The Oxford Olympics Study 2024: Are Cost and Cost Overrun at the Games Coming Down?

Paper: arXiv 2406.01714

Authors: Alexander Budzier, Bent Flyvbjerg

Abstract

The present paper is an update of the “Oxford Olympics Study 2016” (Flyvbjerg et al. 2016). We document that the Games remain costly and continue to have large cost overruns, to a degree that threatens their viability. The IOC is aware of the problem and has initiated reform. We assess the reforms and find: (a) Olympic costs are statistically significantly increasing; prior analysis did not show this trend; it is a step in the wrong direction. (b) Cost overruns were decreasing until 2008, but have increased since then; again a step in the wrong direction. (c) At present, the cost of Paris 2024 is USD 8.7 billion (2022 level) and cost overruns is 115% in real terms; this is not the cheap Games that were promised. (d) Cost overruns are the norm for the Games, past, present, and future; they are the only project type that never delivered on budget. We assess a new IOC policy of reducing cost by reusing existing venues instead of building new ones. We find that reuse did not have the desired effect for Tokyo 2020 and also look ineffective for Paris 2024. Finally, we recommend that the Games look to other types of megaprojects for better data, better forecasting, and how to generate the positive learning curves that are necessary for bringing costs and overrun down. Only if this happens are Los Angeles 2028 and Brisbane 2032 likely to live up to the IOC’s intentions of a more affordable Games that more cities will want to host.

Complexity vs Empirical Score

• Math Complexity: 2.5/10
• Empirical Rigor: 6.5/10
• Quadrant: Street Traders — practical and empirical, lighter on theory

Why this score: The paper provides an updated empirical study on Olympic Games cost overruns using a solid statistical framework (Wilcoxon tests, sandwich-corrected t-tests, local polynomial regressions) rather than advanced quantitative finance math. It presents well-documented, real-world data tracking cost escalation over decades, offering practical policy insights for megaproject risk assessment.

Research Flowchart

  flowchart TD
    A[Research Goal: Assess if Olympic Costs and Cost Overruns Are Decreasing via IOC Reforms] --> B[Data Inputs: Historical Olympic Games Cost Data & Paris 2024 Estimates]
    B --> C[Methodology: Statistical Trend Analysis & Megaproject Analytics]
    C --> D[Evaluation: Impact Assessment of IOC Policies e.g., Venue Reuse in Tokyo 2020 & Paris 2024]
    D --> E[Key Finding 1: Costs Increasing & Cost Overruns Rising Since 2008 100% History of Overruns]
    D --> F[Key Finding 2: Venue Reuse Policy Ineffective; Paris 2024 Over Budget at USD 8.7B +115%]
    E --> G[Recommendations: Adopt Megaproject Forecasting, Better Data, and Positive Learning Curves for LA 2028 & Brisbane 2032]
    F --> G

Cited References (32)

1. Building a better host city? Reforming and contesting the Olympics in Paris 2024 (2022) — link
2. Tokyo 2020 Olympics sustainability: An elusive concept or reality? (2022) — link
3. The structural deficit of the Olympics and the World Cup: Comparing costs against revenues over time (2022) — link
4. The declining appeal of mega-events in entrepreneurial cities: From Los Angeles 1984 to Los Angeles 2028 (2022) — link
5. The mega-events database: systematising the evidence on mega-event outcomes (2021) — link
6. The New Agenda 2020+5 and the Future Challenges for the Olympic Movement (2021) — link
7. An evaluation of the sustainability of the Olympic Games (2021) — link
8. The causal economic effects of Olympic Games on host regions (2021) — link

0 of 32 cited works are in the corpus; resolved via arXiv source bundles, Semantic Scholar and OpenAlex. Corpus-wide: 2518 linked papers.