds, investment institutions are increasingly dissatisfied with the situation of passively constructing investment portfolios with average market returns, and are paying more and more at
Operational decisions relying on predictive distributions of electricity prices can result in significantly higher profits compared to those based solely on point forecasts. However, the majority of models developed in both academic and industrial settings provide only point predictions. To address
This paper investigates the enhancement of financial time series forecasting with the use of neural networks through supervised autoencoders, aiming to improve investment strategy performance. It specifically examines the impact of noise augmentation and triple barrier labeling on risk-adjusted retu
Tracking the build-up of financial vulnerabilities is a key component of financial stability policy. Due to the complexity of the financial system, this task is daunting, and there have been several proposals on how to manage this goal. One way to do this is by the creation of indices that act as a
In this paper, we present a new method for pricing CMS derivatives. We use Mallaivin’s calculus to establish a model-free connection between the price of a CMS derivative and a quadratic payoff. Then, we apply Watanabe’s expansions to quadratic payoffs case under local and stochastic local volatilit
This study examines the effects of macroeconomic policies on financial markets using a novel approach that combines Machine Learning (ML) techniques and causal inference. It focuses on the effect of interest rate changes made by the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) on the returns of fixed income and
We propose a novel method to improve estimation of asset returns for portfolio optimization. This approach first performs a monthly directional market forecast using an online decision tree. The decision tree is trained on a novel set of features engineered from portfolio theory: the efficient front
Financial news items are unstructured sources of information that can be mined to extract knowledge for market screening applications. Manual extraction of relevant information from the continuous stream of finance-related news is cumbersome and beyond the skills of many investors, who, at most, can
Finance-related news such as Bloomberg News, CNN Business and Forbes are valuable sources of real data for market screening systems. In news, an expert shares opinions beyond plain technical analyses that include context such as political, sociological and cultural factors. In the same text, the exp
We develop a liquidity-sensitive multivariate volatility framework to improve the estimation of time-varying covariance structures under market frictions. We introduce two novel portfolio-level liquidity measures, liquidity jump and liquidity diffusion, which capture magnitude and volatility of liqu
In traditional quantitative trading practice, navigating the complicated and dynamic financial market presents a persistent challenge. Fully capturing various market variables, including long-term information, as well as essential signals that may lead to profit remains a difficult task for learning
Microblogging platforms, of which Twitter is a representative example, are valuable information sources for market screening and financial models. In them, users voluntarily provide relevant information, including educated knowledge on investments, reacting to the state of the stock markets in real-
Micro-blogging sources such as the Twitter social network provide valuable real-time data for market prediction models. Investors’ opinions in this network follow the fluctuations of the stock markets and often include educated speculations on market opportunities that may have impact on the actions
We investigate an application of network centrality measures to portfolio optimization, by generalizing the method in [“Pozzi, Di Matteo and Aste, \emph{“Spread of risks across financial markets: better to invest in the peripheries”}, Scientific Reports 3:1665, 2013”], that however had significant l
This paper introduces a Large Language Model (LLM)-based multi-agent framework designed to enhance anomaly detection within financial market data, tackling the longstanding challenge of manually verifying system-generated anomaly alerts. The framework harnesses a collaborative network of AI agents,