Index insurance under demand and solvency constraints

Index insurance is often proposed to reduce protection gaps, especially for emerging risks. Unlike traditional insurance, it bases compensation on a measurable index, enabling faster payouts and lower claim management costs. This approach benefits both policyholders, through quick payments, and insu

July 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Information-minimizing stationary financial market dynamics

The paper derives the dynamics of a financial market from basic mathematical principles. It models the market dynamics using independent stationary scalar diffusions, assumes the existence of its growth optimal portfolio (GOP), interprets the market as a communication system, and minimizes, in an in

July 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Pathwise analysis of log-optimal portfolios

Based on the theory of càdlàg rough paths, we develop a pathwise approach to analyze stability and approximation properties of portfolios along individual price trajectories generated by standard models of financial markets. As a prototypical example from portfolio theory, we study the log-optimal p

July 24, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Analysing Models for Volatility Clustering with Subordinated Processes: VGSA and Beyond

This paper explores a comprehensive class of time-changed stochastic processes constructed by subordinating Brownian motion with Levy processes, where the subordination is further governed by stochastic arrival mechanisms such as the Cox Ingersoll Ross (CIR) and Chan Karolyi Longstaff Sanders (CKLS)

July 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

EFS: Evolutionary Factor Searching for Sparse Portfolio Optimization Using Large Language Models

Sparse portfolio optimization is a fundamental yet challenging problem in quantitative finance, since traditional approaches heavily relying on historical return statistics and static objectives can hardly adapt to dynamic market regimes. To address this issue, we propose Evolutionary Factor Search

July 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Optimal Trading under Instantaneous and Persistent Price Impact, Predictable Returns and Multiscale Stochastic Volatility

We consider a dynamic portfolio optimization problem that incorporates predictable returns, instantaneous transaction costs, price impact, and stochastic volatility, extending the classical results of Garleanu and Pedersen (2013), which assume constant volatility. Constructing the optimal portfolio

July 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Statistical modeling of SOFR term structure

SOFR derivatives market remains illiquid and incomplete so it is not amenable to classical risk-neutral term structure models which are based on the assumption of perfect liquidity and completeness. This paper develops a statistical SOFR term structure model that is well-suited for risk management a

July 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Time Deep Gradient Flow Method for pricing American options

In this research, we explore neural network-based methods for pricing multidimensional American put options under the BlackScholes and Heston model, extending up to five dimensions. We focus on two approaches: the Time Deep Gradient Flow (TDGF) method and the Deep Galerkin Method (DGM). We extend th

July 23, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Adaptive Market Intelligence: A Mixture of Experts Framework for Volatility-Sensitive Stock Forecasting

This study develops and empirically validates a Mixture of Experts (MoE) framework for stock price prediction across heterogeneous volatility regimes using real market data. The proposed model combines a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) optimized for high-volatility stocks with a linear regression mod

July 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Alternative Loss Function in Evaluation of Transformer Models

The proper design and architecture of testing machine learning models, especially in their application to quantitative finance problems, is crucial. The most important aspect of this process is selecting an adequate loss function for training, validation, estimation purposes, and hyperparameter tuni

July 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Benchmarking Classical and Quantum Models for DeFi Yield Prediction on Curve Finance

The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) has created a growing demand for accurate yield and performance forecasting to guide liquidity allocation strategies. In this study, we benchmark six models, XGBoost, Random Forest, LSTM, Transformer, quantum neural networks (QNN), and quantum support vector

July 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Binary Tree Option Pricing Under Market Microstructure Effects: A Random Forest Approach

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correl

July 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Can Limited Liability Increase Stability for Banks: A Dynamic Portfolio Approach

We present a novel approach for the bank’s decision problem, incorporating Limited Liability in the objective function. Accordingly, we consider continuous time models, with and without Limited Liability. We compare the solutions of these two models to demonstrate the effect of inclusion of Limited

July 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Diversification and Stochastic Dominance: When All Eggs Are Better Put in One Basket

Diversification is usually viewed as a reliable way to reduce risk, yet it can dramatically fail for heavy-tailed losses with infinite mean: pooling independent losses of this type may increase tail risk at every threshold. We study this reversal by comparing a diversified portfolio (a weighted aver

July 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Modeling for the Growth of Unorganized Retailing in the Presence of Organized and E-Retailing in Indian Pharmaceutical Industry

The present study considers the rural pharmaceutical retail sector in India, where the arrival of organized retailers and e-retailers is testing the survival strategies of unorganized retailers. Grounded in a field investigation of the Indian pharmaceutical retail sector, this study integrates prima

July 22, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Approaches for modelling the term-structure of default risk under IFRS 9: A tutorial using discrete-time survival analysis

Under the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9, credit losses ought to be recognised timeously and accurately. This requirement belies a certain degree of dynamicity when estimating the constituent parts of a credit loss event, most notably the probability of default (PD). It is noto

July 21, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Implementing Optimal Taxation: A Constrained Optimization Framework for Tax Reform

While optimal taxation theory provides clear prescriptions for tax design, translating these insights into actual tax codes remains difficult. Existing work largely offers theoretical characterizations of optimal systems, while practical implementation methods are scarce. Bridging this gap involves

July 21, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Prediction of linear fractional stable motions using codifference, with application to non-Gaussian rough volatility

The linear fractional stable motion (LFSM) extends the fractional Brownian motion (fBm) by considering $α$-stable increments. We propose a method to forecast future increments of the LFSM from past discrete-time observations, using the conditional expectation when $α>1$ or a semimetric projection ot

July 21, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Strategic competition in informal risk sharing mechanism versus collective index insurance

The frequent occurrence of natural disasters has posed significant challenges to society, necessitating the urgent development of effective risk management strategies. From the early informal community-based risk sharing mechanisms to modern formal index insurance products, risk management tools hav

July 21, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Comparative Analysis of Statistical and Machine Learning Models for Outlier Detection in Bitcoin Limit Order Books

The detection of outliers within cryptocurrency limit order books (LOBs) is of paramount importance for comprehending market dynamics, particularly in highly volatile and nascent regulatory environments. This study conducts a comprehensive comparative analysis of robust statistical methods and advan

July 20, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space