Deep Learning for Short Term Equity Trend Forecasting: A Behavior Driven Multi Factor Approach

This study proposes a behaviorally-informed multi-factor stock selection framework that integrates short-cycle technical alpha signals with deep learning. We design a dual-task multilayer perceptron (MLP) that jointly predicts five-day future returns and directional price movements, thereby capturin

August 20, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Directional Price Forecasting in the Continuous Intraday Market under Consideration of Neighboring Products and Limit Order Books

The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy and flexible demand technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, introduces significant uncertainty in power systems, resulting in greater imbalance; defined as the deviation between scheduled and actual supply or demand. Short-term

August 20, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Fast reliable pricing and calibration of the rough Heston model

The paper is an extended and modified version of the preprint S.Boyarchenko and S.Levendorskiĭ Correct implied volatility shapes and reliable pricing in the rough Heston model". We combine a modification of the Adams method with the SINH-acceleration method S.Boyarchenko and S.Levendorskii (IJTAF 20

August 20, 2025 · 3 min · thequant.space

Generative Neural Operators of Log-Complexity Can Simultaneously Solve Infinitely Many Convex Programs

Neural operators (NOs) are a class of deep learning models designed to simultaneously solve infinitely many related problems by casting them into an infinite-dimensional space, whereon these NOs operate. A significant gap remains between theory and practice: worst-case parameter bounds from universa

August 20, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Graph Learning for Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction and Statistical Arbitrage

We propose a two-step graph learning approach for foreign exchange statistical arbitrages (FXSAs), addressing two key gaps in prior studies: the absence of graph-learning methods for foreign exchange rate prediction (FXRP) that leverage multi-currency and currency-interest rate relationships, and th

August 20, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Investment Portfolio Optimization Based on Modern Portfolio Theory and Deep Learning Models

This paper investigates an important problem of an appropriate variance-covariance matrix estimation in the Modern Portfolio Theory. We propose a novel framework for variancecovariance matrix estimation for purposes of the portfolio optimization, which is based on deep learning models. We employ the

August 20, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Pricing Options on Forwards in Function-Valued Affine Stochastic Volatility Models

We study the pricing of European-style options written on forward contracts within function-valued infinite-dimensional affine stochastic volatility models. The dynamics of the underlying forward price curves are modeled within the Heath-Jarrow-Morton-Musiela framework as solution to a stochastic pa

August 20, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Variable selection for minimum-variance portfolios

Machine learning (ML) methods have been successfully employed in identifying variables that can predict the equity premium of individual stocks. In this paper, we investigate if ML can also be helpful in selecting variables relevant for optimal portfolio choice. To address this question, we paramete

August 20, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

AlphaX: An AI-Based Value Investing Strategy for the Brazilian Stock Market

Autonomous trading strategies have been a subject of research within the field of artificial intelligence (AI) for aconsiderable period. Various AI techniques have been explored to develop autonomous agents capable of trading financial assets. These approaches encompass traditional methods such as n

August 19, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Eco-Innovation and Earnings Management: Unveiling the Moderating Effects of Financial Constraints and Opacity in FTSE All-Share Firms

Our research investigates the relationship between eco-innovation and earnings management among 567 firms listed on the FTSE All-Share Index from 2014 to 2022. By examining how sustainability-driven innovation influences financial reporting practices, we explore the strategic motivations behind inco

August 19, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Market Viability and Completeness for Multinomial Models

In this paper we aim to study viability and completeness in finite markets. In order to do that, we characterize the set of equivalent martingale measures of two-period markets as convex combinations of a finite number of martingale measures. We provide an algorithm for finding such measures, that c

August 19, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Portfolio construction using a sampling-based variational quantum scheme

The efficient and effective construction of portfolios that adhere to real-world constraints is a challenging optimization task in finance. We investigate a concrete representation of the problem with a focus on design proposals of an Exchange Traded Fund. We evaluate the sampling-based CVaR Variati

August 19, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Adaptive Strategies for Pension Fund Management

This paper proposes a simulation-based framework for assessing and improving the performance of a pension fund management scheme. This framework is modular and allows the definition of customized performance metrics that are used to assess and iteratively improve asset and liability management polic

August 18, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Dependence bounds for the difference of stop-loss payoffs on the difference of two random variables

This paper considers the difference of stop-loss payoffs where the underlying is a difference of two random variables. The goal is to study whether the comonotonic and countermonotonic modifications of those two random variables can be used to construct upper and lower bounds for the expected payoff

August 18, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Enhancing Cryptocurrency Sentiment Analysis with Multimodal Features

As cryptocurrencies gain popularity, the digital asset marketplace becomes increasingly significant. Understanding social media signals offers valuable insights into investor sentiment and market dynamics. Prior research has predominantly focused on text-based platforms such as Twitter. However, vid

August 18, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Revisiting Stochastic Collocation with Exponential Splines for an Arbitrage-Free Interpolation of Option Prices

We revisit the stochastic collocation method using the exponential of a quadratic spline. In particular, we look in details whether it is more appropriate to fix the ordinates and optimize the abscissae of an interpolating spline or to fix the abscissae and optimize the parameters of a B-spline repr

August 17, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Equilibrium Mean-Variance Dividend Rate Strategies

This paper studies an optimal dividend problem for a company that aims to maximize the mean-variance (MV) objective of the accumulated discounted dividend payments up to its ruin time. The MV objective involves an integral form over a random horizon that depends endogenously on the company’s dividen

August 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Mapping Microscopic and Systemic Risks in TradFi and DeFi: a literature review

This work explores the formation and propagation of systemic risks across traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi), offering a comparative framework that bridges these two increasingly interconnected ecosystems. We propose a conceptual model for systemic risk formation in TradFi

August 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal Portfolio Construction -- A Reinforcement Learning Embedded Bayesian Hierarchical Risk Parity (RL-BHRP) Approach

We propose a two-level, learning-based portfolio method (RL-BHRP) that spreads risk across sectors and stocks, and adjusts exposures as market conditions change. Using U.S. Equities from 2012 to mid-2025, we design the model using 2012 to 2019 data, and evaluate it out-of-sample from 2020 to 2025 ag

August 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

AlphaAgents: Large Language Model based Multi-Agents for Equity Portfolio Constructions

The field of artificial intelligence (AI) agents is evolving rapidly, driven by the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to autonomously perform and refine tasks with human-like efficiency and adaptability. In this context, multi-agent collaboration has emerged as a promising approach, enabl

August 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space