Informative Risk Measures in the Banking Industry: A Proposal based on the Magnitude-Propensity Approach

Despite decades of research in risk management, most of the literature has focused on scalar risk measures (like e.g. Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall). While such scalar measures provide compact and tractable summaries, they provide a poor informative value as they miss the intrinsic multivaria

November 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Integrating LSTM Networks with Neural Levy Processes for Financial Forecasting

This paper investigates an optimal integration of deep learning with financial models for robust asset price forecasting. Specifically, we developed a hybrid framework combining a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network with the Merton-Lévy jump-diffusion model. To optimise this framework, we employed

November 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

LLM-Generated Counterfactual Stress Scenarios for Portfolio Risk Simulation via Hybrid Prompt-RAG Pipeline

We develop a transparent and fully auditable LLM-based pipeline for macro-financial stress testing, combining structured prompting with optional retrieval of country fundamentals and news. The system generates machine-readable macroeconomic scenarios for the G7, which cover GDP growth, inflation, an

November 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Portfolio Optimization via Transfer Learning

Recognizing that asset markets generally exhibit shared informational characteristics, we develop a portfolio strategy based on transfer learning that leverages cross-market information to enhance the investment performance in the market of interest by forward validation. Our strategy asymptotically

November 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Quantum Network of Assets (QNA): A Density-Operator Framework for Market Dependence and Structural Risk Diagnostics

Classical correlation and rolling PCA summarize market dependence through covariance spectra, but they do not provide a unified operator representation for entropy, purity-based mixing, and standardized structural deviations built from rolling multi-feature trajectories. We propose the Quantum Netwo

November 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Standardized Threat Taxonomy for AI Security, Governance, and Regulatory Compliance

The accelerating deployment of artificial intelligence systems across regulated sectors has exposed critical fragmentation in risk assessment methodologies. A significant “language barrier” currently separates technical security teams, who focus on algorithmic vulnerabilities (e.g., MITRE ATLAS), fr

November 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

The Risk-Adjusted Intelligence Dividend: A Quantitative Framework for Measuring AI Return on Investment Integrating ISO 42001 and Regulatory Exposure

Organizations investing in artificial intelligence face a fundamental challenge: traditional return on investment calculations fail to capture the dual nature of AI implementations, which simultaneously reduce certain operational risks while introducing novel exposures related to algorithmic malfunc

November 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Constrained deep learning for pricing and hedging european options in incomplete markets

In incomplete financial markets, pricing and hedging European options lack a unique no-arbitrage solution due to unhedgeable risks. This paper introduces a constrained deep learning approach to determine option prices and hedging strategies that minimize the Profit and Loss (P&L) distribution around

November 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Efficient Importance Sampling under Heston Model: Short Maturity and Deep Out-of-the-Money Options

This paper investigates asymptotically optimal importance sampling (IS) schemes for pricing European call options under the Heston stochastic volatility model. We focus on two distinct rare-event regimes where standard Monte Carlo methods suffer from significant variance deterioration: the limit as

November 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Limit Order Book Dynamics in Matching Markets: Microstructure, Spread, and Execution Slippage

Conventional models of matching markets assume that monetary transfers can clear markets by compensating for utility differentials. However, empirical patterns show that such transfers often fail to close structural preference gaps. This paper introduces a market microstructure framework that models

November 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Carbon-Penalised Portfolio Insurance Strategies in a Stochastic Factor Model with Partial Information

Given the increasing importance of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors, particularly carbon emissions, we investigate optimal proportional portfolio insurance (PPI) strategies accounting for carbon footprint reduction. PPI strategies enable investors to mitigate downside risk while re

November 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Diagram-to-Circuit QNLP for Financial Sentiment Analysis

We study a \emph{QDisCoCirc}-inspired, chunked diagram-to-circuit quantum natural language processing (QNLP) model for three-class sentiment classification of financial texts. In our classical simulations, we keep the Hilbert-space dimension manageable by decomposing each sentence into short contigu

November 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal dividend and capital injection under self-exciting claims

In this paper, we study an optimal dividend and capital-injection problem in a Cramér–Lundberg model where claim arrivals follow a Hawkes process, capturing clustering effects often observed in insurance portfolios. We establish key analytical properties of the value function and characterise the o

November 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A calibrated model of debt recycling with interest costs and tax shields: viability under different fiscal regimes and jurisdictions

Debt recycling is a leveraged equity management strategy in which homeowners use accumulated home equity to finance investments, applying the resulting returns to accelerate mortgage repayment. We propose a novel framework to model equity and mortgage dynamics in presence of mortgage interest rates,

November 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Re(Visiting) Time Series Foundation Models in Finance

Financial time series forecasting is central to trading, portfolio optimization, and risk management, yet it remains challenging due to noisy, non-stationary, and heterogeneous data. Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs), inspired by large language models, offer a new paradigm for

November 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A multi-view contrastive learning framework for spatial embeddings in risk modelling

Incorporating spatial information, particularly those influenced by climate, weather, and demographic factors, is crucial for improving underwriting precision and enhancing risk management in insurance. However, spatial data are often unstructured, high-dimensional, and difficult to integrate into p

November 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Arbitrage-Free Bond and Yield Curve Forecasting with Neural Filters under HJM Constraints

We develop an arbitrage-free deep learning framework for yield curve and bond price forecasting based on the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) term-structure model and a dynamic Nelson-Siegel parameterization of forward rates. Our approach embeds a no-arbitrage drift restriction into a neural state-space ar

November 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Diffusive Limit of Hawkes Driven Order Book Dynamics With Liquidity Migration

This paper develops a theoretical mesoscopic model of the limit order book driven by multivariate Hawkes processes, designed to capture temporal self-excitation and the spatial propagation of order flow across price levels. In contrast to classical zero-intelligence or Poisson based queueing models,

November 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Hybrid LSTM and PPO Networks for Dynamic Portfolio Optimization

This paper introduces a hybrid framework for portfolio optimization that fuses Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) forecasting with a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) reinforcement learning strategy. The proposed system leverages the predictive power of deep recurrent networks to capture temporal depend

November 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Partial multivariate transformer as a tool for cryptocurrencies time series prediction

Forecasting cryptocurrency prices is hindered by extreme volatility and a methodological dilemma between information-scarce univariate models and noise-prone full-multivariate models. This paper investigates a partial-multivariate approach to balance this trade-off, hypothesizing that a strategic su

November 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space