Deep Learning

Applying machine learning methods to forecast stock prices has been one of the research topics of interest in recent years. Almost few studies have been reported based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) in this area, but their results are promising. GANs are powerful generative models success

Artificial intelligence is creating one of the biggest revolution across technology driven application fields. For the finance sector, it offers many opportunities for significant market innovation and yet broad adoption of AI systems heavily relies on our trust in their outputs. Trust in technology

We develop a neural-network framework for multi-period risk–reward stochastic control problems with constrained two-step feedback policies that may be discontinuous in the state. We allow a broad class of objectives built on a finite-dimensional performance vector, including terminal and path-depen

Generative models for financial time series often create data that look realistic and even reproduce stylized facts such as fat tails or volatility clustering. However, these apparent successes break down under trading backtests: models like GANs or WGAN-GP frequently collapse, yielding extreme and

Financial text classification has increasingly become an important aspect in quantitative trading systems and related tasks, such as financial sentiment analysis and the classification of financial news. In this paper, we assess the performance of the large language model Qwen3-8B on both tasks. Qwe

The aim of this paper is the analysis and selection of stock trading systems that combine different models with data of different nature, such as financial and microeconomic information. Specifically, based on previous work by the authors and applying advanced techniques of Machine Learning and Deep

Robust yield curve estimation is crucial in fixed-income markets for accurate instrument pricing, effective risk management, and informed trading strategies. Traditional approaches, including the bootstrapping method and parametric Nelson-Siegel models, often struggle with overfitting or instability

Deep hedging uses recurrent neural networks to hedge financial products that cannot be fully hedged in incomplete markets. Previous work in this area focuses on minimizing some measure of quadratic hedging error by calculating pathwise gradients, but doing so requires large batch sizes and can make

There are inefficiencies in financial markets, with unexploited patterns in price, volume, and cross-sectional relationships. While many approaches use large-scale transformers, we take a domain-focused path: feed-forward and recurrent networks with curated features to capture subtle regularities in

Precise short-term price prediction in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market is critical for informed trading strategies. Although Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFTs) have shown potential, their direct use often struggles in the face of the market’s non-stationary nature and extreme volatility.

Filtering signal from noise is fundamental to accurately assessing spillover effects in financial markets. This study investigates denoised return and volatility spillovers across a diversified set of markets, spanning developed and developing economies as well as key asset classes, using a neural n

Autonomous trading strategies have been a subject of research within the field of artificial intelligence (AI) for aconsiderable period. Various AI techniques have been explored to develop autonomous agents capable of trading financial assets. These approaches encompass traditional methods such as n

In insurance fraud prediction, handling class imbalance remains a critical challenge. This paper presents a novel multistage focal loss function designed to enhance the performance of machine learning models in such imbalanced settings by helping to escape local minima and converge to a good solutio

Straddle Option is a financial trading tool that explores volatility premiums in high-volatility markets without predicting price direction. Although deep reinforcement learning has emerged as a powerful approach to trading automation in financial markets, existing work mostly focused on predicting

As decentralized finance (DeFi) evolves, distinguishing between user behaviors - liquidity provision versus active trading - has become vital for risk modeling and on-chain reputation. We propose a behavioral scoring framework for Uniswap that assigns two complementary scores: a Liquidity Provision

We evaluate the performance of several optimizers on the task of forecasting S&P 500 Index returns with the MambaStock model. Among the most widely used algorithms, gradient-smoothing and adaptive-rate optimizers (for example, Adam and RMSProp) yield the lowest test errors. In contrast, the Lion opt

Portfolio allocation via stock price prediction is inherently difficult due to the notoriously low signal-to-noise ratio of stock time series. This paper proposes a method by integrating wavelet transform convolution and channel attention with LSTM to implement stock price prediction based portfolio

In the complex landscape of traditional futures trading, where vast data and variables like real-time Limit Order Books (LOB) complicate price predictions, we introduce the FutureQuant Transformer model, leveraging attention mechanisms to navigate these challenges. Unlike conventional models focused

We present a general computational framework for solving continuous-time financial market equilibria under minimal modeling assumptions while incorporating realistic financial frictions, such as trading costs, and supporting multiple interacting agents. Inspired by generative adversarial networks (G

This study explores the integration of a representative large language model, ChatGPT, into lending decision-making with a focus on credit default prediction. Specifically, we use ChatGPT to analyse and interpret loan assessments written by loan officers and generate refined versions of these texts.

