Robust Hedging of path-dependent options using a min-max algorithm

We consider an investor who wants to hedge a path-dependent option with maturity $T$ using a static hedging portfolio using cash, the underlying, and vanilla put/call options on the same underlying with maturity $ t_1$, where $0 < t_1 < T$. We propose a model-free approach to construct such a portfo

November 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A parallel monetary system based on the redeemable self-decaying money -- The ultimate hedge and safe haven of private wealth in the rising wave of over issuance of fiat and token money/stablecoin

A currency with stable purchasing power can always provide a psychological haven for people around the world. However, since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, issuing more cheap currencies has become a common trend in the international community, and the legalization and over issuance of sta

November 1, 2025 · 3 min · thequant.space

Lambda Value-at-Risk under ambiguity and risk sharing

In this paper, we investigate the Lambda Value-at-Risk ($Λ$VaR) under ambiguity, where the ambiguity is represented by a family of probability measures. We establish that for increasing Lambda functions, the robust (i.e., worst-case) $Λ$VaR under such an ambiguity set is equivalent to $Λ$VaR compute

November 1, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Technical Analysis Meets Machine Learning: Bitcoin Evidence

In this note, we compare Bitcoin trading performance using two machine learning models-Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-and two technical analysis-based strategies: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossover and a combination of Moving Average Convergence/

November 1, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Black-Scholes Model, comparison between Analytical Solution and Numerical Analysis

The main purpose of this article is to give a general overview and understanding of the first widely used option-pricing model, the Black-Scholes model. The history and context are presented, with the usefulness and implications in the economics world. A brief review of fundamental calculus concepts

October 31, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Deep reinforcement learning for optimal trading with partial information

Reinforcement Learning (RL) applied to financial problems has been the subject of a lively area of research. The use of RL for optimal trading strategies that exploit latent information in the market is, to the best of our knowledge, not widely tackled. In this paper we study an optimal trading prob

October 31, 2025 · 3 min · thequant.space

Exact Terminal Condition Neural Network for American Option Pricing Based on the Black-Scholes-Merton Equations

This paper proposes the Exact Terminal Condition Neural Network (ETCNN), a deep learning framework for accurately pricing American options by solving the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) equations. The ETCNN incorporates carefully designed functions that ensure the numerical solution not only exactly sati

October 31, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

On effects of present-bias on carbon emission patterns towards a net zero target

This paper explores the optimal policy for using an allocated carbon emission budget over time with the objective to maximize profit, by explicitly taking into account present-biased preferences of decision-makers, accounting for time-inconsistent preferences. The setup can be adapted to be applicab

October 31, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Risk-aware stochastic scheduling of multi-market energy storage systems

Energy storage promotes the integration of renewables by operating with charge and discharge policies that balance an intermittent power supply. A key challenge in this emerging sector is how to optimize the operation of storage assets given future price uncertainties and the need to recover the cos

October 31, 2025 · 3 min · thequant.space

When AI Trading Agents Compete: Adverse Selection of Meta-Orders by Reinforcement Learning-Based Market Making

We investigate the mechanisms by which medium-frequency trading agents are adversely selected by opportunistic high-frequency traders. We use reinforcement learning (RL) within a Hawkes Limit Order Book (LOB) model in order to replicate the behaviours of high-frequency market makers. In contrast to

October 31, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

An Impulse Control Approach to Market Making in a Hawkes LOB Market

We study the optimal Market Making problem in a Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulated using a high-fidelity, mutually exciting Hawkes process. Departing from traditional Brownian-driven mid-price models, our setup captures key microstructural properties such as queue dynamics, inter-arrival cluste

October 30, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Budget Forecasting and Integrated Strategic Planning for Leaders

This study explored how advanced budgeting techniques and economic indicators influence funding levels and strategic alignment in California Community Colleges (CCCs). Despite widespread implementation of budgeting reforms, many CCCs continue to face challenges aligning financial planning with insti

October 30, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

ChatGPT in Systematic Investing -- Enhancing Risk-Adjusted Returns with LLMs

This paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) can improve cross-sectional momentum strategies by extracting predictive signals from firm-specific news. We combine daily U.S. equity returns for S&P 500 constituents with high-frequency news data and use prompt-engineered queries to Chat

October 30, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Estimating the Hurst parameter from the zero vanna implied volatility and its dual

The covariance between the return of an asset and its realized volatility can be approximated as the difference between two specific implied volatilities. In this paper it is proved that in the small time-to-maturity limit the approximation error tends to zero. In addition a direct relation between

October 30, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Hybrid LLM and Higher-Order Quantum Approximate Optimization for CSA Collateral Management

We address finance-native collateral optimization under ISDA Credit Support Annexes (CSAs), where integer lots, Schedule A haircuts, RA/MTA gating, and issuer/currency/class caps create rugged, legally bounded search spaces. We introduce a certifiable hybrid pipeline purpose-built for this domain: (

October 30, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Learning to Manage Investment Portfolios beyond Simple Utility Functions

While investment funds publicly disclose their objectives in broad terms, their managers optimize for complex combinations of competing goals that go beyond simple risk-return trade-offs. Traditional approaches attempt to model this through multi-objective utility functions, but face fundamental cha

October 30, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal Cash Transfers and Microinsurance to Reduce Social Protection Costs

Design and implementation of appropriate social protection strategies is one of the main targets of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 1: No Poverty. Cash transfer (CT) programmes are considered one of the main social protection strategies and an instrument for achieving SDG 1. T

October 30, 2025 · 3 min · thequant.space

Probabilistic Rule Models as Diagnostic Layers: Interpreting Structural Concept Drift in Post-Crisis Finance

Machine learning models used for high-stakes predictions in domains like credit risk face critical degradation due to concept drift, requiring robust and transparent adaptation mechanisms. We propose an architecture, where a dedicated correction layer is employed to efficiently capture systematic sh

October 30, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

RL-Exec: Impact-Aware Reinforcement Learning for Opportunistic Optimal Liquidation, Outperforms TWAP and a Book-Liquidity VWAP on BTC-USD Replays

We study opportunistic optimal liquidation over fixed deadlines on BTC-USD limit-order books (LOB). We present RL-Exec, a PPO agent trained on historical replays augmented with endogenous transient impact (resilience), partial fills, maker/taker fees, and latency. The policy observes depth-20 LOB fe

October 30, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A mathematical study of the excess growth rate

We study the excess growth rate – a fundamental logarithmic functional arising in portfolio theory – from the perspective of information theory. We show that the excess growth rate can be connected to the Rényi and cross entropies, the Helmholtz free energy, L. Campbell’s measure of average code len

October 29, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space