Ultimate Forward Rate Prediction and its Application to Bond Yield Forecasting: A Machine Learning Perspective

This study focuses on forecasting the ultimate forward rate (UFR) and developing a UFRbased bond yield prediction model using data from Chinese treasury bonds and macroeconomic variables spanning from December 2009 to December 2024. The de Kort-Vellekooptype methodology is applied to estimate the UF

December 20, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Implementation of Augmented Reality as an Educational Tool for Practice in Early Childhood

Learning Wudhu for young children requires engaging and interactive media to foster a deep understanding of the worship procedures. This study aims to develop a Wudhu learning application based on Augmented Reality (AR) as an interactive and fun educational medium. The development method used includ

December 19, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Modelling financial time series with quantum field theory

We use a $φ^{“4”}$ quantum field theory with inhomogeneous couplings and explicit symmetry-breaking to model an ensemble of financial time series from the S$&$P 500 index. The continuum nature of the $φ^4$ theory avoids the inaccuracies that occur in Ising-based models which require a discretization

December 19, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Near-Maturity Asymptotics of Critical Prices of American Put Options under Exponential Lévy Models

In the present paper, we study the near-maturity ($t\rightarrow T^{-}$) convergence rate of the optimal early-exercise price $b(t)$ of an American put under an exponential Lévy model with a {\it nonzero} Brownian component. Two important settings, not previous covered in the literature, are consider

December 19, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Relative arbitrage problem under eigenvalue lower bounds

We give a new formulation of the relative arbitrage problem from stochastic portfolio theory that asks for a time horizon beyond which arbitrage relative to the market exists in all sufficiently volatile'' markets. In our formulation, sufficiently volatile’’ is interpreted as a lower bound on an

December 19, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Systemic Risk Radar: A Multi-Layer Graph Framework for Early Market Crash Warning

Financial crises emerge when structural vulnerabilities accumulate across sectors, markets, and investor behavior. Predicting these systemic transitions is challenging because they arise from evolving interactions between market participants, not isolated price movements alone. We present Systemic R

December 19, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Visualization of The Content of Surah al Fiil using Marker-Based Augmented Reality

This study presents the development of a marker-based augmented reality (AR) application designed to visualize the content of Surah al-Fil as an interactive and context-rich medium for Islamic education. Using a research and development approach, the system was developed through structured stages in

December 19, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

An Efficient Machine Learning Framework for Option Pricing via Fourier Transform

The increasing need for rapid recalibration of option pricing models in dynamic markets places stringent computational demands on data generation and valuation algorithms. In this work, we propose a hybrid algorithmic framework that integrates the smooth offset algorithm (SOA) with supervised machin

December 18, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Asymptotic and finite-sample distributions of one- and two-sample empirical relative entropy, with application to change-point detection

Relative entropy, as a divergence metric between two distributions, can be used for offline change-point detection and extends classical methods that mainly rely on moment-based discrepancies. To build a statistical test suitable for this context, we study the distribution of empirical relative entr

December 18, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Design of a Decentralized Fixed-Income Lending Automated Market Maker Protocol Supporting Arbitrary Maturities

In decentralized finance (DeFi), designing fixed-income lending automated market makers (AMMs) is extremely challenging due to time-related complexities. Moreover, existing protocols only support single-maturity lending. Building upon the BondMM protocol, this paper argues that its mathematical inva

December 18, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Global universal approximation with Brownian signatures

We establish $L^p$-type universal approximation theorems for general and non-anticipative functionals on suitable rough path spaces, showing that linear functionals acting on signatures of time-extended rough paths are dense with respect to an $L^p$-distance. To that end, we derive global universal

December 18, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Adaptive Partitioning and Learning for Stochastic Control of Diffusion Processes

We study reinforcement learning for controlled diffusion processes with unbounded continuous state spaces, bounded continuous actions, and polynomially growing rewards: settings that arise naturally in finance, economics, and operations research. To overcome the challenges of continuous and high-dim

December 17, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Adaptive Weighted Genetic Algorithm-Optimized SVR for Robust Long-Term Forecasting of Global Stock Indices for investment decisions

Long-term price forecasting remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent uncertainty over the long term, despite some success in short-term predictions. Nonetheless, accurate long-term forecasts are essential for high-net-worth individuals, institutional investors, and traders. The proposed im

December 17, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Arbitrage-Free Pricing with Diffusion-Dependent Jumps

Standard jump-diffusion models assume independence between jumps and diffusion components. We develop a multi-type jump-diffusion model where jump occurrence and magnitude depend on contemporaneous diffusion movements. Unlike previous one-sided models that create arbitrage opportunities, our framewo

December 17, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multi-Objective Bayesian Optimization of Deep Reinforcement Learning for Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Financial Portfolio Management

DRL agents circumvent the issue of classic models in the sense that they do not make assumptions like the financial returns being normally distributed and are able to deal with any information like the ESG score if they are configured to gain a reward that makes an objective better. However, the per

December 17, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

SigMA: Path Signatures and Multi-head Attention for Learning Parameters in fBm-driven SDEs

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by fractional Brownian motion (fBm) are increasingly used to model systems with rough dynamics and long-range dependence, such as those arising in quantitative finance and reliability engineering. However, these processes are non-Markovian and lack a s

December 17, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Deep Learning and Elicitability for McKean-Vlasov FBSDEs With Common Noise

We present a novel numerical method for solving McKean-Vlasov forward-backward stochastic differential equations (MV-FBSDEs) with common noise, combining Picard iterations, elicitability and deep learning. The key innovation involves elicitability to derive a path-wise loss function, enabling effici

December 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Fixed-Income Pricing and the Replication of Liabilities

This paper develops a model-free framework for static fixed-income pricing and the replication of liability cash flows. We show that the absence of static arbitrage across a universe of fixed-income instruments is equivalent to the existence of a strictly positive discount curve that reproduces all

December 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Long-run survival in limited stock market participation models with power utilities

We extend the limited participation model in Basak and Cuoco (1998) to allow for traders with different time-preference coefficients but identical constant relative risk-aversion coefficients. Our main result gives parameter restrictions which ensure the existence of a Radner equilibrium. As an appl

December 16, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Sources and Nonlinearity of High Volume Return Premium: An Empirical Study on the Differential Effects of Investor Identity versus Trading Intensity (2020-2024)

Chae and Kang (2019, \textit{“Pacific-Basin Finance Journal”}) documented a puzzling Low Volume Return Premium (LVRP) in Korea – contradicting global High Volume Return Premium (HVRP) evidence. We resolve this puzzle. Using Korean market data (2020-2024), we demonstrate that HVRP exists in Korea but

December 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space