'Egalitarian pooling and sharing of longevity risk', a.k.a. 'The many ways to skin a tontine cat'

There is little disagreement among insurance actuaries and financial economists about the societal benefits of longevity-risk pooling in the form of life annuities, defined benefit pensions, self-annuitization funds, and even tontine schemes. Indeed, the discounted value or cost of providing an inco

February 1, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Attention-based Dynamic Multilayer Graph Neural Networks for Loan Default Prediction

Whereas traditional credit scoring tends to employ only individual borrower- or loan-level predictors, it has been acknowledged for some time that connections between borrowers may result in default risk propagating over a network. In this paper, we present a model for credit risk assessment leverag

February 1, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Developing A Multi-Agent and Self-Adaptive Framework with Deep Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Portfolio Risk Management

Deep or reinforcement learning (RL) approaches have been adapted as reactive agents to quickly learn and respond with new investment strategies for portfolio management under the highly turbulent financial market environments in recent years. In many cases, due to the very complex correlations among

February 1, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Option pricing for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model by supervised deep learning

This paper aims to develop a supervised deep-learning scheme to compute call option prices for the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model with a non-martingale asset price process having infinite active jumps. In our deep learning scheme, teaching data is generated through the Monte Carlo method devel

February 1, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

The extension of Pearson correlation coefficient, measuring noise, and selecting features

Not a matter of serious contention, Pearson’s correlation coefficient is still the most important statistical association measure. Restricted to just two variables, this measure sometimes doesn’t live up to users’ needs and expectations. Specifically, a multivariable version of the correlation coeff

February 1, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Convergence of the deep BSDE method for stochastic control problems formulated through the stochastic maximum principle

It is well-known that decision-making problems from stochastic control can be formulated by means of a forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). Recently, the authors of Ji et al. 2022 proposed an efficient deep learning algorithm based on the stochastic maximum principle (SMP). In

January 30, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Improving Business Insurance Loss Models by Leveraging InsurTech Innovation

Recent transformative and disruptive advancements in the insurance industry have embraced various InsurTech innovations. In particular, with the rapid progress in data science and computational capabilities, InsurTech is able to integrate a multitude of emerging data sources, shedding light on oppor

January 30, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Partial Law Invariance and Risk Measures

We introduce the concept of partial law invariance, generalizing the concepts of law invariance and probabilistic sophistication widely used in decision theory, as well as statistical and financial applications. This new concept is motivated by practical considerations of decision making under uncer

January 30, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Sparse Portfolio Selection via Topological Data Analysis based Clustering

This paper uses topological data analysis (TDA) tools and introduces a data-driven clustering-based stock selection strategy tailored for sparse portfolio construction. Our asset selection strategy exploits the topological features of stock price movements to select a subset of topologically similar

January 30, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

CFTM: Continuous time fractional topic model

In this paper, we propose the Continuous Time Fractional Topic Model (cFTM), a new method for dynamic topic modeling. This approach incorporates fractional Brownian motion~(fBm) to effectively identify positive or negative correlations in topic and word distribution over time, revealing long-term de

January 29, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Credit Risk Meets Large Language Models: Building a Risk Indicator from Loan Descriptions in P2P Lending

Peer-to-peer (P2P) lending connects borrowers and lenders through online platforms but suffers from significant information asymmetry, as lenders often lack sufficient data to assess borrowers’ creditworthiness. This paper addresses this challenge by leveraging BERT, a Large Language Model (LLM) kno

January 29, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

From GARCH to Neural Network for Volatility Forecast

Volatility, as a measure of uncertainty, plays a crucial role in numerous financial activities such as risk management. The Econometrics and Machine Learning communities have developed two distinct approaches for financial volatility forecasting: the stochastic approach and the neural network (NN) a

January 29, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Robust Functional Data Analysis for Stochastic Evolution Equations in Infinite Dimensions

We develop an asymptotic theory for the jump robust measurement of covariations in the context of stochastic evolution equation in infinite dimensions. Namely, we identify scaling limits for realized covariations of solution processes with the quadratic covariation of the latent random process that

January 29, 2024 · 1 min · thequant.space

A Mean Field Game Approach to Relative Investment-Consumption Games with Habit Formation

This paper studies an optimal investment-consumption problem for competitive agents with exponential or power utilities and a common finite time horizon. Each agent regards the average of habit formation and wealth from all peers as benchmarks to evaluate the performance of her decision. We formulat

January 28, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Analytic Pricing of SOFR Futures Contracts with Smile and Skew

We introduce a perturbative formalism to solve the backward-looking futures pricing problem. The formalism is based on a time-ordered exponential series which allows to derive the functional form of the integral kernel associated to the backward-Kolmogorov diffusion PDE. We present an analytic prici

January 28, 2024 · 1 min · thequant.space

Estimation of domain truncation error for a system of PDEs arising in option pricing

In this paper, a multidimensional system of parabolic partial differential equations arising in European option pricing under a regime-switching market model is studied in details. For solving that numerically, one must truncate the domain and impose an artificial boundary data. By deriving an estim

January 28, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

The McCormick martingale optimal transport

Martingale optimal transport (MOT) often yields broad price bounds for options, constraining their practical applicability. In this study, we extend MOT by incorporating causality constraints among assets, inspired by the nonanticipativity condition of stochastic processes. This, however, introduces

January 28, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Fast and General Simulation of Lévy-driven OU processes for Energy Derivatives

Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes represent an intriguing class of stochastic processes that have garnered interest in the energy sector for their ability to capture typical features of market dynamics. However, in the current state of play, Monte Carlo simulations of these processes are

January 27, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

ESG driven pairs algorithm for sustainable trading: Analysis from the Indian market

This paper proposes an algorithmic trading framework integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) ratings with a pairs trading strategy. It addresses the demand for socially responsible investment solutions by developing a unique algorithm blending ESG data with methods for identifying co

January 26, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

FDR-Controlled Portfolio Optimization for Sparse Financial Index Tracking

In high-dimensional data analysis, such as financial index tracking or biomedical applications, it is crucial to select the few relevant variables while maintaining control over the false discovery rate (FDR). In these applications, strong dependencies often exist among the variables (e.g., stock re

January 26, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space