Quantifying the uncertainty of forecasting models is essential to assess and mitigate the risks associated with data-driven decisions, especially in volatile domains such as electricity markets. Machine learning methods can provide highly accurate electricity price forecasts, critical for informing
This study investigates the impact of the pandemic on the most traded stocks in the Colombian stock market for the date of January 17, 2024. Based on the daily data of the most traded companies in Colombia for said date and covering a period general from 2015 to 2023, in a summarized way our analysi
Portfolio optimization has long been dominated by covariance-based strategies, such as the Markowitz Mean-Variance framework. However, these approaches often fail to ensure a balanced risk structure across assets, leading to concentration in a few securities. In this paper, we introduce novel risk m
In this paper, we study an investor’s optimal entry and exit decisions in a liquid staking protocol (LSP) and an automated market maker (AMM), primarily from the standpoint of the investor. Our analysis focuses on two key investor actions: the initial allocation decision at time $t=0$, and the optim
Bitcoin treasury companies have taken stock markets by storm amassing billions of dollars worth of tokens in hundreds of entities. The paper discusses, how leverage - whether created through corporate debt or investors using stock as loan collateral - fuels this trend. The extension of the binary-ch
Tokenized U.S. Treasuries have emerged as a prominent subclass of real-world assets (RWAs), offering cryptographically enforced, yield-bearing instruments collateralized by sovereign debt and deployed across multiple blockchain networks. While the market has expanded rapidly, empirical analyses of t
We introduce a method for describing eigenvalue distributions of correlation matrices from multidimensional time series. Using our newly developed matrix H theory, we improve the description of eigenvalue spectra for empirical correlation matrices in multivariate financial data by considering an inf
Law-invariant functionals are central to risk management and assign identical values to random prospects sharing the same distribution under an atomless reference probability measure. This measure is typically assumed fixed. Here, we adopt the reverse perspective: given only observed functional valu
We introduce a new actuarial tail-shape index, the $θ$-index, based on a probability equal level relationship between Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. The index is defined at each tail probability level as the parameter value for which Value at Risk coincides with Flexible Expected Shortfall, t
This paper explores the interplay between transfer policies, R&D, corruption, and economic development using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and a government. The government collects taxes, redistributes fiscal revenues, and undertakes public investment (in R&D, infrastructure,
This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the economics and dynamics behind arbitrages between centralized and decentralized exchanges (CEX-DEX) on Ethereum. We refine heuristics to identify arbitrage transactions from on-chain data and introduce a robust empirical framework to estim
The COS method is a very efficient way to compute European option prices under Lévy models or affine stochastic volatility models, based on a Fourier Cosine expansion of the density, involving the characteristic function. This note shows how to compute the COS method formula with a non-uniform fast
Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have historically relied on trend-following rules that operate on vastly different horizons from long-term breakouts that capture major directional moves to short-term momentum signals that thrive in fast-moving markets. Despite a large body of work on trend followi
This dissertation develops and justifies a novel method for deriving approximate formulas to estimate two parameters in stochastic volatility diffusion models with exponentially-affine characteristic functions and single- or two-factor variance. These formulas aim to improve the accuracy of option p
We reinterpret and propose a framework for pricing path-dependent financial derivatives by estimating the full distribution of payoffs using Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL). Unlike traditional methods that focus on expected option value, our approach models the entire conditional dist
This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have demonstrated significant limitations during periods of market stre
Rapid growth of digital transactions has led to a surge in fraudulent activities, challenging traditional detection methods in the financial sector. To tackle this problem, we introduce a specialised federated learning framework that uniquely combines a quantum-enhanced Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)
We consider the pricing of energy spread options for spot prices following an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a sum of independent multivariate variance gamma processes, which gives rise to mean-reverting, infinite activity price dynamics. Within this class of driving processes, the
We propose a mathematically rigorous framework for identifying and completing Coincidence of Wants (CoW) cycles in decentralized exchange (DEX) aggregators. Unlike existing auction based systems such as CoWSwap, our approach introduces an asset matrix formulation that not only verifies feasibility u
This paper provides insight into the estimation and asymptotic behavior of parameters in interest rate models, focusing primarily on the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process and its extension – the more general Chan-Karolyi-Longstaff-Sanders (CKLS) framework ($α\in[“0.5,1”]$). The CIR process is widely