Masterminds are entities organizing, coordinating, and orchestrating cryptocurrency pump-and-dump schemes, a form of trade-based manipulation undermining market integrity and causing financial losses for unwitting investors. Previous research detects pump-and-dump activities in the market, predicts

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable success in language modelling due to scaling laws found in model size and the hidden dimension of the model’s text representation. Yet, we demonstrate that compressed representations of text can yield better performance in LLM-based regression tasks

In recent fast-paced financial markets, investors constantly seek ways to gain an edge and make informed decisions. Although achieving perfect accuracy in stock price predictions remains elusive, artificial intelligence (AI) advancements have significantly enhanced our ability to analyze historical

In the financial sector, a sophisticated financial time series simulator is essential for evaluating financial products and investment strategies. Traditional back-testing methods have mainly relied on historical data-driven approaches or mathematical model-driven approaches, such as various stochas

Accurate and robust stock trend forecasting has been a crucial and challenging task, as stock price changes are influenced by multiple factors. Graph neural network-based methods have recently achieved remarkable success in this domain by constructing stock relationship graphs that reflect internal

Accurate forecasting of the EUR/USD exchange rate is crucial for investors, businesses, and policymakers. This paper proposes a novel framework, IUS, that integrates unstructured textual data from news and analysis with structured data on exchange rates and financial indicators to enhance exchange r

Identification of market abuse is an extremely complicated activity that requires the analysis of large and complex datasets. We propose an unsupervised machine learning method for contextual anomaly detection, which allows to support market surveillance aimed at identifying potential insider tradin

Stress testing refers to the application of adverse financial or macroeconomic scenarios to a portfolio. For this purpose, financial or macroeconomic risk factors are linked with asset returns, typically via a factor model. We expand the range of risk factors by adapting dimension-reduction techniqu

Financial simulators play an important role in enhancing forecasting accuracy, managing risks, and fostering strategic financial decision-making. Despite the development of financial market simulation methodologies, existing frameworks often struggle with adapting to specialized simulation context.

Banks routinely use neural networks to make decisions. While these models offer higher accuracy, they are susceptible to adversarial attacks, a risk often overlooked in the context of event sequences, particularly sequences of financial transactions, as most works consider computer vision and NLP mo

In this study, we integrate sentiment analysis within a financial framework by leveraging FinBERT, a fine-tuned BERT model specialized for financial text, to construct an advanced deep learning model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Our objective is to forecast financial market trend

ChatGPT has demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, its potential for inferring dynamic network structures from temporal textual data, specifically financial news, remains an unexplored frontier. In this research, we introduce a novel fra

High-frequency trading requires fast data processing without information lags for precise stock price forecasting. This high-paced stock price forecasting is usually based on vectors that need to be treated as sequential and time-independent signals due to the time irregularities that are inherent i

Accurate prediction of agricultural crop prices is a crucial input for decision-making by various stakeholders in agriculture: farmers, consumers, retailers, wholesalers, and the Government. These decisions have significant implications including, most importantly, the economic well-being of the far

We introduce OFTER, a time series forecasting pipeline tailored for mid-sized multivariate time series. OFTER utilizes the non-parametric models of k-nearest neighbors and Generalized Regression Neural Networks, integrated with a dimensionality reduction component. To circumvent the curse of dimensi

This paper explores the novel deep learning Transformers architectures for high-frequency Bitcoin-USDT log-return forecasting and compares them to the traditional Long Short-Term Memory models. A hybrid Transformer model, called \textbf{HFformer}, is then introduced for time series forecasting which

In the practical business of asset management by investment trusts and the like, the general practice is to manage over the medium to long term owing to the burden of operations and increase in transaction costs with the increase in turnover ratio. However, when machine learning is used to construct

Market prediction plays a major role in supporting financial decisions. An emerging approach in this domain is to use graphical modeling and analysis to for prediction of next market index fluctuations. One important question in this domain is how to construct an appropriate graphical model of the d

This paper investigates how similarity in the informational representation of market states among Artificial Intelligence (AI) trading agents can generate systemic instability in financial markets. We construct a structural multi-agent market model calibrated using high-frequency microstructural mom

We study continuous-time portfolio choice in diffusion markets with parameter $θ\in Θ$ and uncertainty law $q(dθ)$. Nature draws latent $θ\sim q$ at time 0; the investor cannot observe it and must deploy a single $θ$-blind feedback policy maximizing an ex-ante CRRA objective averaged over diffusion

