Equilibrium investment under dynamic preference uncertainty

We study a continuous-time portfolio choice problem for an investor whose state-dependent preferences are determined by an exogenous factor that evolves as an Itô diffusion process. Since risk attitudes at the end of the investment horizon are uncertain, terminal wealth is evaluated under a set of u

December 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Implicit Numerical Scheme for the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman Quasi-Variational Inequality in the Optimal Market-Making Problem with Alpha Signal

We address the problem of combined stochastic and impulse control for a market maker operating in a limit order book. The problem is formulated as a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman quasi-variational inequality (HJBQVI). We propose an implicit time-discretization scheme coupled with a policy iteration algori

December 24, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Portfolio Optimization for Index Tracking with Constraints on Downside Risk and Carbon Footprint

Historically, financial risk management has mostly addressed risk factors that arise from the financial environment. Climate risks present a novel and significant challenge for companies and financial markets. Investors aiming for avoidance of firms with high carbon footprints require suitable risk

December 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Covariance-Aware Simplex Projection for Cardinality-Constrained Portfolio Optimization

Metaheuristic algorithms for cardinality-constrained portfolio optimization require repair operators to map infeasible candidates onto the feasible region. Standard Euclidean projection treats assets as independent and can ignore the covariance structure that governs portfolio risk, potentially prod

December 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Modeling Bank Systemic Risk of Emerging Markets under Geopolitical Shocks: Empirical Evidence from BRICS Countries

The growing economic influence of the BRICS nations requires risk models that capture complex, long-term dynamics. This paper introduces the Bank Risk Interlinkage with Dynamic Graph and Event Simulations (BRIDGES) framework, which analyzes systemic risk based on the level of information complexity

December 23, 2025 · 3 min · thequant.space

Pricing of wrapped Bitcoin and Ethereum on-chain options

This paper measures price differences between Hegic option quotes on Arbitrum and a model-based benchmark built on Black–Scholes model with regime-sensitive volatility estimated via a two-regime MS-AR-(GJR)-GARCH model. Using option-level feasible GLS, we find benchmark prices exceed Hegic quotes o

December 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Quantitative Financial Modeling for Sri Lankan Markets: Approach Combining NLP, Clustering and Time-Series Forecasting

This research introduces a novel quantitative methodology tailored for quantitative finance applications, enabling banks, stockbrokers, and investors to predict economic regimes and market signals in emerging markets, specifically Sri Lankan stock indices (S&P SL20 and ASPI) by integrating Environme

December 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Switching between states and the COVID-19 turbulence

In Aarab (2020), I examine U.S. stock return predictability across economic regimes and document evidence of time-varying expected returns across market states in the long run. The analysis introduces a state-switching specification in which the market state is proxied by the slope of the yield curv

December 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

The Aligned Economic Index & The State Switching Model

A growing empirical literature suggests that equity-premium predictability is state dependent, with much of the forecasting power concentrated around recessionary periods (Henkel et al., 2011; Dangl and Halling, 2012; Devpura et al., 2018). I study U.S. stock return predictability across economic re

December 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Almost-Exact Simulation Scheme for Heston-type Models: Bermudan and American Option Pricing

Recently, an Almost-Exact Simulation (AES) scheme was introduced for the Heston stochastic volatility model and tested for European option pricing. This paper extends this scheme for pricing Bermudan and American options under both Heston and double Heston models. The AES improves Monte Carlo simula

December 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Can Large Language Models Improve Venture Capital Exit Timing After IPO?

Exit timing after an IPO is one of the most consequential decisions for venture capital (VC) investors, yet existing research focuses mainly on describing when VCs exit rather than evaluating whether those choices are economically optimal. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) have shown promise i

December 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Counterexamples for FX Options Interpolations -- Part I

This article provides a list of counterexamples, where some of the popular fx option interpolations break down. Interpolation of FX option prices (or equivalently volatilities), is key to risk-manage not only vanilla FX option books, but also more exotic derivatives which are typically valued with l

December 22, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Equilibrium Liquidity and Risk Offsetting in Decentralised Markets

We develop an economic model of decentralised exchanges (DEXs) in which risk-averse liquidity providers (LPs) manage risk in a centralised exchange (CEX) based on preferences, information, and trading costs. Rational, risk-averse LPs anticipate the frictions associated with replication and manage ri

December 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Heston vol-of-vol and the VVIX

The Heston stochastic volatility model is arguably, the most popular stochastic volatility model used to price and risk manage exotic derivatives. In spite of this, it is not necessarily easy to calibrate to the market and obtain stable exotic option prices with this model. This paper focuses on the

December 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

How to choose my stochastic volatility parameters? A review

Based on the existing literature, this article presents the different ways of choosing the parameters of stochastic volatility models in general, in the context of pricing financial derivative contracts. This includes the use of stochastic volatility inside stochastic local volatility models.

December 22, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Institutional Backing and Crypto Volatility: A Hybrid Framework for DeFi Stabilization

Decentralized finance (DeFi) lacks centralized oversight, often resulting in heightened volatility. In contrast, centralized finance (CeFi) offers a more stable environment with institutional safeguards. Institutional backing can play a stabilizing role in a hybrid structure (HyFi), enhancing transp

December 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Asymptotic Analysis of Optimal Diversification in Catastrophe Risk Pooling

Catastrophe risk has long been recognized to pose a serious threat to the insurance sector. Catastrophe risk pooling offers an effective way to diversify losses arising from catastrophic events. In this paper, we investigate a structure of catastrophe risk pool and optimize it so that participants c

December 21, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Needles in a haystack: using forensic network science to uncover insider trading

Although the automation and digitisation of anti-financial crime investigation has made significant progress in recent years, detecting insider trading remains a unique challenge, partly due to the limited availability of labelled data. To address this challenge, we propose using a data-driven netwo

December 21, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal Signal Extraction from Order Flow: A Matched Filter Perspective on Normalization and Market Microstructure

We demonstrate that the choice of normalization for order flow intensity is fundamental to signal extraction in finance, not merely a technical detail. Through theoretical modeling, Monte Carlo simulation, and empirical validation using Korean market data, we prove that market capitalization normali

December 21, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Full grid solution for multi-asset options pricing with tensor networks

Pricing multi-asset options via the Black-Scholes PDE is limited by the curse of dimensionality: classical full-grid solvers scale exponentially in the number of underlyings and are effectively restricted to three assets. Practitioners typically rely on Monte Carlo methods for computing complex inst

December 20, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space