Trading in CEXs and DEXs with Priority Fees and Stochastic Delays

We develop a mixed control framework that combines absolutely continuous controls with impulse interventions subject to stochastic execution delays. The model extends current impulse control formulations by allowing (i) the controller to choose the mean of the stochastic delay of their impulses, and

February 11, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

When Fusion Helps and When It Breaks: View-Aligned Robustness in Same-Source Financial Imaging

We study same-source multi-view learning and adversarial robustness for next-day direction prediction using two deterministic, window-aligned image views derived from the same time series: an OHLCV-rendered chart (ohlcv) and a technical-indicator matrix (indic). To control label ambiguity from near-

February 11, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

AlphaForgeBench: Benchmarking End-to-End Trading Strategy Design with Large Language Models

The rapid advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to a surge of financial benchmarks, evolving from static knowledge tests to interactive trading simulations. However, current evaluations of real-time trading performance overlook a critical failure mode: severe behavioral instability in

February 10, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Deep Learning for Electricity Price Forecasting: A Review of Day-Ahead, Intraday, and Balancing Electricity Markets

Electricity price forecasting (EPF) plays a critical role in power system operation and market decision making. While existing review studies have provided valuable insights into forecasting horizons, market mechanisms, and evaluation practices, the rapid adoption of deep learning has introduced inc

February 10, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

How can the dual martingale help solving the primal optimal stopping problem?

Motivated by recent results on the dual formulation of optimal stopping problems, we investigate in this short paper how the knowledge of an approximating dual martingale can improve the efficiency of primal methods. In particular, we show on numerical examples that accurate approximations of a dual

February 10, 2026 · 1 min · thequant.space

Incentive Pareto Efficiency in Monopoly Insurance Markets with Adverse Selection

We study a monopolistic insurance market with hidden information, where the agent’s type $θ$ is private information that is unobservable to the insurer, and it is drawn from a continuum of types. The hidden type affects both the loss distribution and the risk attitude of the agent. Within this frame

February 10, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Partially Active Automated Market Makers

We introduce a new class of automated market maker (AMM), the \emph{partially active automated market maker} (PA-AMM). PA-AMM divides its reserves into two parts, the active and the passive parts, and uses only the active part for trading. At the top of every block, such a division is done again to

February 10, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Seeing the Goal, Missing the Truth: Human Accountability for AI Bias

This research explores how human-defined goals influence the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) through purpose-conditioned cognition. Using financial prediction tasks, we show that revealing the downstream use (e.g., predicting stock returns or earnings) of LLM outputs leads the LLM to genera

February 10, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Almost sure null bankruptcy of testing-by-betting strategies

The bounded mean betting procedure serves as a crucial interface between the domains of (1) sequential, anytime-valid statistical inference, and (2) online learning and portfolio selection algorithms. While recent work in both domains has established the exponential wealth growth of numerous betting

February 9, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Comparing Mixture, Box, and Wasserstein Ambiguity Sets in Distributionally Robust Asset Liability Management

Asset Liability Management (ALM) represents a fundamental challenge for financial institutions, particularly pension funds, which must navigate the tension between generating competitive investment returns and ensuring the solvency of long-term obligations. To address the limitations of traditional

February 9, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Consumption-Investment with anticipative noise

We revisit the classical Merton consumption–investment problem when risky-asset returns are modeled by stochastic differential equations interpreted through a general $α$-integral, interpolating between Itô, Stratonovich, and related conventions. Holding preferences and the investment opportunity s

February 9, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Nansde-net: A neural sde framework for generating time series with memory

Modeling time series with long- or short-memory characteristics is a fundamental challenge in many scientific and engineering domains. While fractional Brownian motion has been widely used as a noise source to capture such memory effects, its incompatibility with Itô calculus limits its applicabilit

February 9, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Nontrivial Upper Bound on the Out-of-Sample $R^2$ in Return Forecasting

This study establishes a nontrivial upper bound on the out-of-sample $R^2$ ($R^2_{\text{OOS}}$) in return forecasting. In particular, we define a coin-flip oracle model that, under the same directional accuracy, theoretically outperforms practical models in terms of MSE. The $R^2_{\text{OOS}}$ of th

February 8, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal Quantum Speedups for Repeatedly Nested Expectation Estimation

We study the estimation of repeatedly nested expectations (RNEs) with a constant horizon (number of nestings) using quantum computing. We propose a quantum algorithm that achieves $\varepsilon$-error with cost $\tilde O(\varepsilon^{-1})$, up to logarithmic factors. Standard lower bounds show this s

February 8, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Perfectly Fitting CDO Prices Across Tranches: A Theoretical Framework with Efficient Algorithms

This paper addresses a key challenge in CDO modeling: achieving a perfect fit to market prices across all tranches using a single, consistent model. The existence of such a perfect-fit model implies the absence of arbitrage among CDO tranches and is thus essential for unified risk management and the

February 8, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Continuous Program Search

Genetic Programming yields interpretable programs, but small syntactic mutations can induce large, unpredictable behavioral shifts, degrading locality and sample efficiency. We frame this as an operator-design problem: learn a continuous program space where latent distance has behavioral meaning, th

February 7, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Joint survival annuity derivative valuation in the linear-rational Wishart mortality model

This study proposes a linear-rational joint survival mortality model based on the Wishart process. The Wishart process, which is a stochastic continuous matrix affine process, allows for a general dependency between the mortality intensities that are constructed to be positive. Using the linear-rati

February 6, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

QuantaAlpha: An Evolutionary Framework for LLM-Driven Alpha Mining

Financial markets are noisy and non-stationary, making alpha mining highly sensitive to noise in backtesting results and sudden market regime shifts. While recent agentic frameworks improve alpha mining automation, they often lack controllable multi-round search and reliable reuse of validated exper

February 6, 2026 · 3 min · thequant.space

RealFin: How Well Do LLMs Reason About Finance When Users Leave Things Unsaid?

Reliable financial reasoning requires knowing not only how to answer, but also when an answer cannot be justified. In real financial practice, problems often rely on implicit assumptions that are taken for granted rather than stated explicitly, causing problems to appear solvable while lacking enoug

February 6, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space

Single- and Multi-Level Fourier-RQMC Methods for Multivariate Shortfall Risk

Multivariate shortfall risk measures provide a principled framework for quantifying systemic risk and determining capital allocations prior to aggregation in interconnected financial systems. Despite their well established theoretical properties, the numerical estimation of multivariate shortfall ri

February 6, 2026 · 2 min · thequant.space