Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Models in Asset Pricing: An Empirical Study on Large-Cap US Stocks

In this study, MLP models with dynamic structure are applied to factor models for asset pricing tasks. Concretely, the MLP pyramid model structure was employed on firm-characteristic-sorted portfolio factors for modelling the large-capital US stocks. It was further developed as a practicable factor

May 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Stochastic dominance for linear combinations of infinite-mean risks

In this paper, we establish a sufficient condition to compare linear combinations of independent and identically distributed (iid) infinite-mean random variables under usual stochastic order. We introduce a new class of distributions that includes many commonly used heavy-tailed distributions and sh

May 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Well-posedness of behavioral singular stochastic control problems

We investigate the well-posedness of a general class of singular stochastic control problems in which controls are processes of finite variation. We develop an abstract framework, which we then apply to storage management and portfolio investment problems under proportional transaction costs. Within

May 3, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A stochastic Gordon-Loeb model for optimal cybersecurity investment under clustered attacks

We develop a continuous-time stochastic model for optimal cybersecurity investment under the threat of cyberattacks. The arrival of attacks is modeled using a Hawkes process, capturing the empirically relevant feature of clustering in cyberattacks. Extending the Gordon-Loeb model, each attack may re

May 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Asset Pricing in Pre-trained Transformer

This paper proposes an innovative Transformer model, Single-directional representative from Transformer (SERT), for US large capital stock pricing. It also innovatively applies the pre-trained Transformer models under the stock pricing and factor investment context. They are compared with standard T

May 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Modelling Financial Market Imperfection Using Open Quantum Systems

We start with the idea that open quantum systems can be used to represent financial markets by modelling events from the external environment and their impact on the market price. We show how to characterize distinct orbits of the time evolution, and look at the development of the reduced density ma

May 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Multiscale Causal Analysis of Market Efficiency via News Uncertainty Networks and the Financial Chaos Index

This study evaluates the scale-dependent informational efficiency of stock markets using the Financial Chaos Index, a tensor-eigenvalue-based measure of realized volatility. Incorporating Granger causality and network-theoretic analysis across a range of economic, policy, and news-based uncertainty

May 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Towards modelling lifetime default risk: Exploring different subtypes of recurrent event Cox-regression models

In the pursuit of modelling a loan’s probability of default (PD) over its lifetime, repeat default events are often ignored when using Cox Proportional Hazard (PH) models. Excluding such events may produce biased and inaccurate PD-estimates, which can compromise financial buffers against future loss

May 2, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A new architecture of high-order deep neural networks that learn martingales

A new deep-learning neural network architecture based on high-order weak approximation algorithms for stochastic differential equations (SDEs) is proposed. The architecture enables the efficient learning of martingales by deep learning models. The behaviour of deep neural networks based on this arch

May 1, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Numerical analysis on locally risk-minimizing strategies for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard models

We develop a numerical method for locally risk-minimizing (LRM) strategies for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BNS) models. Arai et al. (2017) derived a mathematical expression for LRM strategies in BNS models using Malliavin calculus for Lévy processes and presented some numerical results only for

May 1, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Approximation and regularity results for the Heston model and related processes

This Ph.D. thesis explores approximations and regularity for the Heston stochastic volatility model through three interconnected works. The first work focuses on developing high-order weak approximations for the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) process, essential for financial modelling but challenging due

April 30, 2025 · 3 min · thequant.space

Can Nash inform capital requirements? Allocating systemic risk measures

Systemic risk measures aggregate the risks from multiple financial institutions to find system-wide capital requirements. Though much attention has been given to assessing the level of systemic risk, less has been given to allocating that risk to the constituent institutions. Within this work, we pr

April 29, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

ClusterLOB: Enhancing Trading Strategies by Clustering Orders in Limit Order Books

In the rapidly evolving world of financial markets, understanding the dynamics of limit order book (LOB) is crucial for unraveling market microstructure and participant behavior. We introduce ClusterLOB as a method to cluster individual market events in a stream of market-by-order (MBO) data into di

April 29, 2025 · 3 min · thequant.space

Scaling and shape of financial returns distributions modeled as conditionally independent random variables

We show that assuming that the returns are independent when conditioned on the value of their variance (volatility), which itself varies in time randomly, then the distribution of returns is well described by the statistics of the sum of conditionally independent random variables. In particular, we

April 29, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

A high-order recombination algorithm for weak approximation of stochastic differential equations

This paper presents an algorithm for applying the high-order recombination method, originally introduced by Lyons and Litterer in ``High-order recombination and an application to cubature on Wiener space’’ (Ann. Appl. Probab. 22(4):1301–1327, 2012), to practical problems in mathematical finance. A r

April 28, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Analyzing distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for unimodal and symmetric distributions under partial information constraints

In this paper, we develop the lower and upper bounds of worst-case distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for unimodal, and symmetric unimodal distributions when mean and variance information are available. We also consider the sharp upper bounds of distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy f

April 28, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Compounding Effects in Leveraged ETFs: Beyond the Volatility Drag Paradigm

A common belief is that leveraged ETFs (LETFs) suffer long-term performance decay due to \emph{“volatility drag”}. We show that this view is incomplete: LETF performance depends fundamentally on return autocorrelation and return dynamics. In markets with independent returns, LETFs exhibit positive e

April 28, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Deep Declarative Risk Budgeting Portfolios

Recent advances in deep learning have spurred the development of end-to-end frameworks for portfolio optimization that utilize implicit layers. However, many such implementations are highly sensitive to neural network initialization, undermining performance consistency. This research introduces a ro

April 28, 2025 · 1 min · thequant.space

Financial Data Analysis with Robust Federated Logistic Regression

In this study, we focus on the analysis of financial data in a federated setting, wherein data is distributed across multiple clients or locations, and the raw data never leaves the local devices. Our primary focus is not only on the development of efficient learning frameworks (for protecting user

April 28, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space

Mechanisms of information communication and market price movements. The case of SP 500 market

In this paper we analyze how market prices change in response to information processing among the market participants and how non-linear information dynamics drive market price movement. We analyze historical data of the SP 500 market for the period 1950 -2025 using the logistic Continuous Wavelet T

April 28, 2025 · 2 min · thequant.space