We introduce M2VN: Multi-Modal Volatility Network, a novel deep learning-based framework for financial volatility forecasting that unifies time series features with unstructured news data. M2VN leverages the representational power of deep neural networks to address two key challenges in this domain:

Survival modeling predicts the time until an event occurs and is widely used in risk analysis; for example, it’s used in medicine to predict the survival of a patient based on censored data. There is a need for large-scale, realistic, and freely available datasets for benchmarking artificial intelli

This paper introduces the Hype Index as a novel metric to quantify media attention toward large-cap equities, leveraging advances in Natural Language Processing (NLP) for extracting predictive signals from financial news. Using the S&P 100 as the focus universe, we first construct a News Count-Based

We introduce the deep multi-FBSDE method for robust approximation of coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs), focusing on cases where the deep BSDE method of Han, Jentzen, and E (2018) fails to converge. To overcome the convergence issues, we consider a family of FBSDEs t

In financial trading, return prediction is one of the foundation for a successful trading system. By the fast development of the deep learning in various areas such as graphical processing, natural language, it has also demonstrate significant edge in handling with financial data. While the success

This paper introduces a novel approach to stock data analysis by employing a Hierarchical Graph Neural Network (HGNN) model that captures multi-level information and relational structures in the stock market. The HGNN model integrates stock relationship data and hierarchical attributes to predict st

This study explores the use of Transformer-based models to predict both covariance and semi-covariance matrices for ETF portfolio optimization. Traditional portfolio optimization techniques often rely on static covariance estimates or impose strict model assumptions, which may fail to capture the dy

In stochastic multi-factor commodity models, it is often the case that futures prices are explained by two latent state variables which represent the short and long term stochastic factors. In this work, we develop the family of stochastic models using polynomial diffusion to obtain the unobservable

This study explores the prediction of high-frequency price changes using deep learning models. Although state-of-the-art methods perform well, their complexity impedes the understanding of successful predictions. We found that an inadequately defined target price process may render predictions meani

The paper presents a Bayesian framework for the calibration of financial models using neural stochastic differential equations (neural SDEs), for which we also formulate a global universal approximation theorem based on Barron-type estimates. The method is based on the specification of a prior distr

The recent advancement of deep learning architectures, neural networks, and the combination of abundant financial data and powerful computers are transforming finance, leading us to develop an advanced method for predicting future stock prices. However, the accessibility of investment and trading at

Neural architecture search (NAS) emerged as a way to automatically optimize neural networks for a specific task and dataset. Despite an abundance of research on NAS for images and natural language applications, similar studies for time series data are lacking. Among NAS search spaces, chain-structur

The published MLP-based DRL in finance has difficulties in learning the dynamics of the environment when the action scale increases. If the buying and selling increase to one thousand shares, the MLP agent will not be able to effectively adapt to the environment. To address this, we designed a CNN a

I study the price dynamics of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and propose a deep learning framework for dynamic valuation of NFTs. I use data from the Ethereum blockchain and OpenSea to train a deep learning model on historical trades, market trends, and traits/rarity features of Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT

In this paper, we propose a machine learning algorithm for time-inconsistent portfolio optimization. The proposed algorithm builds upon neural network based trading schemes, in which the asset allocation at each time point is determined by a a neural network. The loss function is given by an empiric

Introduced in the late 90s, the passport option gives its holder the right to trade in a market and receive any positive gain in the resulting traded account at maturity. Pricing the option amounts to solving a stochastic control problem that for $d>1$ risky assets remains an open problem. Even in a

Active investing aims to construct a portfolio of assets that are believed to be relatively profitable in the markets, with one popular method being to construct a portfolio via factor-based strategies. In recent years, there have been increasing efforts to apply deep learning to pursue “deep factor

Stock trend analysis has been an influential time-series prediction topic due to its lucrative and inherently chaotic nature. Many models looking to accurately predict the trend of stocks have been based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). However, due to the limitations of RNNs, such as gradient v

Geographic context is often consider relevant to motor insurance risk, yet public actuarial datasets provide limited location identifiers, constraining how this information can be incorporated and evaluated in claim-frequency models. This study examines how geographic information from alternative da

This research addresses accurate option pricing by employing models beyond the traditional Black-Scholes framework. While Black-Scholes provides a closed-form solution, it is limited by assumptions of constant volatility, no dividends, and continuous price movements. To overcome these limitations, w

