Time-series econometrics is the oldest and largest method family in the archive: regression on lagged information, volatility models from GARCH to HAR-RV, cointegration and error-correction for pairs and spreads, Markov-switching and state-space models for regimes, and the forecast-comparison machinery that decides whether any of it beats a naive benchmark. Most empirical finance papers use at least one of these tools, so the label covers everything from a one-table event study to a full multivariate realized-covariance model.
What to check when reading. The three failure modes are old and well documented: in-sample fitting dressed as forecasting (no true out-of-sample window, or a window chosen after the fact), stationarity assumptions that fail across regimes, and significance claims that ignore how many specifications were tried. A credible paper names its benchmark (random walk, HAR-RV, equal-weight), reports a loss function that matches the decision (QLIKE for volatility, not MSE on levels), and shows the result survives a sub-period split.
Statistical analysis of high-frequency stock market order transaction data is conducted to understand order transition dynamics. We employ a first-order time-homogeneous discrete-time Markov chain model to the sequence of orders of stocks belonging to six different sectors during the USA-China trade
Economic periods and financial crises have highlighted the importance of evaluating financial markets to investors and researchers in recent decades.
Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities
In this work we show how generative tools, which were successfully applied to limit order book data, can be utilized for the task of imitating trading agents. To this end, we propose a modified generative architecture based on the state-space model, and apply it to limit order book data with identif
This work focuses on financial risks from a probabilistic point of view. The value of a firm is described as a geometric Brownian motion and default emerges as a first passage time event. On the technical side, the critical threshold that the value process has to cross to trigger the default is assu
We consider a stochastic volatility model where the price evolution depend on the exponential of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. After a brief revision of the related theory the entropy-minimal equivalent martingale measure. is calculated.
Financial market volatility is a crucial factor for investment planning, option pricing, and financial market regulation, and technology is widely recognized as a key driver of economic growth. In this project, we investigate the co-movement of technology and non-technology sectors over the last two
The money market and the capital market of the Indian financial markets have a symbiotic relationship in the development of the Indian economy. The nature and the characteristics of the markets differ to a large extent as the money market ensures liquidity in the system through the monetary policy b
This article gives a probabilistic overview of the widely used method of default probability estimation proposed by K. Pluto and D. Tasche. There are listed detailed assumptions and derivation of the inequality where the probability of default is involved under the influence of systematic factor. Th
This paper develops a theoretical mesoscopic model of the limit order book driven by multivariate Hawkes processes, designed to capture temporal self-excitation and the spatial propagation of order flow across price levels. In contrast to classical zero-intelligence or Poisson based queueing models,
This exploratory study examines which investing characteristics determine success in an equity market. Based on data from 403 respondents, exploratory factor analysis results in 13 factors: middle/long time horizon, qualitative analyst, open-minded/disciplined, organized, emotional stability, naïve,
Calculating true volatility is an essential task for option pricing and risk management. However, it is made difficult by market microstructure noise. Particle filtering has been proposed to solve this problem as it favorable statistical properties, but relies on assumptions about underlying market
Chebyshev polynomials of the first kind have long been used to approximate experimental data in solving various technical problems. Within the framework of this study, the dynamics of shares of eight Czech enterprises was analyzed by the Chebyshev polynomial decomposition: CEZ A.S. (CEZP), Colt CZ G
A significant number of the non-financial firms listed at the Nairobi Securities Exchange have been experiencing declining financial performance and financial growth, which deter investors from investing in such firms. Hence, the study aimed at establishing the effect of financial structure on the f
The energy transition is expected to significantly increase the share of renewable energy sources whose production is intermittent in the electricity mix. Apart from key benefits, this development has the major drawback of generating a mismatch between power supply and demand. The innovative dynamic
The Coherent Multiplex is formalized and validated as a scalable, real-time system for identifying, analyzing, and visualizing coherence among multiple time series. Its architecture comprises a fast spectral similarity layer based on cosine similarity metrics of Fourier-transformed signals, and a sp
Stock market is often important as it represents the ownership claims on businesses. Without sufficient stocks, a company cannot perform well in finance. Predicting a stock market performance of a company is nearly hard because every time the prices of a company stock keeps changing and not constant
Accurately predicting the prices of financial time series is essential and challenging for the financial sector. Owing to recent advancements in deep learning techniques, deep learning models are gradually replacing traditional statistical and machine learning models as the first choice for price fo
Stock market investment have been an ideal form of investment for many years. Investing capitals smartly in stock market yields high profit returns. But there are many companies available in a market. Currently there are more than $345$ active companies who have stocks in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE).
