Foundation Time-Series AI Model for Realized Volatility Forecasting

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. These models are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series domains, including financial data. In this study, we evalua

May 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Stablecoins and the Emerging Hybrid Monetary Ecosystems

With market capitalization exceeding USD250 billion by mid-2025, stablecoins have evolved from a crypto-focused innovation into a vital component of the global monetary structure. This paper identifies the characteristics of stablecoins from an analytical perspective and investigates the role of sta

May 16, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A Scalable Gradient-Based Optimization Framework for Sparse Minimum-Variance Portfolio Selection

Portfolio optimization involves selecting asset weights to minimize a risk-reward objective, such as the portfolio variance in the classical minimum-variance framework. Sparse portfolio selection extends this by imposing a cardinality constraint: only $k$ assets from a universe of $p$ may be include

May 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Assessing innovation in the nascent value chains of climate-mitigating technologies

Accelerating climate-tech innovation in the formative stage of the technology life cycle is crucial to meeting climate policy goals. During this period, competing technologies are often undergoing major technical improvements within a nascent value chain. We analyze this formative stage for 14 clima

May 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Choices or constraints: decoding financial empowerment among women entrepreneurs in France

This research examines the empowerment of women entrepreneurs in the context of entrepreneurial financing in France. It explores the factors that allow some women entrepreneurs to access certain categories of external finance more easily. The theoretical framework used is based on the concept of emp

May 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Reproducing the first and second moment of empirical degree distributions

The study of probabilistic models for the analysis of complex networks represents a flourishing research field. Among the former, Exponential Random Graphs (ERGs) have gained increasing attention over the years. So far, only linear ERGs have been extensively employed to gain insight into the structu

May 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Words That Unite The World: A Unified Framework for Deciphering Central Bank Communications Globally

Central banks around the world play a crucial role in maintaining economic stability. Deciphering policy implications in their communications is essential, especially as misinterpretations can disproportionately impact vulnerable populations. To address this, we introduce the World Central Banks (WC

May 15, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

An Efficient deep learning model to Predict Stock Price Movement Based on Limit Order Book

In high-frequency trading (HFT), leveraging limit order books (LOB) to model stock price movements is crucial for achieving profitable outcomes. However, this task is challenging due to the high-dimensional and volatile nature of the original data. Even recent deep learning models often struggle to

May 14, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Beyond the Black Box: Interpretability of LLMs in Finance

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit remarkable capabilities across a spectrum of tasks in financial services, including report generation, chatbots, sentiment analysis, regulatory compliance, investment advisory, financial knowledge retrieval, and summarization. However, their intrinsic complexity

May 14, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Fast Learning in Quantitative Finance with Extreme Learning Machine

A critical factor in adopting machine learning for time-sensitive financial tasks is computational speed, including model training and inference. This paper demonstrates that a broad class of such problems, especially those previously addressed using deep neural networks, can be efficiently solved u

May 14, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

FLUXLAYER: High-Performance Design for Cross-chain Fragmented Liquidity

Autonomous Market Makers (AMMs) rely on arbitrage to facilitate passive price updates. Liquidity fragmentation poses a complex challenge across different blockchain networks. This paper proposes FluxLayer, a solution to mitigate fragmented liquidity and capture the maximum extractable value (MEV) in

May 14, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Gatheral double stochastic volatility model with Skorokhod reflection

We investigate the Gatheral model of double mean-reverting stochastic volatility, in which the drift term itself follows a mean-reverting process, and the overall model exhibits mean-reverting behavior. We demonstrate that such processes can attain values arbitrarily close to zero and remain near ze

May 14, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Monte-Carlo Option Pricing in Quantum Parallel

Financial derivative pricing is a significant challenge in finance, involving the valuation of instruments like options based on underlying assets. While some cases have simple solutions, many require complex classical computational methods like Monte Carlo simulations and numerical techniques. Howe

May 14, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

An Efficient Multi-scale Leverage Effect Estimator under Dependent Microstructure Noise

Estimating the leverage effect from high-frequency data is vital but challenged by complex, dependent microstructure noise, often exhibiting non-Gaussian higher-order moments. This paper introduces a novel multi-scale framework for efficient and robust leverage effect estimation under such flexible

May 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Forecasting Intraday Volume in Equity Markets with Machine Learning

This study focuses on forecasting intraday trading volumes, a crucial component for portfolio implementation, especially in high-frequency (HF) trading environments. Given the current scarcity of flexible methods in this area, we employ a suite of machine learning (ML) models enriched with numerous

May 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Measure-Valued CARMA Processes

In this paper, we examine continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (CARMA) processes on Banach spaces driven by Lévy subordinators. We show their existence and cone-invariance, investigate their first and second order moment structure, and derive explicit conditions for their stationarity. Spec

May 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

The value of partial information

We investigate a pricing rule that is applicable for streams of income or contingent claim liabilities and study how this rule changes under additional insider-type information that an investor might obtain. Considering a model where the risky asset might have jumps, we obtain an explicit form of th

May 13, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

DeFi Liquidation Risk Modeling Using Geometric Brownian Motion

In this paper, we propose an analytical method to compute the collateral liquidation probability in decentralized finance (DeFi) stablecoin single-collateral lending. Our approach models the collateral exchange rate as a zero-drift geometric Brownian motion, and derives the probability of it crossin

May 12, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

DELPHYNE: A Pre-Trained Model for General and Financial Time Series

Time-series data is a vital modality within data science communities. This is particularly valuable in financial applications, where it helps in detecting patterns, understanding market behavior, and making informed decisions based on historical data. Recent advances in language modeling have led to

May 12, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Mean Field Portfolio Games with Epstein-Zin Preferences

We study mean field portfolio games under Epstein-Zin preferences, which naturally encompass the classical time-additive power utility as a special case. In a general non-Markovian framework, we establish a uniqueness result by proving a one-to-one correspondence between Nash equilibria and the solu

May 12, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space