SoK: Stablecoins for Digital Transformation -- Design, Metrics, and Application with Real World Asset Tokenization as a Case Study

Stablecoins have become a foundational component of the digital asset ecosystem, with their market capitalization exceeding 230 billion USD as of May 2025. As fiat-referenced and programmable assets, stablecoins provide low-latency, globally interoperable infrastructure for payments, decentralized f

August 4, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

The Financial Connectome: A Brain-Inspired Framework for Modeling Latent Market Dynamics

We propose the Financial Connectome, a new scientific discipline that models financial markets through the lens of brain functional architecture. Inspired by the foundational work of group independent component analysis (groupICA) in neuroscience, we reimagine markets not as collections of assets, b

August 4, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

CTBench: Cryptocurrency Time Series Generation Benchmark

Synthetic time series are essential tools for data augmentation, stress testing, and algorithmic prototyping in quantitative finance. However, in cryptocurrency markets, characterized by 24/7 trading, extreme volatility, and rapid regime shifts, existing Time Series Generation (TSG) methods and benc

August 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Hedging with memory: shallow and deep learning with signatures

We investigate the use of path signatures in a machine learning context for hedging exotic derivatives under non-Markovian stochastic volatility models. In a deep learning setting, we use signatures as features in feedforward neural networks and show that they outperform LSTMs in most cases, with or

August 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

SHAP Stability in Credit Risk Management: A Case Study in Credit Card Default Model

The increasing development in the consumer credit card market brings substantial regulatory and risk management challenges. The advanced machine learning models applications bring concerns about model transparency and fairness for both financial institutions and regulatory departments. In this study

August 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Time-Varying Factor-Augmented Models for Volatility Forecasting

Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are computationally infeasible for realistic portfolios. Factor models,

August 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Tokenize Everything, But Can You Sell It? RWA Liquidity Challenges and the Road Ahead

The tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) promises to transform financial markets by enabling fractional ownership, global accessibility, and programmable settlement of traditionally illiquid assets such as real estate, private credit, and government bonds. While technical progress has been rapid

August 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

CreditARF: A Framework for Corporate Credit Rating with Annual Report and Financial Feature Integration

Corporate credit rating serves as a crucial intermediary service in the market economy, playing a key role in maintaining economic order. Existing credit rating models rely on financial metrics and deep learning. However, they often overlook insights from non-financial data, such as corporate annual

August 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

From fair price to fair volatility: Towards an Efficiency-Consistent Definition of Financial Risk

Volatility, as a primary indicator of financial risk, forms the foundation of classical frameworks such as Markowitz’s Portfolio Theory and the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). However, its conventional use rests on assumptions-most notably, the Markovian nature of price dynamics-that often fail t

August 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Kronos: A Foundation Model for the Language of Financial Markets

The success of large-scale pre-training paradigm, exemplified by Large Language Models (LLMs), has inspired the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). However, their application to financial candlestick (K-line) data remains limited, often underperforming non-pre-trained architectures

August 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Two Stochastic Control Methods for Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection of Jump Diffusions and Their Relationship

This paper is concerned with the maximum principle and dynamic programming principle for mean-variance portfolio selection of jump diffusions and their relationship. First, the optimal portfolio and efficient frontier of the problem are obtained using both methods. Furthermore, the relationship betw

August 2, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Automated Trading System for Straddle-Option Based on Deep Q-Learning

Straddle Option is a financial trading tool that explores volatility premiums in high-volatility markets without predicting price direction. Although deep reinforcement learning has emerged as a powerful approach to trading automation in financial markets, existing work mostly focused on predicting

August 1, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

ContestTrade: A Multi-Agent Trading System Based on Internal Contest Mechanism

In financial trading, large language model (LLM)-based agents demonstrate significant potential. However, the high sensitivity to market noise undermines the performance of LLM-based trading systems. To address this limitation, we propose a novel multi-agent system featuring an internal competitive

August 1, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Complexity of Financial Time Series: Multifractal and Multiscale Entropy Analyses

We employed Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) and Refined Composite Multiscale Sample Entropy (RCMSE) to investigate the complexity of Bitcoin, GBP/USD, gold, and natural gas price log-return time series. This study provides a comparative analysis of these markets and offers insig

July 31, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

ESG Risk: Lessons Learned from Utility Theory

We propose a new class of monetary risk measures for assessing financial and ESG risk. The construction is based on classical shortfall risk measures with loss function replaced by a multi-attribute utility function. We present an extensive theoretical analysis of these risk measures, showing specif

July 31, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Information geometry of Lévy processes and financial models

We develop the information geometry of Lévy processes. Deriving $α$-divergences directly in terms of the Lévy triplets of the Lévy processes, we identify Fisher information matrix and $α$-connection on the statistical manifold. In addition, we discuss statistical implications of this information geo

July 31, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Volatility Modeling with Rough Paths: A Signature-Based Alternative to Classical Expansions

We study two complementary methodologies for calibrating implied volatility surfaces: analytical approximations and data-driven models based on rough path theory. On the analytical side, we revisit a second-order asymptotic expansion for the Heston model, and we propose a new, VIX-based calibration

July 31, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Is Causality Necessary for Efficient Portfolios? A Computational Perspective on Predictive Validity and Model Misspecification

A recent line of research has argued that causal factor models are necessary for portfolio optimization, claiming that structurally misspecified models inevitably produce inverted signals and nonviable frontiers. This paper challenges that view. We show, through theoretical analysis, simulation coun

July 30, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Order-Flow Filtration and Directional Association with Short-Horizon Returns

Electronic markets generate dense order flow with many transient orders, which degrade directional signals derived from the limit order book (LOB). We study whether simple structural filters on order lifetime, modification count, and modification timing sharpen the association between order book imb

July 30, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Evaluating Transfer Learning Methods on Real-World Data Streams: A Case Study in Financial Fraud Detection

When the available data for a target domain is limited, transfer learning (TL) methods can be used to develop models on related data-rich domains, before deploying them on the target domain. However, these TL methods are typically designed with specific, static assumptions on the amount of available

July 29, 2025 · 3 min · thequant.space