Dynamical thermalization and turbulence in social stratification models

We study the nonlinear chaotic dynamics in a system of linear oscillators coupled by social network links with an additional stratification of oscillator energies, or frequencies, and supplementary nonlinear interactions. It is argued that this system can be viewed as a model of social stratificatio

March 25, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Environmental CVA with K-Robust Wrong-Way Risk

Although climate and nature related scenario analysis is increasingly important in finance, operational implementations remain limited for translating long horizon environmental scenarios into counterparty credit risk measures used in pricing and regulatory capital. We propose an environmental valua

March 25, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Ordering results for extreme claim amounts based on random number of claims

Consider two sequences of heterogeneous and independent portfolios of risks $T_1,T_2,\ldots$ and $T^_{1}, T^_{2},\ldots$ and, let $N_1$ and $N_2$ be two positive integer-valued random variables, independent of $T_i’$ and $T^*_i$, respectively. In this article, we investigate different stochastic i

March 25, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Robust risk measures: an averaging approach

We develop an averaging approach to robust risk measurement under payoff uncertainty. Instead of taking a worst-case value over an uncertainty neighborhood, we weight nearby payoffs more heavily under a chosen metric and average the baseline risk measure. We prove continuity in the neighborhood radi

March 25, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

The Geometry of Risk: Path-Dependent Regulation and Anticipatory Hedging via the SigSwap

This paper introduces a transformative framework for managing path-dependent financial risk by shifting from traditional distribution-centric models to a geometry-based approach. We propose the SigSwap as a new regulatory instrument that allows market participants to decompose complex risk into term

March 25, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Utility-Invariant Support Selection and Eventwise Decoupling for Simultaneous Independent Multi-Outcome Bets

For simultaneous independent events with finitely many outcomes, consider the expected-utility problem with nonnegative wagers and an endogenous cash position. We prove a short support theorem for a broad class of strictly increasing strictly concave utilities. On any fixed support family and at any

March 25, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Conditionally Identifiable Latent Representation for Multivariate Time Series with Structural Dynamics

We propose the Identifiable Variational Dynamic Factor Model (iVDFM), which learns latent factors from multivariate time series with identifiability guarantees. By applying iVAE-style conditioning to the innovation process driving the dynamics rather than to the latent states, we show that factors a

March 24, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Designing Agentic AI-Based Screening for Portfolio Investment

We introduce a new agentic artificial intelligence (AI) platform for portfolio management. Our architecture consists of three layers. First, two large language model (LLM) agents are assigned specialized tasks: one agent screens for firms with desirable fundamentals, while a sentiment analysis agent

March 24, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

LineMVGNN: Anti-Money Laundering with Line-Graph-Assisted Multi-View Graph Neural Networks

Anti-money laundering (AML) systems are important for protecting the global economy. However, conventional rule-based methods rely on domain knowledge, leading to suboptimal accuracy and a lack of scalability. Graph neural networks (GNNs) for digraphs (directed graphs) can be applied to transaction

March 24, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Option pricing model under the G-expectation framework

G-expectation, as a sublinear expectation, provides a powerful framework for modeling uncertainty in financial markets. Motivated by the need for robust valuation under model uncertainty, this work develops a unified risk-neutral valuation approach within the G-expectation environment, yielding a no

March 24, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Portfolio Optimization under Recursive Utility via Reinforcement Learning

We study whether a risk-sensitive objective from asset-pricing theory – recursive utility – improves reinforcement learning for portfolio allocation. The Bellman equation under recursive utility involves a certainty equivalent (CE) of future value that has no closed form under observed returns; we

March 24, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Artificial Intelligence and Systemic Risk: A Unified Model of Performative Prediction, Algorithmic Herding, and Cognitive Dependency in Financial Markets

We develop a unified model in which AI adoption in financial markets generates systemic risk through three mutually reinforcing channels: performative prediction, algorithmic herding, and cognitive dependency. Within an extended rational expectations framework with endogenous adoption, we derive an

March 23, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Connecting Distributed Ledgers: Surveying Novel Interoperability Solutions in On-chain Finance

This paper emphasizes the critical role of interoperability in enabling efficient and secure communication for the fragmented distributed ledger ecosystem, particularly within on-chain finance. The purpose of this study is to streamline and accelerate empirical research on the intersection of cross-

March 23, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Discovering parametrizations of implied volatility with symbolic regression

We investigate the data-driven discovery of parametric representations for implied volatility slices. Using symbolic regression, we search for simple analytic formulas that approximate the total implied variance as a function of log-moneyness and maturity. Our approach generates candidate parametriz

March 23, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Financial Dynamics and Interconnected Risk of Liquid Restaking

Decentralized finance introduces new business models and use cases as part of digital finance. Restaking has recently emerged as a transformative mechanism in DeFi, promising extra yields but introducing complex and interconnected risks. The paper monitors the current restaking landscape, empiricall

March 23, 2026 · 3 min · thequant.space

Flexible Information Acquisition in the Kyle Model

We study an information acquisition problem in which an informed trader acquires costly information prior to trading in the Kyle equilibrium. The cost of information acquisition is represented by an entropy cost. Regardless of the prior distribution of the asset payoff, continuous signals are optima

March 23, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Here, there and everywhere: state-dependent time-inconsistent stochastic control

This paper addresses the challenge of time-inconsistent stochastic control within a continuous-time framework. Its primary focus lies in uncovering a probabilistic representation, specifically in the shape of a system of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). These equations encapsulate

March 23, 2026 · 1 min · thequant.space

Interoperability Effects: Extending DeFi Lending Risk Models to Multi-Chain Environments

On-chain lending has expanded across multiple distributed ledgers as DeFi becomes increasingly multi-chain. This environment introduces novel technical and financial mechanisms, particularly cross-blockchain communication and asset transfer protocols, yet cross-chain elements remain understudied in

March 23, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Mean Field Equilibrium Asset Pricing Models With Exponential Utility

This thesis develops equilibrium asset pricing models in incomplete markets with a large number of heterogeneous agents using mean field game theory. The market equilibrium is characterized by a novel form of mean field backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). First, we propose a theoreti

March 23, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Mislearning of Factor Risk Premia under Structural Breaks: A Misspecified Bayesian Learning Framework

While asset-pricing models increasingly recognize that factor risk premia are subject to structural change, existing literature typically assumes that investors correctly account for such instability. This paper studies how investors instead learn under a misspecified model that underestimates struc

March 23, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space