In his famous paper, Markowitz (1952) derived the dependence of portfolio random returns on the random returns of its securities. This result allowed Markowitz to obtain his famous expression for portfolio variance. We show that Markowitz’s equation for portfolio random returns and the expression fo
In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability of Bitcoin’s price movements, drawing a parallel with traditi
This study explores the application of Hawkes processes to model high-frequency data in the context of limit order books. Two distinct Hawkes-based models are proposed and analyzed: one utilizing exponential kernels and the other employing power-law kernels. These models are implemented within a biv
I propose a functional on the space of spectral risk measures that quantifies their degree of risk aversion''. This quantification formalizes the idea that some risk measures are more risk-averse’’ than others. I construct the functional using two axioms: a normalization on the space of CVaRs an
Predicting a fast and accurate model for stock price forecasting is been a challenging task and this is an active area of research where it is yet to be found which is the best way to forecast the stock price. Machine learning, deep learning and statistical analysis techniques are used here to get t
Bitcoin as a cryptocurrency has been one of the most important digital coins and the first decentralized digital currency. Deep neural networks, on the other hand, has shown promising results recently; however, we require huge amount of high-quality data to leverage their power. There are some techn
Investors and stock market analysts face major challenges in predicting stock returns and making wise investment decisions. The predictability of equity stock returns can boost investor confidence, but it remains a difficult task. To address this issue, a study was conducted using a Long Short-term
The use of Fermat-Torricelli points can be an effective mathematical tool for analyzing numerical series that have a large variance, a pronounced nonlinear trend, or do not have a normal distribution of a random variable. Linear dependencies are very rare in nature. Smoothing numerical series by con
In this study, we introduce a Gordon’s dividend discount model, based on Vector Autoregressive Process (VAR). We provide two Propositions, which are related to generic Gordon growth model and Gordon growth model, which is based on the VAR process.
This paper proposes a simple and parsimonious discrete-time simulation model to describe the endogenous formation and periodic collapse of financial bubbles. While existing literature has extensively explored the statistical properties of locally explosive bubble dynamics, capturing the micro-level
There is growing recognition among financial institutions, financial regulators and policy makers of the importance of addressing nature-related risks and opportunities. Evaluating and assessing nature-related risks for financial institutions is challenging due to the large volume of heterogeneous d
Causal Inference plays an significant role in explaining the decisions taken by statistical models and artificial intelligence models. Of late, this field started attracting the attention of researchers and practitioners alike. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of 37 papers published during
In quantum mechanics and finance, numeraire invariance - the unobservability of absolute phase or price scale - fits with a projective and curved state space. This projective geometry has a measurable signature. For spin-one and higher spin systems, the Taylor expansion of directed distance contains
The advent of foundation models (FMs), large-scale pre-trained models with strong generalization capabilities, has opened new frontiers for financial engineering. While general-purpose FMs such as GPT-4 and Gemini have demonstrated promising performance in tasks ranging from financial report summari
The stock market has been established since the 13th century, but in the current epoch of time, it is substantially more practicable to anticipate the stock market than it was at any other point in time due to the tools and data that are available for both traditional and algorithmic trading. There
Post Modigliani and Miller (1958), the concept of usage of arbitrage created a permanent mark on the discourses of financial framework. The arbitrage process is largely based on information dissemination amongst the stakeholders operating in the financial market. The advent of the efficient market H
The importance of predicting stock market prices cannot be overstated. It is a pivotal task for investors and financial institutions as it enables them to make informed investment decisions, manage risks, and ensure the stability of the financial system. Accurate stock market predictions can help in
This paper is a work in progress. We are looking for collaborators to provide us financial datasets in Equity/Futures market to conduct more bench-marking studies. The authors have papers employing similar methods applied on the Numerai dataset, which is freely available but obfuscated. We apply dif
Shanghai Composite Index prediction has become a hot issue for many investors and academic researchers. Deep learning models are widely applied in multivariate time series forecasting, including recurrent neural networks (RNN), convolutional neural networks (CNN), and transformers. Specifically, the
Tourism demand forecasting is methodologically mature, but it typically treats accommodation supply as fixed or exogenous. In platform-mediated short-term rentals, supply is elastic, decision-driven, and co-evolves with demand through pricing, information design, and interventions. I reframe the cor
Share market is one of the most important sectors of economic development of a country. Everyday almost all companies issue their shares and investors buy and sell shares of these companies. Generally investors want to buy shares of the companies whose market liquidity is comparatively greater. Mark
