Paper: arXiv 2311.03224

Authors: Armin Asaadi, Armita Atrian, Hesam Nik Hoseini, Mohammad Mahdi Movahedi

Abstract

Project managers play a crucial role in the success of projects. The selection of an appropriate project manager is a primary concern for senior managers in firms. Typically, this process involves candidate interviews and assessments of their abilities. There are various criteria for selecting a project manager, and the importance of each criterion depends on the project type, its conditions, and the risks associated with their absence in the chosen candidate. Often, senior managers in engineering companies lack awareness of the significance of these criteria and the potential risks linked to their absence. This research aims to identify these risks in selecting project managers for civil engineering projects, utilizing a combined ANP-FMEA approach. Through a comprehensive literature review, five risk categories have been identified: individual skills, power-related issues, knowledge and expertise, experience, and personality traits. Subsequently, these risks, along with their respective sub-criteria and internal relationships, were analysed using the combined ANP-FMEA technique. The results highlighted that the lack of political influence, absence of construction experience, and deficiency in project management expertise represent the most substantial risks in selecting a project manager. Moreover, upon comparison with the traditional FMEA approach, this study demonstrates the superior ability of the ANP-FMEA model in differentiating risks and pinpointing factors with elevated risk levels.

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 3.5/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 4.0/10
  • Quadrant: Philosophers — conceptual discussion, limited math and data

Why this score: The paper applies established Analytic Network Process (ANP) and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) techniques to project manager selection in civil engineering. While the combination offers marginal utility over traditional FMEA, the mathematical framework relies on standard Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) matrix operations with limited quantitative backtesting or rigorous empirical validation beyond basic survey-based risk ranking.

Research Flowchart

  flowchart TD
    A["Research Goal: Identify & Analyze PM Selection Risks in Civil Engineering"] --> B["Literature Review: Identify 5 Risk Categories & Sub-criteria"]
    B --> C["Data Collection: Expert Evaluation of Risks & Dependencies"]
    C --> D["Hybrid ANP-FMEA Processing: Model Internal Relationships & Risk Priorities"]
    D --> E["Comparative Analysis: Hybrid ANP-FMEA vs. Traditional FMEA"]
    E --> F["Key Findings: Top Risks (Lack of Political Influence, Construction Experience, PM Expertise) & ANP-FMEA Superiority"]