To Trade or Not to Trade: An Agentic Approach to Estimating Market Risk Improves Trading Decisions

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in agentic frameworks, in which prompts trigger complex tool-based analysis in pursuit of a goal. While these frameworks have shown promise across multiple domains including in finance, they typically lack a principled model-building step, relyi

July 11, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Regression-Based Share Market Prediction Model for Bangladesh

Share market is one of the most important sectors of economic development of a country. Everyday almost all companies issue their shares and investors buy and sell shares of these companies. Generally investors want to buy shares of the companies whose market liquidity is comparatively greater. Mark

July 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Entity-Specific Cyber Risk Assessment using InsurTech Empowered Risk Factors

The lack of high-quality public cyber incident data limits empirical research and predictive modeling for cyber risk assessment. This challenge persists due to the reluctance of companies to disclose incidents that could damage their reputation or investor confidence. Therefore, from an actuarial pe

July 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multi-Scale Network Dynamics and Systemic Risk: A Model Context Protocol Approach to Financial Markets

This paper introduces a novel framework for analyzing systemic risk in financial markets through multi-scale network dynamics using Model Context Protocol (MCP) for agent communication. We develop an integrated approach that combines transfer entropy networks, agent-based modeling, and wavelet decom

July 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Three-level qualitative classification of financial risks under varying conditions through first passage times

This work focuses on financial risks from a probabilistic point of view. The value of a firm is described as a geometric Brownian motion and default emerges as a first passage time event. On the technical side, the critical threshold that the value process has to cross to trigger the default is assu

July 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Variable annuities: A closer look at ratchet guarantees, hybrid contract designs, and taxation

This paper investigates optimal withdrawal strategies and behavior of policyholders in a variable annuity (VA) contract with a guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefit (GMWB) rider incorporating taxation and a ratchet mechanism for enhancing the benefit base during the life of the contract. Mathematica

July 10, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

From Rattle to Roar: Optimizer Showdown for MambaStock on S&P 500

We evaluate the performance of several optimizers on the task of forecasting S&P 500 Index returns with the MambaStock model. Among the most widely used algorithms, gradient-smoothing and adaptive-rate optimizers (for example, Adam and RMSProp) yield the lowest test errors. In contrast, the Lion opt

July 9, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Large-scale portfolio optimization with variational neural annealing

Portfolio optimization is a routine asset management operation conducted in financial institutions around the world. However, under real-world constraints such as turnover limits and transaction costs, its formulation becomes a mixed-integer nonlinear program that current mixed-integer optimizers of

July 9, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Time Series Foundation Models for Multivariate Financial Time Series Forecasting

Financial time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, variable interdependencies and limited data availability, particularly for tasks involving low-frequency data, newly listed instruments, or emerging market assets. Time Se

July 9, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Beating the Best Constant Rebalancing Portfolio in Long-Term Investment: A Generalization of the Kelly Criterion and Universal Learning Algorithm for Markets with Serial Dependence

In the online portfolio optimization framework, existing learning algorithms generate strategies that yield significantly poorer cumulative wealth compared to the best constant rebalancing portfolio in hindsight, despite being consistent in asymptotic growth rate. While this unappealing performance

July 8, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Event-Time Anchor Selection for Multi-Contract Quoting

When quoting across multiple contracts, the sequence of execution can be a key driver of implementation shortfall relative to the target spread~\cite{“bergault2022multi”}. We model the short-horizon execution risk from such quoting as variations in transaction prices between the initiation of the fi

July 8, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Machine Learning based Enterprise Financial Audit Framework and High Risk Identification

In the face of global economic uncertainty, financial auditing has become essential for regulatory compliance and risk mitigation. Traditional manual auditing methods are increasingly limited by large data volumes, complex business structures, and evolving fraud tactics. This study proposes an AI-dr

July 8, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Reinforcement Learning for Trade Execution with Market Impact

In this paper, we introduce a novel reinforcement learning framework for optimal trade execution in a limit order book. We formulate the trade execution problem as a dynamic allocation task whose objective is the optimal placement of market and limit orders to maximize expected revenue. By employing

July 8, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Advancing Financial Engineering with Foundation Models: Progress, Applications, and Challenges

The advent of foundation models (FMs), large-scale pre-trained models with strong generalization capabilities, has opened new frontiers for financial engineering. While general-purpose FMs such as GPT-4 and Gemini have demonstrated promising performance in tasks ranging from financial report summari

July 7, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Community Bail Fund Systems: Fluid Limits and Approximations

Community bail funds (CBFs) assist individuals who have been arrested and cannot afford bail, preventing unnecessary pretrial incarceration along with its harmful or sometimes fatal consequences. By posting bail, CBFs allow defendants to stay at home and maintain their livelihoods until trial. This

July 7, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

F&O Expiry vs. First-Day SIPs: A 22-Year Analysis of Timing Advantages in India's Nifty 50

Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) are a primary vehicle for retail equity participation in India, yet the impact of their intra-month timing remains underexplored. This study offers a 22-year (2003–2024) comparative analysis of SIP performance in the Nifty 50 index, contrasting the conventional fir

July 7, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

FinSurvival: A Suite of Large Scale Survival Modeling Tasks from Finance

Survival modeling predicts the time until an event occurs and is widely used in risk analysis; for example, it’s used in medicine to predict the survival of a patient based on censored data. There is a need for large-scale, realistic, and freely available datasets for benchmarking artificial intelli

July 7, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Representation learning with a transformer by contrastive learning for money laundering detection

The present work tackles the money laundering detection problem. A new procedure is introduced which exploits structured time series of both qualitative and quantitative data by means of a transformer neural network. The first step of this procedure aims at learning representations of time series th

July 7, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

The connection of the stability of the binary choice model with its discriminatory power

The key indicators of model stability are the population stability index (PSI), which uses the difference in population distribution, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic (KS) between two distributions. When deriving a binary choice model, the question arises about the real Gini index for any new mo

July 7, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Behavioral Probability Weighting and Portfolio Optimization under Semi-Heavy Tails

This paper develops a unified framework that integrates behavioral distortions into rational portfolio optimization by extracting implied probability weighting functions (PWFs) from optimal portfolios modeled under Gaussian and Normal-Inverse-Gaussian (NIG) return distributions. Using DJIA constitue

July 6, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space