Efficient option pricing in the rough Heston model using weak simulation schemes

We provide an efficient and accurate simulation scheme for the rough Heston model in the standard ($H>0$) as well as the hyper-rough regime ($H > -1/2$). The scheme is based on low-dimensional Markovian approximations of the rough Heston process derived in [“Bayer and Breneis, arXiv:2309.07023”], an

October 6, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Enhancing Financial Sentiment Analysis via Retrieval Augmented Large Language Models

Financial sentiment analysis is critical for valuation and investment decision-making. Traditional NLP models, however, are limited by their parameter size and the scope of their training datasets, which hampers their generalization capabilities and effectiveness in this field. Recently, Large Langu

October 6, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Estimation of market efficiency process within time-varying autoregressive models by extended Kalman filtering approach

This paper explores a time-varying version of weak-form market efficiency that is a key component of the so-called Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). One of the most common methodologies used for modeling and estimating a degree of market efficiency lies in an analysis of the serial autocorrelation i

October 6, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multi-Industry Simplex : A Probabilistic Extension of GICS

Accurate industry classification is a critical tool for many asset management applications. While the current industry gold-standard GICS (Global Industry Classification Standard) has proven to be reliable and robust in many settings, it has limitations that cannot be ignored. Fundamentally, GICS is

October 6, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Risk factor aggregation and stress testing

Stress testing refers to the application of adverse financial or macroeconomic scenarios to a portfolio. For this purpose, financial or macroeconomic risk factors are linked with asset returns, typically via a factor model. We expand the range of risk factors by adapting dimension-reduction techniqu

October 6, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Integration of Fractional Order Black-Scholes Merton with Neural Network

This study enhances option pricing by presenting unique pricing model fractional order Black-Scholes-Merton (FOBSM) which is based on the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) model. The main goal is to improve the precision and authenticity of option pricing, matching them more closely with the financial land

October 5, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Linkages among the Foreign Exchange, Stock, and Bond Markets in Japan and the United States

While economic theory explains the linkages among the financial markets of different countries, empirical studies mainly verify the linkages through Granger causality, without considering latent variables or instantaneous effects. Their findings are inconsistent regarding the existence of causal lin

October 4, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Resolving a Clearing Member's Default, A Radner Equilibrium Approach

For vanilla derivatives that constitute the bulk of investment banks’ hedging portfolios, central clearing through central counterparties (CCPs) has become hegemonic. A key mandate of a CCP is to provide an efficient and proper clearing member default resolution procedure. When a clearing member def

October 4, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Bitcoin versus S&P 500 Index: Return and Risk Analysis

The S&P 500 index is considered the most popular trading instrument in financial markets. With the rise of cryptocurrencies over the past years, Bitcoin has also grown in popularity and adoption. The paper aims to analyze the daily return distribution of the Bitcoin and S&P 500 index and assess thei

October 3, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Navigating Uncertainty in ESG Investing

The widespread confusion among investors regarding Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) rankings assigned by rating agencies has underscored a critical issue in sustainable investing. To address this uncertainty, our research has devised methods that not only recognize this ambiguity but also

October 3, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Robust Long-Term Growth Rate of Expected Utility for Leveraged ETFs

This paper analyzes the robust long-term growth rate of expected utility and expected return from holding a leveraged exchange-traded fund (LETF). When the Markovian model parameters in the reference asset are uncertain, the robust long-term growth rate is derived by analyzing the worst-case paramet

October 3, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Signature Methods in Stochastic Portfolio Theory

In the context of stochastic portfolio theory we introduce a novel class of portfolios which we call linear path-functional portfolios. These are portfolios which are determined by certain transformations of linear functions of a collections of feature maps that are non-anticipative path functionals

October 3, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Utility-based acceptability indices

In this short paper we introduce a new class of performance measures based on certainty equivalents defined via scaled utility functions. We analyse their properties, show that the corresponding portfolio optimization problem is well-posed under generic conditions, and analyse the link between portf

October 3, 2023 · 1 min · thequant.space

Automated regime detection in multidimensional time series data using sliced Wasserstein k-means clustering

Recent work has proposed Wasserstein k-means (Wk-means) clustering as a powerful method to identify regimes in time series data, and one-dimensional asset returns in particular. In this paper, we begin by studying in detail the behaviour of the Wasserstein k-means clustering algorithm applied to syn

October 2, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

CAD: Clustering And Deep Reinforcement Learning Based Multi-Period Portfolio Management Strategy

In this paper, we present a novel trading strategy that integrates reinforcement learning methods with clustering techniques for portfolio management in multi-period trading. Specifically, we leverage the clustering method to categorize stocks into various clusters based on their financial indices.

October 2, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Combining Deep Learning and GARCH Models for Financial Volatility and Risk Forecasting

In this paper, we develop a hybrid approach to forecasting the volatility and risk of financial instruments by combining common econometric GARCH time series models with deep learning neural networks. For the latter, we employ Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) networks, whereas four different specification

October 2, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multi-period static hedging of European options

We consider the hedging of European options when the price of the underlying asset follows a single-factor Markovian framework. By working in such a setting, Carr and Wu \cite{carr2014static} derived a spanning relation between a given option and a continuum of shorter-term options written on the sa

October 2, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

A semi-Lagrangian $ε$-monotone Fourier method for continuous withdrawal GMWBs under jump-diffusion with stochastic interest rate

We develop an efficient pricing approach for guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits (GMWBs) with continuous withdrawals under a realistic modeling setting with jump-diffusions and stochastic interest rate. Utilizing an impulse stochastic control framework, we formulate the no-arbitrage GMWB pricing

October 1, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

NoxTrader: LSTM-Based Stock Return Momentum Prediction for Quantitative Trading

We introduce NoxTrader, a sophisticated system designed for portfolio construction and trading execution with the primary objective of achieving profitable outcomes in the stock market, specifically aiming to generate moderate to long-term profits. The underlying learning process of NoxTrader is roo

October 1, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Robust Asset-Liability Management

How should financial institutions hedge their balance sheets against interest rate risk when managing long-term assets and liabilities? We address this question by proposing a bond portfolio solution based on ambiguity-averse preferences, which generalizes classical immunization and accommodates arb

October 1, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space