Machine learning is critical for innovation and efficiency in financial markets, offering predictive models and data-driven decision-making. However, challenges such as missing data, lack of transparency, untimely updates, insecurity, and incompatible data sources limit its effectiveness. Blockchain
In the realm of globalized financial markets, commercial banks are confronted with an escalating magnitude of credit risk, thereby imposing heightened requisites upon the security of bank assets and financial stability. This study harnesses advanced neural network techniques, notably the Backpropaga
The Behrens-Feichtinger model provides a deterministic picture for the co-evolution of sales of two firms, producing the same goods and competing in a common market. The model involves an active investment strategy such that the temporary investment of each of the two firms depends on its relative p
This paper aims to study the prediction of the bank stability index based on the Time Series Transformer model. The bank stability index is an important indicator to measure the health status and risk resistance of financial institutions. Traditional prediction methods are difficult to adapt to comp
Our study focuses on comparing the performance and resource requirements between different Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network architectures and an ANN specialized architecture for forex market prediction. We analyze the execution time of the models as well as the resources consumed, such a
The Proof of Efficient Liquidity (PoEL) protocol, designed for specialised Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus-based blockchains that incorporate intrinsic DeFi applications, aims to support sustainable liquidity bootstrapping and network security. This concept seeks to efficiently utilise budgeted staki
The clarion call for causal reduction in the study of capital markets is intensifying. However, in self-referencing and open systems such as capital markets, the idea of unidirectional causation (if applicable) may be limiting at best, and unstable or fallacious at worst. In this work, we critically
With the advent of fast-paced information dissemination and retrieval, it has become inherently important to resort to automated means of predicting stock market prices. In this paper, we propose Taureau, a framework that leverages Twitter sentiment analysis for predicting stock market movement. The
This study aimed to examine the correlation between the stock prices of two major Indonesian holding companies, MNC Group and Elang Mahkota Teknologi (Emtek) Group, and their respective subsidiaries as case studies. The data for the analysis were collected from 2013 to 2022, and Spearman correlation
Literature highlighted that financial time series data pose significant challenges for accurate stock price prediction, because these data are characterized by noise and susceptibility to news; traditional statistical methodologies made assumptions, such as linearity and normality, which are not sui
Computing cost of equity for private corporations and performing comparable company analysis (comps) for both public and private corporations is an integral but tedious and time-consuming task, with important applications spanning the finance world, from valuations to internal planning. Performing c
Machine learning and deep learning have become increasingly prevalent in financial prediction and forecasting tasks, offering advantages such as enhanced customer experience, democratising financial services, improving consumer protection, and enhancing risk management. However, these complex models
The concept of time mostly plays a subordinate role in finance and economics. The assumption is that time flows continuously and that time series data should be analyzed at regular, equidistant intervals. Nonetheless, already nearly 60 years ago, the concept of an event-based measure of time was fir
In the realm of cryptocurrency, the prediction of Bitcoin prices has garnered substantial attention due to its potential impact on financial markets and investment strategies. This paper propose a comparative study on hybrid machine learning algorithms and leverage on enhancing model interpretabilit
In a natural market environment, the price prediction model needs to be updated in real time according to the data obtained by the system to ensure the accuracy of the prediction. In order to improve the user experience of the system, the price prediction function needs to use the fastest training m
Electricity price forecasting has become a critical tool for decision-making in energy markets, particularly as the increasing penetration of renewable energy introduces greater volatility and uncertainty. Historically, research in this field has been dominated by point forecasting methods, which pr
Prediction markets have gained adoption as on-chain mechanisms for aggregating information, with platforms such as Polymarket demonstrating demand for stablecoin-denominated markets. However, denominating in non-interest-bearing stablecoins introduces inefficiencies: participants face opportunity co
Every financial crisis has caused a dual shock to the global economy. The shortage of market liquidity, such as default in debt and bonds, has led to the spread of bankruptcies, such as Lehman Brothers in 2008. Using the data for the ETFs of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average
This work builds upon the long-standing conjecture that linear diffusion models are inadequate for complex market dynamics. Specifically, it provides experimental validation for the author’s prior arguments that realistic market dynamics are governed by higher-order (cubic and higher) non-linearitie
This study employs the annual unbalanced panel data of 42 listed banks in China from 2006 to 2021, adopts the non-radial and non-oriented super-efficiency Data envelopment analysis (Super-SBM-UND-VRS based DEA) model considering NPL as undesired output. Our results show that the profitability super-
This work defines and studies one-dimensional convolution kernels that preserve nonnegativity. When the past dynamics of a process is integrated with a convolution kernel like in Stochastic Volterra Equations or in the jump intensity of Hawkes processes, this property allows to get the nonnegativity