Ploutos: Towards interpretable stock movement prediction with financial large language model

ArXiv ID: 2403.00782 “View on arXiv”

Authors: Unknown

Abstract

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have opened new pathways for many domains. However, the full potential of LLMs in financial investments remains largely untapped. There are two main challenges for typical deep learning-based methods for quantitative finance. First, they struggle to fuse textual and numerical information flexibly for stock movement prediction. Second, traditional methods lack clarity and interpretability, which impedes their application in scenarios where the justification for predictions is essential. To solve the above challenges, we propose Ploutos, a novel financial LLM framework that consists of PloutosGen and PloutosGPT. The PloutosGen contains multiple primary experts that can analyze different modal data, such as text and numbers, and provide quantitative strategies from different perspectives. Then PloutosGPT combines their insights and predictions and generates interpretable rationales. To generate accurate and faithful rationales, the training strategy of PloutosGPT leverage rearview-mirror prompting mechanism to guide GPT-4 to generate rationales, and a dynamic token weighting mechanism to finetune LLM by increasing key tokens weight. Extensive experiments show our framework outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on both prediction accuracy and interpretability.

Keywords: Large Language Models, Stock Prediction, Multimodal Fusion, Interpretability, Quantitative Finance, Equities

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 2.0/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 8.5/10
  • Quadrant: Street Traders
  • Why: The paper focuses on implementing and integrating existing deep learning and LLM techniques with novel prompting strategies for stock prediction, relying heavily on data processing, model fine-tuning, and backtesting results rather than presenting new theoretical mathematics.
  flowchart TD
    A["Research Goal<br>Interpretable Stock Prediction"] --> B["Input Data<br>Financial Text & Numerical Data"]
    B --> C["PloutosGen<br>Multimodal Expert Fusion"]
    C --> D["PloutosGPT<br>LLM Rationale Generation"]
    D --> E["Training Mechanisms<br>Rearview-Mirror Prompting<br>Dynamic Token Weighting"]
    E --> F["Output<br>Accurate Prediction + Interpretable Rationale"]
    F --> G["Outcome<br>Outperforms SOTA<br>in Accuracy & Interpretability"]