Although stochastic models driven by latent Markov processes are widely used, the classical importance sampling methods based on the exponential tilting for these models suffers from the difficulties in computing the eigenvalues and associated eigenfunctions and the plausibility of the indirect asym
This paper presents an agent based model of an electronic market with two types of trading agents. One type follows a mean reverting strategy and the other, the speculative trader, tracks the maximum realised return over recent trades. The speculators have a distribution of returns concentrated on n
Our work presents two fundamental contributions. On the application side, we tackle the challenging problem of predicting day-ahead crypto-currency prices. On the methodological side, a new dynamical modeling approach is proposed. Our approach keeps the probabilistic formulation of the state-space m
This paper introduces a novel approach for computing netting–set level and counterparty level exposures, such as Potential Future Exposure (PFE) and Expected Exposure (EE), along with associated sensitivities. The method is essentially an extension of the Fourier-cosine series expansion (COS) method
The use of machine learning to generate synthetic data has grown in popularity with the proliferation of text-to-image models and especially large language models. The core methodology these models use is to learn the distribution of the underlying data, similar to the classical methods common in fi
Sustainable investing refers to the integration of environmental and social aspects in investors’ decisions. We propose a novel methodology based on the Triangulated Maximally Filtered Graph and node2vec algorithms to construct an hedging portfolio for climate risk, represented by various risk facto
This research delves into the intricacies of Bitcoin, a decentralized peer-to-peer network, and its associated blockchain, which records all transactions since its inception. While this ensures integrity and transparency, the transparent nature of Bitcoin potentially compromises users’ privacy right
Kyle model in continuous time where the insider may be subject to legal penalties is considered. In equilibrium the insider internalises this legal risk by trading less aggressively. The equilibrium is characterised via the solution of a backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) whose termina
This paper studies some unconventional utility maximization problems when the ratio type relative portfolio performance is periodically evaluated over an infinite horizon. Meanwhile, the agent is prohibited from short-selling stocks. Our goal is to understand the impact of the periodic reward struct
The ability to construct a realistic simulator of financial exchanges, including reproducing the dynamics of the limit order book, can give insight into many counterfactual scenarios, such as a flash crash, a margin call, or changes in macroeconomic outlook. In recent years, agent-based models have
The primary innovation we pioneer – focused on blockchain information security – is called the Safe-House. The Safe-House is badly needed since there are many ongoing hacks and security concerns in the DeFi space right now. The Safe-House is a piece of engineering sophistication that utilizes existi
Credit Valuation Adjustment is a balance sheet item which is nowadays subject to active risk management by specialized traders. However, one of the most important risk factors, which is the vector of default intensities of the counterparty, affects in a non-differentiable way the most general Monte
We develop methods for the solution of inhomogeneous Robin type boundary value problems (BVPs) that arise for certain linear parabolic Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) on a half line, as well as a second order generalisation. We are able to obtain non-standard solutions to equations arising in
This paper examines the retirement decision, optimal investment, and consumption strategies under an age-dependent force of mortality. We formulate the optimization problem as a combined stochastic control and optimal stopping problem with a random time horizon, featuring three state variables: weal
We employ scoring functions, used in statistics for eliciting risk functionals, as cost functions in the Monge-Kantorovich (MK) optimal transport problem. This gives raise to a rich variety of novel asymmetric MK divergences, which subsume the family of Bregman-Wasserstein divergences. We show that
Neural networks are increasingly recognized as a powerful numerical solution technique for partial differential equations (PDEs) arising in diverse scientific computing domains, including quantum many-body physics. In the context of time-dependent PDEs, the dominant paradigm involves casting the app
We consider two data driven approaches, Reinforcement Learning (RL) and Deep Trajectory-based Stochastic Optimal Control (DTSOC) for hedging a European call option without and with transaction cost according to a quadratic hedging P&L objective at maturity (“variance-optimal hedging” or “final quadr
We examine optimization problems in which an investor has the opportunity to trade in $d$ stocks with the goal of maximizing her worst-case cost of cumulative gains and losses. Here, worst-case refers to taking into account all possible drift and volatility processes for the stocks that fall within
Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are decentralized digital tokens to represent the unique ownership of items. Recently, NFTs have been gaining popularity and at the same time bringing up issues, such as scams, racism, and sexism. Decentralization, a key attribute of NFT, contributes to some of the issues
This study presents an analytical approach to sector rotation, leveraging both factor models and fundamental metrics. We initiate with a systematic classification of sectors, followed by an empirical investigation into their returns. Through factor analysis, the paper underscores the significance of