We prove a functional limit theorem for a pair of nearly unstable Hawkes processes coupled through a triangular cross-excitation mechanism, when the two kernels have distinct heavy-tail exponents. This heterogeneous regime produces two different degrees of roughness and, to the best of our knowledge
This paper introduces a new market-implied object, Time to Transition (TtT), extracted from the difference between two selected nodes of the greenium term structure. TtT is defined as the latent waiting time until this cross-maturity greenium difference vanishes, meaning that the greenium becomes eq
In this paper, we investigate a portfolio investment problem under volatility uncertainty and short-sale constraints market via sublinear expectation which is used to model volatility uncertainty. We assume the stocks admit volatility uncertainty. Thus the related portfolio has upper variance (maxim
This paper proposes an eigenvalue-based small-sample approximation of the celebrated Markov Chain Monte Carlo that delivers an invariant steady-state distribution that is consistent with traditional Monte Carlo methods. The proposed eigenvalue-based methodology reduces the number of paths required f
We introduce a transport cohomological framework for categorical filtrations. Given a contravariant filtration $F:\mathcal T^{op}\to\mathbf{Prob}$ on a small category (\mathcal T), conditional expectation induces transport operators between local probabilistic states. Using the simplicial structur
We develop a stochastic game-theoretic model for intraday dispatch of grid-scale battery energy storage systems (BESSs). We assume that each BESS operator competitively manages her state-of-charge to maximize energy arbitrage revenues, driven by the endogenized electricity price that depends on the
This paper develops a deep learning-based framework for pricing convertible bonds with path-dependent contractual features, namely downward conversion price reset and issuer call clauses under rolling-window trigger rules, which are widespread in the convertible bond market. We formulate the valuati
This paper proposes a hybrid methodology to improve the approximation of SABR (Stochastic Alpha Beta Rho) implied volatility by combining analytical structure with machine learning. The approach augments the neural-network input representation with geometric features derived from the stochastic diff
Accurate and efficient imbalance electricity price forecasting is critical for industrial energy trading systems, especially as battery assets and automated bidding pipelines increasingly participate in balancing markets. However, real-time forecasting is complicated by nonlinear market-rule-based p
Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities
This paper constructs and validates a composite day-classification system for Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 futures (MNQ) using three pre-market observable conditions: first-30-minute return magnitude, overnight gap magnitude, and abnormal opening-bar volume relative to a rolling baseline. Using 947 regul
Conventional algorithmic trading systems are grounded in deterministic heuristics or offline-trained statistical models that cannot adapt to the semantic complexity of rapidly shifting market regimes. This paper introduces AGENTICAITA, an agentic AI framework that replaces the traditional signal the
In American options, the early exercise feature allows the option to be exercised at any time prior to expiration. However, this flexibility introduces a challenge: the pricing model must value the option while simultaneously determining an unknown, time-varying exercise boundary. The Heston model i
It is well-known that, in the Bachelier model, when asset prices and volatilities are uncorrelated, the implied volatility coincides with the fair value of the volatility swap. In this paper, via classical Itô calculus and Taylor expansions, we write the price for out-of-the-money (OTM) and in-the-m
While decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket have gained significant traction, their market microstructure and high-frequency pricing efficiency remain underexplored. This paper conducts a systematic empirical analysis of algorithmic arbitrage within Polymarket’s NBA game markets. By recon
We present a new class of Bayesian dynamic models for bivariate price-realized volatility time series in financial forecasting. A novel dynamic gamma process model adopted for realized volatility is integrated with traditional Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLMs) for asset price series. This repres
ESG-aware portfolio optimization is increasingly important for sustainable capital allocation, yet most learning-based methods still operationalize ESG by appending static scores to the policy observation or reward. This creates a mismatch for sequential control: ESG scores are noisy, provider-depen
Multi-agent LLM systems fail in production at rates between 41% and 87%, mostly due to coordination defects rather than base-model capability. Existing responses split between cataloguing failure modes empirically and shipping declarative orchestration frameworks as engineering tools; neither delive
Decision-focused learning (DFL) is attractive for portfolio optimization because it trains predictors according to downstream decision quality rather than prediction accuracy alone. However, SPO(Smart, Predict then Optimize surrogate)-based DFL may produce inflated return signals and unstable portfo
Current post-trade clearing systems rely almost exclusively on cash or cash-like collateral, leaving vast reserves of short-term liquidity embedded in trade credit outside formal settlement infrastructures. A key barrier to integrating this liquidity is the near-universal dependence of clearing serv