Optimal portfolio under ratio-type periodic evaluation in incomplete markets with stochastic factors

This paper studies a type of periodic utility maximization for portfolio management in an incomplete market model, where the underlying price diffusion process depends on some external stochastic factors. The portfolio performance is periodically evaluated on the relative ratio of two adjacent wealt

January 26, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Robust Estimation of the Tail Index of a Single Parameter Pareto Distribution from Grouped Data

Numerous robust estimators exist as alternatives to the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) when a completely observed ground-up loss severity sample dataset is available. However, the options for robust alternatives to MLE become significantly limited when dealing with grouped loss severity data, wi

January 26, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Tweet Influence on Market Trends: Analyzing the Impact of Social Media Sentiment on Biotech Stocks

This study investigates the relationship between tweet sentiment across diverse categories: news, company opinions, CEO opinions, competitor opinions, and stock market behavior in the biotechnology sector, with a focus on understanding the impact of social media discourse on investor sentiment and d

January 26, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Analysis of an aggregate loss model in a Markov renewal regime

In this article we consider an aggregate loss model with dependent losses. The losses occurrence process is governed by a two-state Markovian arrival process (MAP2), a Markov renewal process process that allows for (1) correlated inter-losses times, (2) non-exponentially distributed inter-losses tim

January 25, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Cash non-additive risk measures: horizon risk and generalized entropy

Horizon risk (see arXiv:2301.04971) is studied in the context of cash non-additive fully-dynamic risk measures induced by BSDEs. Furthermore, we introduce a risk measure based on generalized Tsallis entropy which can dynamically evaluate the riskiness of losses considering both horizon risk and inte

January 25, 2024 · 1 min · thequant.space

Higher order approximation of option prices in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models

We present an approximation method based on the mixing formula (Hull & White 1987, Romano & Touzi 1997) for pricing European options in Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models. This approximation is based on a Taylor expansion of the option price. It is implemented using a recursive algorithm that all

January 25, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

MTRGL:Effective Temporal Correlation Discerning through Multi-modal Temporal Relational Graph Learning

In this study, we explore the synergy of deep learning and financial market applications, focusing on pair trading. This market-neutral strategy is integral to quantitative finance and is apt for advanced deep-learning techniques. A pivotal challenge in pair trading is discerning temporal correlatio

January 25, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Self and mutually exciting point process embedding flexible residuals and intensity with discretely Markovian dynamics

This work introduces a self and mutually exciting point process that embeds flexible residuals and intensity with discretely Markovian dynamics. By allowing the integration of diverse residual distributions, this model serves as an extension of the Hawkes process, facilitating intensity modeling. Th

January 25, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

An Explicit Scheme for Pathwise XVA Computations

Motivated by the equations of cross valuation adjustments (XVAs) in the realistic case where capital is deemed fungible as a source of funding for variation margin, we introduce a simulation/regression scheme for a class of anticipated BSDEs, where the coefficient entails a conditional expected shor

January 24, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Real-time Risk Metrics for Programmatic Stablecoin Crypto Asset-Liability Management (CALM)

Stablecoins have turned out to be the “killer” use case of the growing digital asset space. However, risk management frameworks, including regulatory ones, have been largely absent. In this paper, we address the critical question of measuring and managing risk in stablecoin protocols, which operate

January 24, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

From Numbers to Words: Multi-Modal Bankruptcy Prediction Using the ECL Dataset

In this paper, we present ECL, a novel multi-modal dataset containing the textual and numerical data from corporate 10K filings and associated binary bankruptcy labels. Furthermore, we develop and critically evaluate several classical and neural bankruptcy prediction models using this dataset. Our f

January 23, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

New approximate stochastic dominance approaches for Enhanced Indexation models

In this paper, we discuss portfolio selection strategies for Enhanced Indexation (EI), which are based on stochastic dominance relations. The goal is to select portfolios that stochastically dominate a given benchmark but that, at the same time, must generate some excess return with respect to a ben

January 23, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimizing Transition Strategies for Small to Medium Sized Portfolios

This work discusses the benefits of constrained portfolio turnover strategies for small to medium-sized portfolios. We propose a dynamic multi-period model that aims to minimize transaction costs and maximize terminal wealth levels whilst adhering to strict portfolio turnover constraints. Our result

January 23, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Reference-dependent asset pricing with a stochastic consumption-dividend ratio

We study a discrete-time consumption-based capital asset pricing model under expectations-based reference-dependent preferences. More precisely, we consider an endowment economy populated by a representative agent who derives utility from current consumption and from gains and losses in consumption

January 23, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Are Charter Value and Supervision Aligned? A Segmentation Analysis

Previous work suggests that the charter value hypothesis is theoretically grounded and empirically supported, but not universally. Accordingly, this paper aims to perform an analysis of the relations between charter value, risk taking, and supervision, taking into account the relations’ complexity.

January 22, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Forecasting and Backtesting Gradient Allocations of Expected Shortfall

Capital allocation is a procedure for quantifying the contribution of each source of risk to aggregated risk. The gradient allocation rule, also known as the Euler principle, is a prevalent rule of capital allocation under which the allocated capital captures the diversification benefit of the margi

January 22, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

General duality and dual attainment for adapted transport

We investigate duality and existence of dual optimizers for several adapted optimal transport problems under minimal assumptions. This includes the causal and bicausal transport, the causal and bicausal barycenter problem, and a multimarginal problem incorporating causality constraints. Moreover, we

January 22, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Transformers with Attentive Federated Aggregation for Time Series Stock Forecasting

Recent innovations in transformers have shown their superior performance in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV). The ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions in sequential data has also triggered a great interest in time series modeling, leading to the wides

January 22, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

Functional Limit Theorems for Hawkes Processes

We prove that the long-run behavior of Hawkes processes is fully determined by the average number and the dispersion of child events. For subcritical processes we provide FLLNs and FCLTs under minimal conditions on the kernel of the process with the precise form of the limit theorems depending stron

January 21, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space

The geometry of multi-curve interest rate models

We study the problems of consistency and of the existence of finite-dimensional realizations for multi-curve interest rate models of Heath-Jarrow-Morton type, generalizing the geometric approach developed by T. Björk and co-authors in the classical single-curve setting. We characterize when a multi-

January 21, 2024 · 2 min · thequant.space