Can Blindfolded LLMs Still Trade? An Anonymization-First Framework for Portfolio Optimization

For LLM trading agents to be genuinely trustworthy, they must demonstrate understanding of market dynamics rather than exploitation of memorized ticker associations. Building responsible multi-agent systems demands rigorous signal validation: proving that predictions reflect legitimate patterns, not

March 18, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

LR-Robot: A Unified Supervised Intelligent Framework for Real-Time Systematic Literature Reviews with Large Language Models

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and natural language processing (NLP) have enabled tools to support systematic literature reviews (SLRs), yet existing frameworks often produce outputs that are efficient but contextually limited, requiring substantial expert oversight.The framework em

March 18, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multivariate GARCH and portfolio variance prediction: A forecast reconciliation perspective

We assess the advantage of combining univariate and multivariate portfolio risk forecasts with the aid of forecast reconciliation techniques. In our analyzes, we assume knowledge of portfolio weights, a standard for portfolio risk management applications. With an extensive simulation experiment, we

March 18, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multivariate Residual Estimation Risk

The purpose of this paper is to describe and extend the use of the newly-introduced measure, residual estimation risk. Following the seminal work of Bignozzi and Tsanakas, the quantification of residual estimation risk is proposed in a multivariate framework. Our aim is to provide a succinct and pra

March 18, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Robust quasi-convex risk measures and applications

This paper develops a unified framework for the robustification of risk measures beyond the classical convex and cash-additive setting. We consider general risk measures on Lp spaces and construct their robust counterparts through families of uncertainty sets that capture ambiguity. Two complementar

March 18, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Discrimination-insensitive pricing

Rendering fair prices for financial, credit, and insurance products is of ethical and regulatory interest. In many jurisdictions, discriminatory covariates, such as gender and ethnicity, are prohibited from use in pricing such instruments. In this work, we propose a discrimination-insensitive pricin

March 17, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

From Natural Language to Executable Option Strategies via Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at general code generation, yet translating natural-language trading intents into correct option strategies remains challenging. Real-world option design requires reasoning over massive, multi-dimensional option chain data with strict constraints, which often overw

March 17, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Open vs. Sealed: Auction Format Choice for Maximal Extractable Value

We study optimal auction design for Maximum Extractable Value (MEV) auction markets on Ethereum. Using a dataset of 2.2 million transactions across three major orderflow providers, we establish three empirical regularities: extracted values follow a log-normal distribution with extreme right-tail co

March 17, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Shallow Representation of Option Implied Information

Option prices encode the market’s collective outlook through implied density and implied volatility. An explicit link between implied density and implied volatility translates the risk-neutrality of the former into conditions on the latter to rule out static arbitrage. Despite earlier recognition of

March 17, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Short-horizon Duesenberry Equilibrium

We develop a continuous-time general equilibrium framework for economies with a heterogeneous population – modeled as a continuum – that repeatedly optimizes over short horizons under relative-income (Duesenberry-type) criteria. The cross-section evolves through a Brownian flow on a type space, tr

March 17, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Portfolio-Anchored Frequency-Severity Risk Index for Trip and Driver Assessment Using Telematics Signals

In this paper, we propose a novel frequency-severity joint trip-level risk index that combines the frequency of abnormal driving patterns with a severity component reflecting how extreme such behavior is relative to a portfolio-level baseline. Severity is quantified through an inverse-probability pe

March 16, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

A stochastic SIR model for cyber contagion: application to granular growth of firms and to insurance portfolio

This work evaluates the impact of contagious cyber-events, over a finite horizon, on firms’ financial health and on a cyber insurance portfolio. Our approach builds on key empirical findings from economics and cybersecurity. In economics, firm size and growth-rate distributions are non-Gaussian and

March 16, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Flow Taxes, Stock Taxes, and Portfolio Choice: A Generalised Neutrality Result

A proportional wealth tax - a levy on the stock of wealth - preserves portfolio neutrality by acting as a uniform drift shift in the Fokker-Planck equation for wealth dynamics. We extend this result to the full system of ownership taxes (eierkostnader) that a shareholder faces: a corporate tax on gr

March 16, 2026 · 3 min · thequant.space

Heterogeneous Returns and Wealth Tax Neutrality: A Fokker-Planck Framework

We extend the Fokker-Planck framework of Froseth (2026, arXiv:2603.05283) to populations of investors with heterogeneous, persistent return-generating ability. When the drift coefficient in the Langevin equation for log-wealth varies across investors, the proportional wealth tax remains a uniform dr

March 16, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Hyper-Adaptive Momentum Dynamics for Native Cubic Portfolio Optimization: Avoiding Quadratization Distortion in Higher-Order Cardinality-Constrained Search

We study cubic cardinality-constrained portfolio optimization, a higher-order extension of the standard Markowitz formulation where three-way sector co-movement terms augment the quadratic risk-return objective. Classical heuristics like simulated annealing (SA) and tabu search require Rosenberg qua

March 16, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Risk-Based Auto-Deleveraging

Auto-deleveraging (ADL) mechanisms are a critical yet understudied component of risk management on cryptocurrency futures exchanges. When available margin and other loss-absorbing resources are insufficient to cover losses following large price moves, exchanges reduce positions and socialize losses

March 16, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Some general results on risk budgeting portfolios

Given a reference risk measure, the risk budgeting is the portfolio where each asset contributes a predetermined amount to the total risk. We propose a novel approach, alternative to the ones proposed in the literature, for the calculation of the risk budgeting portfolio. This different perspective

March 16, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Beyond Prompting: An Autonomous Framework for Systematic Factor Investing via Agentic AI

This paper develops an autonomous framework for systematic factor investing via agentic AI. Rather than relying on sequential manual prompts, our approach operationalizes the model as a self-directed engine that endogenously formulates interpretable trading signals. To mitigate data snooping biases,

March 15, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Curved Greeks: A Geometric Layer for Option P&L Adjustments

Short-horizon option book management relies on P&L expansions in a small set of risk factors. In practice, the quadratic term and common desk adjustments (smile corrections, execution cost add-ons) depend on the chosen factor coordinates, so predicted second-order P&L can change when moving between

March 15, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

E-TRENDS: Enhanced LSTM Trend Forecasting for Equities

Trend-following strategies underpin many systematic trading approaches yet struggle under nonstationary and nonlinear market regimes. We propose an LSTM-based framework to forecast next-day trend differences ($Δ_t$) for the top 30 S&P 500 equities, validated across market cycles (2005–2025). Key c

March 15, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space