Prima de Riesgo del Mercado: Histórica, Esperada, Exigida e Implícita (Market Risk Premium: Historical, Expected, Required and Implied)

ArXiv ID: ssrn-897676 “View on arXiv”

Authors: Unknown

Abstract

Spanish Abstract: La Prima de Riesgo del Mercado es uno de los parámetros financieros más investigados y controvertidos, y también uno de los que más con

Keywords: Risk Premium, Asset Pricing, Market Risk, Financial Markets, Spanish Literature, Equities / Market Risk

Complexity vs Empirical Score

• Math Complexity: 2.5/10
• Empirical Rigor: 4.0/10
• Quadrant: Philosophers
• Why: The paper is primarily a conceptual review and comparison of different definitions (historical, expected, required, implied) of the market risk premium, with minimal advanced mathematics, focusing instead on historical data analysis and literature synthesis. It lacks code, backtests, or heavy statistical models, placing it in the low math and low empirical rigor quadrant.

  flowchart TD
    A["Research Goal<br>Determine the most adequate Market Risk Premium<br>estimation methodology"] --> B

    subgraph B ["Methodology & Data"]
        direction LR
        B1["Data Collection<br>Spanish Equity Market"] --> B2["Analysis Types<br>Historical, Expected, Required, Implied"]
        B2 --> B3["Computational Models<br>CAPM & Market Consensus"]
    end

    B --> C{"Analysis Process"}
    C --> D["Synthesize Diverse<br>Premium Estimates"]
    D --> E["Key Findings & Outcomes<br>1. No single universal premium exists<br>2. Methodology must match analysis context<br>3. Practical consensus favors 3.5%-5.5% range<br>4. Justification of premium is as critical as the number"]