This papers proposes a generic, high-level methodology for generating forecast combinations that would deliver the optimal linearly combined forecast in terms of the mean-squared forecast error if one had access to two population quantities: the mean vector and the covariance matrix of the vector of
In this paper we study the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility for European and arithmetic Asian call options with fixed strike price. The asset price is assumed to follow the Bachelier model with a general stochastic volatility process. Using techniques of the Malliavin calcu
This paper is concerned with a long standing optimal dividend payout problem subject to the so-called ratcheting constraint, that is, the dividend payout rate shall be non-decreasing over time and is thus self-path-dependent. The surplus process is modeled by a drifted Brownian motion process and th
In this article we introduce a portfolio optimisation framework, in which the use of rough path signatures (Lyons, 1998) provides a novel method of incorporating path-dependencies in the joint signal-asset dynamics, naturally extending traditional factor models, while keeping the resulting formulas
This paper introduces the concept of a global financial market for environmental indices, addressing sustainability concerns and aiming to attract institutional investors. Risk mitigation measures are implemented to manage inherent risks associated with investments in this new financial market. We m
In this study, we introduce a physical model inspired by statistical physics for predicting price volatility and expected returns by leveraging Level 3 order book data. By drawing parallels between orders in the limit order book and particles in a physical system, we establish unique measures for th
We propose the use of conversational GPT models for easy and quick few-shot text classification in the financial domain using the Banking77 dataset. Our approach involves in-context learning with GPT-3.5 and GPT-4, which minimizes the technical expertise required and eliminates the need for expensiv
We propose a new multistep deep learning-based algorithm for the resolution of moderate to high dimensional nonlinear backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) and their corresponding parabolic partial differential equations (PDE). Our algorithm relies on the iterated time discretisation of
We develop and implement a non-parametric method for joint exact calibration of a local volatility model and a correlated stochastic short rate model using semimartingale optimal transport. The method relies on the duality results established in Joseph, Loeper, and Obloj, 2023 and jointly calibrates
In the field of financial fraud detection, understanding the underlying patterns and dynamics is important to ensure effective and reliable systems. This research introduces a new technique, “TimeTrail,” which employs advanced temporal correlation analysis to explain complex financial fraud patterns
This paper presents a synthesis of the theories of portfolio generating functions and option pricing. The theory of portfolio generation is extended to measure the value of portfolios generated by positive C^{2,1} functions of asset prices X_1,… , X_n directly, rather than with respect to a numera
In this paper we study a class of HJB equations which solve for equilibria for general time-inconsistent deterministic linear quadratic control problems within the intra-personal game theoretic framework, where the inconsistency arises from non-exponential discount functions. We characterize the sol
Financial exchanges across the world use limit order books (LOBs) to process orders and match trades. For research purposes it is important to have large scale efficient simulators of LOB dynamics. LOB simulators have previously been implemented in the context of agent-based models (ABMs), reinforce
We explored the potential applications of various Quantum Algorithms for stock price prediction by conducting a series of experimental simulations using both Classical as well as Quantum Hardware. Firstly, we extracted various stock price indicators, such as Moving Averages (MA), Average True Range
We discuss the economic reasons why the predictions of price and return statistical moments in the coming decades, in the best case, will be limited by their averages and volatilities. That limits the accuracy of the forecasts of price and return probabilities by Gaussian distributions. The economic
We present explicit oracles designed to be used in Grover’s algorithm to match investor preferences. Specifically, the oracles select portfolios with returns and standard deviations exceeding and falling below certain thresholds, respectively. One potential use case for the oracles is selecting port
Spatial and spatiotemporal volatility models are a class of models designed to capture spatial dependence in the volatility of spatial and spatiotemporal data. Spatial dependence in the volatility may arise due to spatial spillovers among locations; that is, if two locations are in close proximity,
We introduce a framework for quantifying propagation of uncertainty arising in a dynamic setting. Specifically, we define dynamic uncertainty sets designed explicitly for discrete stochastic processes over a finite time horizon. These dynamic uncertainty sets capture the uncertainty surrounding stoc
The collective risk model differentiates usually between claims frequencies (and their distribution) and claim sizes (and their distribution). For the claims frequencies typically classical discrete distributions are considered, such as Binomial-, Negative binomial- or Poisson distributions. Since t
Developing a generative model of realistic order flow in financial markets is a challenging open problem, with numerous applications for market participants. Addressing this, we propose the first end-to-end autoregressive generative model that generates tokenized limit order book (LOB) messages. The