Greenhouse gases emissions: estimating corporate non-reported emissions using interpretable machine learning

As of 2022, greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reporting and auditing are not yet compulsory for all companies and methodologies of measurement and estimation are not unified. We propose a machine learning-based model to estimate scope 1 and scope 2 GHG emissions of companies not reporting them yet. O

December 21, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

The Quantitative Finance Aspects of Automated Market Markers in DeFi

Automated Market Makers (AMMs) are a class of smart contracts on Ethereum and other blockchains that “make markets” autonomously. In other words, AMMs stand ready to trade with other market participants that interact with them, at the conditions determined by the AMM. In this this paper, which relie

December 21, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

The quintic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck volatility model that jointly calibrates SPX & VIX smiles

The quintic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck volatility model is a stochastic volatility model where the volatility process is a polynomial function of degree five of a single Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with fast mean reversion and large vol-of-vol. The model is able to achieve remarkable joint fits of the SPX-VI

December 21, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Beyond Surrogate Modeling: Learning the Local Volatility Via Shape Constraints

We explore the abilities of two machine learning approaches for no-arbitrage interpolation of European vanilla option prices, which jointly yield the corresponding local volatility surface: a finite dimensional Gaussian process (GP) regression approach under no-arbitrage constraints based on prices,

December 20, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

DeFi Risk Transfer: Towards A Fully Decentralized Insurance Protocol

In this paper, we propose a fully decentralized and smart contract-based insurance protocol. We identify various issues in the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) insurance context and propose a solution to overcome these shortcomings. We introduce an economic model that allows for risk transfer without an

December 20, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

DeFi: data-driven characterisation of Uniswap v3 ecosystem & an ideal crypto law for liquidity pools

Uniswap is a Constant Product Market Maker built around liquidity pools, where pairs of tokens are exchanged subject to a fee that is proportional to the size of transactions. At the time of writing, there exist more than 6,000 pools associated with Uniswap v3, implying that empirical investigations

December 20, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Does Peer-Reviewed Research Help Predict Stock Returns?

Mining 29,000 accounting ratios for t-statistics $> 2.0$ leads to cross-sectional return predictability similar to the peer review process. For both, $\approx50%$ of predictability remains after the original sample periods. This finding holds for many categories of research, including research with

December 20, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Dynamic spending and portfolio decisions with a soft social norm

We explore the implications of a preference ordering for an investor-consumer with a strong preference for keeping consumption above an exogenous social norm, but who is willing to tolerate occasional dips below it. We do this by splicing two CRRA preference orderings, one with high curvature below

December 20, 2022 · 3 min · thequant.space

Multi-asset market making under the quadratic rough Heston

Given the promising results on joint modeling of SPX/VIX smiles of the recently introduced quadratic rough Heston model, we consider a multi-asset market making problem on SPX and its derivatives, e.g. VIX futures, SPX and VIX options. The market maker tries to maximize its profit from spread captur

December 20, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Prediction of Auto Insurance Risk Based on t-SNE Dimensionality Reduction

Correct risk estimation of policyholders is of great significance to auto insurance companies. While the current tools used in this field have been proven in practice to be quite efficient and beneficial, we argue that there is still a lot of room for development and improvement in the auto insuranc

December 19, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Risk Theory and Pricing of "Pay-for-Performance" Business Models

Technology trends as digitalization and Industry 4.0 initiate a growing demand for new business models. Most of this models requires a fundamental shift of operational and financial risks between seller and buyer. A key question is therefore how to include additional risk pricing and hedging. In thi

December 19, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multiarmed Bandits Problem Under the Mean-Variance Setting

The classical multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem involves a learner and a collection of K independent arms, each with its own ex ante unknown independent reward distribution. At each one of a finite number of rounds, the learner selects one arm and receives new information. The learner often faces an

December 18, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Joint SPX-VIX calibration with Gaussian polynomial volatility models: deep pricing with quantization hints

We consider the joint SPX-VIX calibration within a general class of Gaussian polynomial volatility models in which the volatility of the SPX is assumed to be a polynomial function of a Gaussian Volterra process defined as a stochastic convolution between a kernel and a Brownian motion. By performing

December 16, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Moate Simulation of Stochastic Processes

A novel approach called Moate Simulation is presented to provide an accurate numerical evolution of probability distribution functions represented on grids arising from stochastic differential processes where initial conditions are specified. Where the variables of stochastic differential equations

December 16, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Pricing Bermudan Swaption under Two Factor Hull-White Model with Fast Gauss Transform

This paper describes a fast and stable algorithm for evaluating Bermudan swaption under the two factor Hull-White model. We discretize the calculation of the expected value in the evaluation of Bermudan swaption by numerical integration, and Gaussian kernel sums appears in it. The fast Gauss transfo

December 16, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Systemic robustness: a mean-field particle system approach

This paper is concerned with the problem of budget control in a large particle system modeled by stochastic differential equations involving hitting times, which arises from considerations of systemic risk in a regional financial network. Motivated by Tang and Tsai (Ann. Probab., 46(2018), pp. 1597{

December 16, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Using Intermarket Data to Evaluate the Efficient Market Hypothesis with Machine Learning

In its semi-strong form, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) implies that technical analysis will not reveal any hidden statistical trends via intermarket data analysis. If technical analysis on intermarket data reveals trends which can be leveraged to significantly outperform the stock market, th

December 16, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Flexible Commodity Skew Model with Maturity Effects

We propose a non-parametric extension with leverage functions to the Andersen commodity curve model. We calibrate this model to market data for WTI and NG including option skew at the standard maturities. While the model can be calibrated by an analytical formula for the deterministic rate case, the

December 15, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Order routing and market quality: Who benefits from internalisation?

We analyse two models of liquidity provision to determine the retail traders’ preference for marketable order routing. Order internalization is captured by a model of market makers competing for the retail order flow in a Bertrand fashion. On the other hand, the price-taking competitive liquidity pr

December 15, 2022 · 2 min · thequant.space

Pathwise uniqueness for singular stochastic Volterra equations with Hölder coefficients

Pathwise uniqueness is established for a class of one-dimensional stochastic Volterra equations driven by Brownian motion with singular kernels and Hölder continuous diffusion coefficients. Consequently, the existence of unique strong solutions is obtained for this class of stochastic Volterra equat

December 15, 2022 · 1 min · thequant.space