Paper: SSRN 3132563

Abstract

Click link for full abstract.

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 4.5/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 1.5/10
  • Quadrant: Philosophers — conceptual discussion, limited math and data

Why this score: The paper uses discrete-time recursion and basic probability for a simplified model, but it is fundamentally a conceptual discussion on decision-making, with no backtesting or complex statistical methods.

Research Flowchart

  flowchart TD
  A["Research Goal:<br>Do optimal abandonment<br>strategies apply to finance?"] --> B{"Methodology"}
  B --> C["Data: NHL Pull-Goalie Events"]
  B --> D["Input: Market Options Data"]
  C & D --> E["Computation:<br>Real Options Analysis"]
  E --> F["Outcome:<br>Market analogies identified"]
  F --> G["Findings:<br>Validates strategic<br>abandonment logic"]