Paper: SSRN 2701093

Abstract

The growth of subscription-based commerce has seen a change in the types of data firms report to external shareholders. More than ever before, companies are dis

Complexity vs Empirical Score

  • Math Complexity: 4.5/10
  • Empirical Rigor: 6.5/10
  • Quadrant: Street Traders — practical and empirical, lighter on theory

Why this score: The paper employs moderate statistical modeling (e.g., retention, acquisition models) and valuation mathematics (DCF) but is heavily grounded in applying these models to real-world, publicly available data from companies like Dish Network and Sirius XM, focusing on practical implementation and backtesting against disclosed metrics.

Research Flowchart

  flowchart TD
  A["Research Goal: Value Subscription Businesses Using Public Customer Data"] --> B{"Key Methodology"}
  B --> C["Data: Public Disclosures<br/>Subscribers, Churn, ARPU, LTV"]
  C --> D["Computational Model<br/>Discounted Cash Flow DCF"]
  D --> E["Estimate Customer Lifetime Value<br/>Model Revenue & Churn Dynamics"]
  E --> F["Key Findings/Outcomes"]
  F --> G["1. Methodology improves valuation transparency"]
  F --> H["2. Public data can approximate internal metrics"]
  F --> I["3. Non-GAAP metrics are value relevant"]