This paper investigates whether short-term market overreactions can be systematically predicted and monetized as momentum signals using high-frequency emotional information and modern machine learning methods. Focusing on Apple Inc. (AAPL), we construct a comprehensive intraday dataset that combines

We study same-source multi-view learning and adversarial robustness for next-day direction prediction using two deterministic, window-aligned image views derived from the same time series: an OHLCV-rendered chart (ohlcv) and a technical-indicator matrix (indic). To control label ambiguity from near-

We propose the Compound BSDE method, a fully forward, deep-learning-based approach for solving a broad class of problems in financial mathematics, including optimal stopping. The method is based on a reformulation of option pricing problems in terms of a system of backward stochastic differential eq

Financial time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, variable interdependencies and limited data availability, particularly for tasks involving low-frequency data, newly listed instruments, or emerging market assets. Time Se

Making consistently profitable financial decisions in a continuously evolving and volatile stock market has always been a difficult task. Professionals from different disciplines have developed foundational theories to anticipate price movement and evaluate securities such as the famed Capital Asset

The advent of artificial intelligence has significantly enhanced credit scoring technologies. Despite the remarkable efficacy of advanced deep learning models, mainstream adoption continues to favor tree-structured models due to their robust predictive performance on tabular data. Although pretraine

Recent advances in deep learning and large language models (LLMs) have facilitated the deployment of the mixture-of-experts (MoE) mechanism in the stock investment domain. While these models have demonstrated promising trading performance, they are often unimodal, neglecting the wealth of informatio

Stock market forecasting has been a topic of extensive research, aiming to provide investors with optimal stock recommendations for higher returns. In recent years, this field has gained even more attention due to the widespread adoption of deep learning models. While these models have achieved impr

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have opened new pathways for many domains. However, the full potential of LLMs in financial investments remains largely untapped. There are two main challenges for typical deep learning-based methods for quantitative finance. First, they struggle t

Financial market predictions utilize historical data to anticipate future stock prices and market trends. Traditionally, these predictions have focused on the statistical analysis of quantitative factors, such as stock prices, trading volumes, inflation rates, and changes in industrial production. R

A framework to learn a multi-modal distribution is proposed, denoted as the Conditional Quantum Generative Adversarial Network (C-qGAN). The neural network structure is strictly within a quantum circuit and, as a consequence, is shown to represent a more efficient state preparation procedure than cu

This article explores the optimisation of trading strategies in Constant Function Market Makers (CFMMs) and centralised exchanges. We develop a model that accounts for the interaction between these two markets, estimating the conditional dependence between variables using the concept of conditional

We consider two data-driven approaches to hedging, Reinforcement Learning and Deep Trajectory-based Stochastic Optimal Control, under a stepwise mean-variance objective. We compare their performance for a European call option in the presence of transaction costs under discrete trading schedules. We

This paper studies the pricing problem in which the underlying asset follows a non-Markovian stochastic volatility model. Classical partial differential equation methods face significant challenges in this context, as the option prices depend not only on the current state, but also on the entire his

Quantum generative adversarial networks (QGANs) have been investigated as a method for generating synthetic data with the goal of augmenting training data sets for neural networks. This is especially relevant for financial time series, since we only ever observe one realization of the process, namel

We introduce a novel neural-network-based approach to learning the generating function $G(\cdot)$ of a functionally generated portfolio (FGP) from synthetic or real market data. In the neural network setting, the generating function is represented as $G_θ(\cdot)$, where $θ$ is an iterable neural net

Drawdown risk, an important metric in financial risk management, poses significant computational challenges due to its highly path-dependent nature. This paper proposes a unified framework for computing five important drawdown quantities introduced in Landriault et al. (2015) and Zhang (2015) under

A new deep-learning neural network architecture based on high-order weak approximation algorithms for stochastic differential equations (SDEs) is proposed. The architecture enables the efficient learning of martingales by deep learning models. The behaviour of deep neural networks based on this arch

Extracting specific items from 10-K reports is challenging due to variations in document formats and item presentation. To improve over traditional rule-based approaches, this study introduces and compares two advanced item segmentation methods: (1) GPT4ItemSeg, using a novel line-ID-based prompting

We study operator learning in the context of linear propagator models for optimal order execution problems with transient price impact à la Bouchaud et al. (2004) and Gatheral (2010). Transient price impact persists and decays over time according to some propagator kernel. Specifically, we propose t

