Impact IRR: Leveraging Modern Portfolio Theory to Define Impact Investments

The impact investment market has an estimated value of almost $1.6 trillion. Significant progress has been made in determining the financial returns of impact investing. Investors are still, however, in the early stages of determining impact return. In this study, the author proposes the use of impa

September 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal Consumption-Investment with Epstein-Zin Utility under Leverage Constraint

We study optimal portfolio choice under Epstein-Zin recursive utility in the presence of general leverage constraints. We first establish that the optimal value function is the unique viscosity solution to the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, by developing a new dynamic programming

September 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Portfolio Analysis Based on Markowitz Stochastic Dominance Criteria: A Behavioral Perspective

This paper develops stochastic optimization problems for describing and analyzing behavioral investors with Markowitz Stochastic Dominance (MSD) preferences. Specifically, we establish dominance conditions in a discrete state-space to capture all reverse S-shaped MSD preferences as well as all subje

September 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Selection Confidence Sets for Equally Weighted Portfolios

Given a universe of N assets, investors often form equally weighted portfolios (EWPs) by selecting subsets of assets. EWPs are simple, robust, and competitive out-of-sample, yet the uncertainty about which subset truly performs best is largely ignored. Traditional approaches typically rely on a sing

September 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

The Sleeping Beauty Problem: Sleeping Kelly is a Thirder

The Sleeping Beauty problem is a problem of imperfect recall that has received considerable attention. One approach to solving the Sleeping Beauty problem is to allow Sleeping Beauty to make decisions based on her beliefs, and then characterize what it takes for her decisions to be “rational”. In pa

September 26, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Kolmogorov equations for stochastic Volterra processes with singular kernels

We associate backward and forward Kolmogorov equations to a class of fully nonlinear Stochastic Volterra Equations (SVEs) with convolution kernels $K$ that are singular at the origin. Working on a carefully chosen Hilbert space $\mathcal{H}_1$, we rigorously establish a link between solutions of SVE

September 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Maximum principle for robust utility optimization via Tsallis relative entropy

This paper investigates an optimal consumption-investment problem featuring recursive utility via Tsallis relative entropy. We establish a fundamental connection between this optimization problem and a quadratic backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE), demonstrating that the value function

September 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multivariate Quadratic Hawkes Processes -- Part II: Non-Parametric Empirical Calibration

This is the second part of our work on Multivariate Quadratic Hawkes (MQHawkes) Processes, devoted to the calibration of the model defined and studied analytically in Aubrun, C., Benzaquen, M., & Bouchaud, J. P., Quantitative Finance, 23(5), 741-758 (2023). We propose a non-parametric calibration me

September 25, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Error Propagation in Dynamic Programming: From Stochastic Control to Option Pricing

This paper investigates theoretical and methodological foundations for stochastic optimal control (SOC) in discrete time. We start formulating the control problem in a general dynamic programming framework, introducing the mathematical structure needed for a detailed convergence analysis. The associ

September 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Long-Range Dependence in Financial Markets: Empirical Evidence and Generative Modeling Challenges

This study presents a comprehensive empirical investigation of the presence of long-range dependence (LRD) in the dynamics of major U.S. stock market indexes–S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq–at daily, weekly, and monthly frequencies. We employ three distinct methods: the classical rescaled range (R/S)

September 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Roughness Analysis of Realized Volatility and VIX through Randomized Kolmogorov-Smirnov Distribution

We introduce a novel distribution-based estimator for the Hurst parameter of log-volatility, leveraging the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to assess the scaling behavior of entire distributions rather than individual moments. To address the temporal dependence of financial volatility, we propose a ran

September 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Connecting Quantum Computing with Classical Stochastic Simulation

This tutorial paper introduces quantum approaches to Monte Carlo computation with applications in computational finance. We outline the basics of quantum computing using Grover’s algorithm for unstructured search to build intuition. We then move slowly to amplitude estimation problems and applicatio

September 23, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Fair Volatility: A Framework for Reconceptualizing Financial Risk

Volatility is the canonical measure of financial risk, a role largely inherited from Modern Portfolio Theory. Yet, its universality rests on restrictive efficiency assumptions that render volatility, at best, an incomplete proxy for true risk. This paper identifies three fundamental inconsistencies:

September 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Filtering amplitude dependence of correlation dynamics in complex systems: application to the cryptocurrency market

Based on the cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study presents a general methodology for analyzing evolving correlation structures in complex systems using the $q$-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρ(q,s). By extending traditional metrics, this approach captures correlations at var

September 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Modelling Cascading Physical Climate Risk in Supply Chains with Adaptive Firms: A Spatial Agent-Based Framework

We present an open-source Python framework for modelling cascading physical climate risk in a spatial supply-chain economy. The framework integrates geospatial flood hazards with an agent-based model of firms and households, enabling simulation of both direct asset losses and indirect disruptions pr

September 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multimodal Language Models with Modality-Specific Experts for Financial Forecasting from Interleaved Sequences of Text and Time Series

Text and time series data offer complementary views of financial markets: news articles provide narrative context about company events, while stock prices reflect how markets react to those events. However, despite their complementary nature, effectively integrating these interleaved modalities for

September 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Sharp Large Deviations and Gibbs Conditioning for Threshold Models in Portfolio Credit Risk

We obtain sharp large deviation estimates for exceedance probabilities in dependent triangular array threshold models with a diverging number of latent factors. The prefactors quantify how latent-factor dependence and tail geometry enter at leading order, yielding three regimes: Gaussian or exponent

September 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

An Artificial Intelligence Value at Risk Approach: Metrics and Models

Artificial intelligence risks are multidimensional in nature, as the same risk scenarios may have legal, operational, and financial risk dimensions. With the emergence of new AI regulations, the state of the art of artificial intelligence risk management seems to be highly immature due to upcoming A

September 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Enhanced fill probability estimates in institutional algorithmic bond trading using statistical learning algorithms with quantum computers

The estimation of fill probabilities for trade orders represents a key ingredient in the optimization of algorithmic trading strategies. It is bound by the complex dynamics of financial markets with inherent uncertainties, and the limitations of models aiming to learn from multivariate financial tim

September 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

FinFlowRL: An Imitation-Reinforcement Learning Framework for Adaptive Stochastic Control in Finance

Traditional stochastic control methods in finance rely on simplifying assumptions that often fail in real world markets. While these methods work well in specific, well defined scenarios, they underperform when market conditions change. We introduce FinFlowRL, a novel framework for financial stochas

September 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space