Attention Factors for Statistical Arbitrage

Statistical arbitrage exploits temporal price differences between similar assets. We develop a framework to jointly identify similar assets through factors, identify mispricing and form a trading policy that maximizes risk-adjusted performance after trading costs. Our Attention Factors are condition

October 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Berms without Calibration

A new semi-analytical pricing model for Bermudan swaptions based on swap rates distributions and correlations between them. The model does not require product specific calibration.

October 13, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Evaluating Investment Performance: The p-index and Empirical Efficient Frontier

The empirical results have shown that firstly, with one-week holding period and reinvesting, for SSE Composite Index stocks, the highest p-ratio investment strategy produces the largest annualized rate of return; and for NYSE Composite Index stocks, all the three strategies with both one-week and on

October 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Identifying and Quantifying Financial Bubbles with the Hyped Log-Periodic Power Law Model

We propose a novel model, the Hyped Log-Periodic Power Law Model (HLPPL), to the problem of quantifying and detecting financial bubbles, an ever-fascinating one for academics and practitioners alike. Bubble labels are generated using a Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) model, sentiment scores, and a hyp

October 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Mean-Field Price Formation on Trees with Multi-Population and Non-Rational Agents

This work solves the equilibrium price formation problem for the risky stock by combining mean-field game theory with the binomial tree framework, adapting the classic approach of Cox, Ross & Rubinstein. For agents with exponential and recursive utilities of exponential-type, we prove the existence

October 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

On Bellman equation in the limit order optimization problem for high-frequency trading

An approximation method for construction of optimal strategies in the bid & ask limit order book in the high-frequency trading (HFT) is studied. The basis is the article by M. Avellaneda & S. Stoikov 2008, in which certain seemingly serious gaps have been found; in the present paper they are careful

October 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Schrödinger bridge for generative AI: Soft-constrained formulation and convergence analysis

Generative AI can be framed as the problem of learning a model that maps simple reference measures into complex data distributions, and it has recently found a strong connection to the classical theory of the Schrödinger bridge problems (SBPs) due partly to their common nature of interpolating betwe

October 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Risk Mitigation Model of Monetary Ecosystem with Stablecoins

Stablecoins have emerged as a significant component of global financial infrastructure, with aggregate market capitalization surpassing USD250 billion in 2025. Their increasing integration into payment and settlement systems has simultaneously introduced novel channels of systemic exposure, particul

October 12, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Integrating Large Language Models and Reinforcement Learning for Sentiment-Driven Quantitative Trading

This research develops a sentiment-driven quantitative trading system that leverages a large language model, FinGPT, for sentiment analysis, and explores a novel method for signal integration using a reinforcement learning algorithm, Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3). We compare

October 12, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multi-Agent Regime-Conditioned Diffusion (MARCD) for CVaR-Constrained Portfolio Decisions

We examine whether regime-conditioned generative scenarios combined with a convex CVaR allocator improve portfolio decisions under regime shifts. We present MARCD, a generative-to-decision framework with: (i) a Gaussian HMM to infer latent regimes; (ii) a diffusion generator that produces regime-con

October 12, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Rough Path Signatures: Learning Neural RDEs for Portfolio Optimization

We tackle high-dimensional, path-dependent valuation and control and introduce a deep BSDE/2BSDE solver that couples truncated log-signatures with a neural rough differential equation (RDE) backbone. The architecture aligns stochastic analysis with sequence-to-path learning: a CVaR-tilted terminal o

October 12, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

ESG Signaling on Wall Street in the AI Era

I identify a new signaling channel in ESG research by empirically examining whether environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing remains valuable as large institutional investors increasingly shift toward artificial intelligence (AI). Using winsorized ESG scores of S&P 500 firms from Yahoo

October 11, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Learning the Exact SABR Model

The SABR model is a cornerstone of interest rate volatility modeling, but its practical application relies heavily on the analytical approximation by Hagan et al., whose accuracy deteriorates for high volatility, long maturities, and out-of-the-money options, admitting arbitrage. While machine learn

October 11, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal annuitization with labor income under age-dependent force of mortality

We consider the problem of optimal annuitization with labour income, where an agent aims to maximize utility from consumption and labour income under age-dependent force of mortality. Using a dynamic programming approach, we derive closed-form solutions for the value function and the optimal consump

October 11, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Robust Exploratory Stopping under Ambiguity in Reinforcement Learning

We propose and analyze a continuous-time robust reinforcement learning framework for optimal stopping under ambiguity. In this framework, an agent chooses a robust exploratory stopping time motivated by two objectives: robust decision-making under ambiguity and learning about the unknown environment

October 11, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Toxicity Bounds for Dynamic Liquidation Incentives

We derive a slippage-aware toxicity condition for on-chain liquidations executed via a constant-product automated market maker (CP-AMM). For a fixed (constant) liquidation incentive $i$, the familiar toxicity frontier $ν< 1/(1+i)$ tightens to $ν< 1/((1+i)λ)$ for a liquidity penalty factor $λ$ that w

October 11, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Multimodal Approach to SME Credit Scoring Integrating Transaction and Ownership Networks

Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) are known to play a vital role in economic growth, employment, and innovation. However, they tend to face significant challenges in accessing credit due to limited financial histories, collateral constraints, and exposure to macroeconomic shocks. These chall

October 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Application of Deep Reinforcement Learning to At-the-Money S&P 500 Options Hedging

This paper explores the application of deep Q-learning to hedging at-the-money options on the S&P500 index. We develop an agent based on the Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) algorithm, trained to simulate hedging decisions without making explicit model assumptions on price dynam

October 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

ATLAS: Adaptive Trading with LLM AgentS Through Dynamic Prompt Optimization and Multi-Agent Coordination

Large language models show promise for financial decision-making, yet deploying them as autonomous trading agents raises fundamental challenges: how to adapt instructions when rewards arrive late and obscured by market noise, how to synthesize heterogeneous information streams into coherent decision

October 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

The Pitfalls of Continuous Heavy-Tailed Distributions in High-Frequency Data Analysis

We address the challenges of modeling high-frequency integer price changes in financial markets using continuous distributions, particularly the Student’s t-distribution. We demonstrate that traditional GARCH models, which rely on continuous distributions, are ill-suited for high-frequency data due

October 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space