Modeling ROI in Chronic Disease Management, A Simulation-Based Framework Integrating Patient Adherence and Policy Timing

Background: Chronic diseases impose a sustained burden on healthcare systems through progressive deterioration and long-term costs. Although adherence-enhancing interventions are widely promoted, their return on investment (ROI) remains uncertain, particularly under heterogeneous patient behavior an

October 7, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Smart Contract Adoption under Discrete Overdispersed Demand: A Negative Binomial Optimization Perspective

Effective supply chain management under high-variance demand requires models that jointly address demand uncertainty and digital contracting adoption. Existing research often simplifies demand variability or treats adoption as an exogenous decision, limiting relevance in e-commerce and humanitarian

October 7, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

The New Quant: A Survey of Large Language Models in Financial Prediction and Trading

Large language models are reshaping quantitative investing by turning unstructured financial information into evidence-grounded signals and executable decisions. This survey synthesizes research with a focus on equity return prediction and trading, consolidating insights from domain surveys and more

October 7, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Uncovering Representation Bias for Investment Decisions in Open-Source Large Language Models

Large Language Models are increasingly adopted in financial applications to support investment workflows. However, prior studies have seldom examined how these models reflect biases related to firm size, sector, or financial characteristics, which can significantly impact decision-making. This paper

October 7, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Concentrated N-dimensional AMM with Polar Coordinates in Rust

We expand on the recent development of n-dimensional automated market makers for stablecoins by showing a way to build concentrated liquidity positions with ticks in polar coordinates in Rust, including the featured ability to skew said concentrated liquidity. We highlight the risk of stacking too m

October 6, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Model Monitoring: A General Framework with an Application to Non-life Insurance Pricing

Maintaining the predictive performance of pricing models is challenging when insurance portfolios and data-generating mechanisms evolve over time. Focusing on non-life insurance, we adopt the concept-drift terminology from machine learning and distinguish virtual drift from real concept drift in an

October 6, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Probability equivalent level for CoVaR and VaR in bivariate Student-\textit{t} copulas with application to foreign exchange risk monitoring

We extend the “probability-equivalent level of VaR and CoVaR” (PELCoV) methodology to accommodate bivariate risks modeled by a Student-t copula, relaxing the strong dependence assumptions of earlier approaches and enhancing the framework’s ability to capture tail dependence and asymmetric co-movemen

October 6, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Risk-Sensitive Option Market Making with Arbitrage-Free eSSVI Surfaces: A Constrained RL and Stochastic Control Bridge

We formulate option market making as a constrained, risk-sensitive control problem that unifies execution, hedging, and arbitrage-free implied-volatility surfaces inside a single learning loop. A fully differentiable eSSVI layer enforces static no-arbitrage conditions (butterfly and calendar) while

October 6, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Robust Pricing and Hedging of American Options in Continuous Time

We consider the robust pricing and hedging of American options in a continuous time setting. We assume asset prices are continuous semimartingales, but we allow for general model uncertainty specification via adapted closed convex constraints on the volatility. We prove the robust pricing-hedging du

October 6, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Signed network models for portfolio optimization

In this work, we consider weighted signed network representations of financial markets derived from raw or denoised correlation matrices, and examine how negative edges can be exploited to reduce portfolio risk. We then propose a discrete optimization scheme that reduces the asset selection problem

October 6, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Tail-Safe Hedging: Explainable Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning with a White-Box CBF--QP Safety Layer in Arbitrage-Free Markets

We introduce Tail-Safe, a deployability-oriented framework for derivatives hedging that unifies distributional, risk-sensitive reinforcement learning with a white-box control-barrier-function (CBF) quadratic-program (QP) safety layer tailored to financial constraints. The learning component combines

October 6, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Convergence in probability of numerical solutions of a highly non-linear delayed stochastic interest rate model

We examine a delayed stochastic interest rate model with super-linearly growing coefficients and develop several new mathematical tools to establish the properties of its true and truncated EM solutions. Moreover, we show that the true solution converges to the truncated EM solutions in probability

October 5, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

From News to Returns: A Granger-Causal Hypergraph Transformer on the Sphere

We propose the Causal Sphere Hypergraph Transformer (CSHT), a novel architecture for interpretable financial time-series forecasting that unifies \emph{“Granger-causal hypergraph structure”}, \emph{“Riemannian geometry”}, and \emph{“causally masked Transformer attention”}. CSHT models the directiona

October 5, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Panel regression for the GDP of the Central and Eastern European countries using time-varying coefficients

The integration of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries into the European Economic Area serves as a valuable experiment for the regional economic development theory. The long-lasting convergence of these economies with more advanced Western Europe exhibits a few standard features and varying

October 5, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Short-rate models with stochastic discontinuities: a PDE approach

With the reform of interest rate benchmarks, interbank offered rates (IBORs) like LIBOR have been replaced by risk-free rates (RFRs), such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the U.S. and the Euro Short-Term Rate (\euro STR) in Europe. These rates exhibit characteristics like jumps and

October 5, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Comparing LLMs for Sentiment Analysis in Financial Market News

This article presents a comparative study of large language models (LLMs) in the task of sentiment analysis of financial market news. This work aims to analyze the performance difference of these models in this important natural language processing task within the context of finance. LLM models are

October 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Do Mutual Funds Make Active and Skilled Liquidity Choices in Portfolio Management? Evidence from India

This study examines active liquidity management by Indian open-ended equity mutual funds. We find that fund managers respond to inflows by increasing cash holdings, which are later used to purchase less-liquid stocks at favourable valuations. Funds with less liquid portfolios tend to maintain larger

October 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Downside Risk-Aware Equilibria for Strategic Decision-Making

Game theory has traditionally had a relatively limited view of risk based on how a player’s expected reward is impacted by the uncertainty of the actions of other players. Recently, a new game-theoretic approach provides a more holistic view of risk also considering the reward-variance. However, the

October 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

FinReflectKG -- MultiHop: Financial QA Benchmark for Reasoning with Knowledge Graph Evidence

Multi-hop reasoning over financial disclosures is often a retrieval problem before it becomes a reasoning or generation problem: relevant facts are dispersed across sections, filings, companies, and years, and LLMs often expend excessive tokens navigating noisy context. Without precise Knowledge Gra

October 3, 2025 · 3 min · thequant.space

FR-LUX: Friction-Aware, Regime-Conditioned Policy Optimization for Implementable Portfolio Management

Transaction costs and regime shifts are major reasons why paper portfolios fail in live trading. We introduce FR-LUX (Friction-aware, Regime-conditioned Learning under eXecution costs), a reinforcement learning framework that learns after-cost trading policies and remains robust across volatility-li

October 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space