This work aims to implement Long Short-Term Memory mixture density networks (LSTM-MDNs) for Value-at-Risk forecasting and compare their performance with established models (historical simulation, CMM, and GARCH) using a defined backtesting procedure. The focus was on the neural network’s ability to

The residuals in factor models prevalent in asset pricing presents opportunities to exploit the mis-pricing from unexplained cross-sectional variation for arbitrage. We performed a replication of the methodology of Guijarro-Ordonez et al. (2019) (G-P-Z) on Deep Learning Statistical Arbitrage (DLSA),

This paper investigates the application of Feature-Enriched Generative Adversarial Networks (FE-GAN) in financial risk management, with a focus on improving the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). FE-GAN enhances existing GANs architectures by incorporating an additional i

Bitcoin, launched in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto, established a new digital economy where value can be stored and transferred in a fully decentralized manner - alleviating the need for a central authority. This paper introduces a large scale dataset in the form of a transactions graph representing tran

We introduce a novel Dynamic Graph Neural Network (DGNN) architecture for solving conditional $m$-steps ahead forecasting problems in temporal financial networks. The proposed DGNN is validated on simulated data from a temporal financial network model capturing stylized features of Interest Rate Swa

Despite its practical significance, generating realistic synthetic financial time series is challenging due to statistical properties known as stylized facts, such as fat tails, volatility clustering, and seasonality patterns. Various generative models, including generative adversarial networks (GAN

We develop a deep reinforcement learning (RL) framework for an optimal market-making (MM) trading problem, specifically focusing on price processes with semi-Markov and Hawkes Jump-Diffusion dynamics. We begin by discussing the basics of RL and the deep RL framework used, where we deployed the state

Predicting the stock market is a big challenge for the machine learning world. It is known how difficult it is to have accurate and consistent predictions with ML models. Some architectures are able to capture the movement of stocks but almost never are able to be launched to the production world. W

Mutual funds aim to generate returns above market averages. While predicting their future portfolio allocations can bring economic advantages, the task remains challenging and largely unexplored. To fill that gap, this work frames mutual fund portfolio prediction as a Next Novel Basket Recommendatio

It is widely acknowledged that extracting market sentiments from news data benefits market predictions. However, existing methods of using financial sentiments remain simplistic, relying on equal-weight and static aggregation to manage sentiments from multiple news items. This leads to a critical is

We consider an insurance company which faces financial risk in the form of insurance claims and market-dependent surplus fluctuations. The company aims to simultaneously control its terminal wealth (e.g. at the end of an accounting period) and the ruin probability in a finite time interval by purcha

This paper explores the application of Machine Learning techniques for pricing high-dimensional options within the framework of the Uncertain Volatility Model (UVM). The UVM is a robust framework that accounts for the inherent unpredictability of market volatility by setting upper and lower bounds o

This paper explores using a deep learning Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model for accurate stock price prediction and its implications for portfolio design. Despite the efficient market hypothesis suggesting that predicting stock prices is impossible, recent research has shown the potential of advan

In the distributed systems landscape, Blockchain has catalyzed the rise of cryptocurrencies, merging enhanced security and decentralization with significant investment opportunities. Despite their potential, current research on cryptocurrency trend forecasting often falls short by simplistically mer

In this work, we propose an approach to generalize denoising diffusion probabilistic models for stock market predictions and portfolio management. Present works have demonstrated the efficacy of modeling interstock relations for market time-series forecasting and utilized Graph-based learning models

Portfolio management issues have been extensively studied in the field of artificial intelligence in recent years, but existing deep learning-based quantitative trading methods have some areas where they could be improved. First of all, the prediction mode of stocks is singular; often, only one trad

The increasing use of stochastic models for describing complex phenomena warrants surrogate models that capture the reference model characteristics at a fraction of the computational cost, foregoing potentially expensive Monte Carlo simulation. The predominant approach of fitting a large neural netw

This paper investigates the issue of an adequate loss function in the optimization of machine learning models used in the forecasting of financial time series for the purpose of algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) construction. We propose the Mean Absolute Directional Loss (MADL) function, solvi

In the modern financial industry system, the structure of products has become more and more complex, and the bottleneck constraint of classical computing power has already restricted the development of the financial industry. Here, we present a photonic chip that implements the unary approach to Eur

Financial risk prediction plays a crucial role in the financial sector. Machine learning methods have been widely applied for automatically detecting potential risks and thus saving the cost of labor. However, the development in this field is lagging behind in recent years by the following two facts