Educational Game on Cryptocurrency Investment: Using Microeconomic Decision Making to Understand Macroeconomics Principles

Gamification is an effective strategy for motivating and engaging users, which is grounded in business, marketing, and management by designing games in nongame contexts. Gamifying education, which consists of the design and study of educational games, is an emerging trend. However, the existing clas

January 25, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

New developments in econophysics: Option pricing formulas

We synthesize and discuss some new developments in econophysics. In doing so, we focus on option pricing. We relax the assumptions of constant volatility and interest rate. In doing so, we rely on the square root of the Brownian motion. We also provide simple, closed-form pricing formulas for the Am

January 25, 2023 · 1 min · thequant.space

Select and Trade: Towards Unified Pair Trading with Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning

Pair trading is one of the most effective statistical arbitrage strategies which seeks a neutral profit by hedging a pair of selected assets. Existing methods generally decompose the task into two separate steps: pair selection and trading. However, the decoupling of two closely related subtasks can

January 25, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Valuation of the Convertible Bonds under Penalty TF model using Finite Element Method

In this paper, the TF system of two-coupled Black-Scholes equations for pricing the convertible bonds is solved numerically by using the P1 and P2 finite elements with the inequality constraints approximated by the penalty method. The corresponding finite element ODE system is numerically solved by

January 25, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Bitcoin Does Not Hedge Inflation

This paper examines the response of major cryptocurrencies to macroeconomic news announcements (MNA). While other cryptocurrencies exhibit no reaction to major MNA, Bitcoin responds negatively to inflation surprise. Price of Bitcoin decreases by 24 bps in response to a 1 standard deviation inflation

January 24, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Constructing Copulas Using Corrected Hermite Polynomial Expansion for Estimating Cross Foreign Exchange Volatility

Copulas are used to construct joint distributions in many areas. In some problems, it is necessary to deal with correlation structures that are more complicated than the commonly known copulas. A finite order multivariate Hermite polynomial expansion, as an approximation of a joint density function,

January 24, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Macroeconomic forecasting and sovereign risk assessment using deep learning techniques

In this study, we propose a novel approach of nowcasting and forecasting the macroeconomic status of a country using deep learning techniques. We focus particularly on the US economy but the methodology can be applied also to other economies. Specifically US economy has suffered a severe recession f

January 24, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

An Optimal Control Strategy for Execution of Large Stock Orders Using LSTMs

In this paper, we simulate the execution of a large stock order with real data and general power law in the Almgren and Chriss model. The example that we consider is the liquidation of a large position executed over the course of a single trading day in a limit order book. Transaction costs are incu

January 23, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

DeFi Lending During The Merge

Lending protocols in decentralized finance enable the permissionless exchange of capital from lenders to borrowers without relying on a trusted third party for clearing or market-making. Interest rates are set by the supply and demand of capital according to a pre-defined function. In the lead-up to

January 23, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Expectile hidden Markov regression models for analyzing cryptocurrency returns

In this paper we develop a linear expectile hidden Markov model for the analysis of cryptocurrency time series in a risk management framework. The methodology proposed allows to focus on extreme returns and describe their temporal evolution by introducing in the model time-dependent coefficients evo

January 23, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Model Based Reinforcement Learning with Non-Gaussian Environment Dynamics and its Application to Portfolio Optimization

With the fast development of quantitative portfolio optimization in financial engineering, lots of AI-based algorithmic trading strategies have demonstrated promising results, among which reinforcement learning begins to manifest competitive advantages. However, the environment from real financial m

January 23, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Quantum Monte Carlo algorithm for option pricing and its complexity analysis

In this paper we provide a quantum Monte Carlo algorithm to solve multidimensional Black-Scholes PDEs with correlation for option pricing. The payoff function of the option is of general form and is only required to be continuous and piecewise affine, which covers most of the relevant payoff functio

January 23, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

StockEmotions: Discover Investor Emotions for Financial Sentiment Analysis and Multivariate Time Series

There has been growing interest in applying NLP techniques in the financial domain, however, resources are extremely limited. This paper introduces StockEmotions, a new dataset for detecting emotions in the stock market that consists of 10,000 English comments collected from StockTwits, a financial

January 23, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

The Combinational Mutation Strategy of Differential Evolution Algorithm for Pricing Vanilla Options and Its Implementation on Data during Covid-19 Pandemic

Investors always want to know about the profit and the risk that they will be get before buying some assets. Our main focus is getting the profit and the probability of getting that profit using the differential evolution algorithm for vanilla option pricing on data before and during COVID-19 pandem

January 23, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Decarbonization of financial markets: a mean-field game approach

We develop a financial market model in which a large population of firms chooses dynamic emission strategies under climate transition risk, interacting with both environmentally concerned and neutral investors. Firms face a trade-off between financial returns and environmental performance, while the

January 22, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Labor Income Risk and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns

This paper explores asset pricing implications of unemployment risk from sectoral shifts. I proxy for this risk using cross-industry dispersion (CID), defined as a mean absolute deviation of returns of 49 industry portfolios. CID peaks during periods of accelerated sectoral reallocation and heighten

January 22, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Silkswap: An asymmetric automated market maker model for stablecoins

Silkswap is an automated market maker model designed for efficient stablecoin trading with minimal price impact. The original purpose of Silkswap is to facilitate the trading of fiat-pegged stablecoins with the stablecoin Silk, but it can be applied to any pair of stablecoins. The Silkswap invariant

January 21, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

About constant-product automated market makers

Constant-product market making functions were first introduced by Hayden Adams in 2017 to create Uniswap, a decentralised exchange on Ethereum. This enables users to exchange assets at any given rate. Some variations such as Balancer and Curve were later introduced. In this paper, we analyse the mat

January 20, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Asynchronous Deep Double Duelling Q-Learning for Trading-Signal Execution in Limit Order Book Markets

We employ deep reinforcement learning (RL) to train an agent to successfully translate a high-frequency trading signal into a trading strategy that places individual limit orders. Based on the ABIDES limit order book simulator, we build a reinforcement learning OpenAI gym environment and utilise it

January 20, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space

Modeling COVID-19 pandemic with financial markets models: The case of Jaén (Spain)

The main objective of this work is to test whether some stochastic models typically used in financial markets could be applied to the COVID-19 pandemic. To this end we have implemented the ARIMAX and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) models originally designed for interest rate pricing but transformed by us

January 20, 2023 · 2 min · thequant.space