Simulation & Agent-Based Models

Modern stochastic optimization pipelines increasingly rely on learned generative models to represent uncertainty, while downstream decisions are evaluated almost entirely through Monte Carlo scenarios. This shifts the operational object of uncertainty from an explicit probability law to the sampler

Despite the empirical success in modeling volatility of the rough Bergomi (rBergomi) model, it suffers from pricing and calibration difficulties stemming from its non-Markovian structure. To address this, we propose a comprehensive computational framework that enhances both simulation and calibratio

The Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) calculation is computationally intensive, relying on the market-consistent estimation of own funds. While Solvency II prioritizes the direct valuation method, it theoretically yields the same value as the indirect method. This paper evaluates their practical pe

This study develops an inverse portfolio optimization framework for recovering latent investor preferences including risk aversion, transaction cost sensitivity, and ESG orientation from observed portfolio allocations. Using controlled synthetic data, we assess the estimator’s statistical properties

This paper introduces a novel framework for analyzing systemic risk in financial markets through multi-scale network dynamics using Model Context Protocol (MCP) for agent communication. We develop an integrated approach that combines transfer entropy networks, agent-based modeling, and wavelet decom

While financial data presents one of the most challenging and interesting sequence modelling tasks due to high noise, heavy tails, and strategic interactions, progress in this area has been hindered by the lack of consensus on quantitative evaluation paradigms. To address this, we present LOB-Bench,

This paper addresses the challenges faced in large-volume trading, where executing substantial orders can result in significant market impact and slippage. To mitigate these effects, this study proposes a volatility-volume-based order slicing strategy that leverages Exponential Weighted Moving Avera

This paper considers the finite horizon portfolio rebalancing problem in terms of mean-variance optimization, where decisions are made based on current information on asset returns and transaction costs. The study’s novelty is that the transaction costs are integrated within the optimization problem

Deep generative models are becoming increasingly used as tools for financial analysis. However, it is unclear how these models will influence financial markets, especially when they infer financial value in a semi-autonomous way. In this work, we explore the interplay between deep generative models

The AI traders in financial markets have sparked significant interest in their effects on price formation mechanisms and market volatility, raising important questions for market stability and regulation. Despite this interest, a comprehensive model to quantitatively assess the specific impacts of A

Predicting startup success presents a formidable challenge due to the inherently volatile landscape of the entrepreneurial ecosystem. The advent of extensive databases like Crunchbase jointly with available open data enables the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence for more ac

The sharing of microdata, such as fund holdings and derivative instruments, by regulatory institutions presents a unique challenge due to strict data confidentiality and privacy regulations. These challenges often hinder the ability of both academics and practitioners to conduct collaborative resear

Due to major shifts in European energy supply, a structural change can be observed in Austrian electricity spot price data starting from the second quarter of the year 2021 onward. In this work we study the performance of two different factor models for the electricity spot price in three different

In this article we discuss the application of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework Heath et al. [26] to energy markets. The goal of the article is to give a detailed overview of the topic, focusing on practical aspects rather than on theory, which has been widely studied in literature. This work aims t

We propose a new approach to portfolio optimization that utilizes a unique combination of synthetic data generation and a CVaR-constraint. We formulate the portfolio optimization problem as an asset allocation problem in which each asset class is accessed through a passive (index) fund. The asset-cl

Multi-agent LLM systems fail in production at rates between 41% and 87%, mostly due to coordination defects rather than base-model capability. Existing responses split between cataloguing failure modes empirically and shipping declarative orchestration frameworks as engineering tools; neither delive

Trend-following strategies underpin many systematic trading approaches yet struggle under nonstationary and nonlinear market regimes. We propose an LSTM-based framework to forecast next-day trend differences ($Δ_t$) for the top 30 S&P 500 equities, validated across market cycles (2005–2025). Key c

Multivariate shortfall risk measures provide a principled framework for quantifying systemic risk and determining capital allocations prior to aggregation in interconnected financial systems. Despite their well established theoretical properties, the numerical estimation of multivariate shortfall ri

In April 2020, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange temporarily switched the pricing formula for West Texas Intermediate oil market options from the Black model to the Bachelier model. In this context, we introduce an additive Bachelier model that provides a simple closed-form solution and a good descrip

This study is motivated by empirical observations of periodic fluctuations in interest rates, notably long-term economic cycles spanning decades, which the conventional Hull-White short-rate model fails to adequately capture. To address this limitation, we propose an extension that incorporates a si

This report presents a comprehensive evaluation of three Value-at-Risk (VaR) modeling approaches: Historical Simulation (HS), GARCH with Normal approximation (GARCH-N), and GARCH with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS), using both in-sample and multi-day forecasting frameworks. We compute daily 5

This paper presents a realistic simulated stock market where large language models (LLMs) act as heterogeneous competing trading agents. The open-source framework incorporates a persistent order book with market and limit orders, partial fills, dividends, and equilibrium clearing alongside agents wi

Market simulator tries to create high-quality synthetic financial data that mimics real-world market dynamics, which is crucial for model development and robust assessment. Despite continuous advancements in simulation methodologies, market fluctuations vary in terms of scale and sources, but existi

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in natural language tasks, yet their performance in dynamic, real-world financial environments remains underexplored. Existing approaches are limited to historical backtesting, where trading actions cannot influence market prices

This paper presents a comprehensive study on stock price prediction, leveragingadvanced machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques to improve financial forecasting accuracy. The research evaluates the performance of various recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures, including Long Sh

Financial regulators such as central banks collect vast amounts of data, but access to the resulting fine-grained banking microdata is severely restricted by banking secrecy laws. Recent developments have resulted in mechanisms that generate faithful synthetic data, but current evaluation frameworks

This study investigates the application of machine learning algorithms, particularly in the context of pricing American options using Monte Carlo simulations. Traditional models, such as the Black-Scholes-Merton framework, often fail to adequately address the complexities of American options, which

Recent developments in condition-based maintenance (CBM) have helped make it a promising approach to maintenance cost avoidance in engineering systems. By performing maintenance based on conditions of the component with regards to failure or time, there is potential to avoid the large costs of syste

Derivative hedging and pricing are important and continuously studied topics in financial markets. Recently, deep hedging has been proposed as a promising approach that uses deep learning to approximate the optimal hedging strategy and can handle incomplete markets. However, deep hedging usually req

We propose a new deep learning approach for the quantification of name concentration risk in loan portfolios. Our approach is tailored for small portfolios and allows for both an actuarial as well as a mark-to-market definition of loss. The training of our neural network relies on Monte Carlo simula

This paper presents an in-depth analysis of stylized facts in the context of futures on German bonds. The study examines four futures contracts on German bonds: Schatz, Bobl, Bund and Buxl, using tick-by-tick limit order book datasets. It uncovers a range of stylized facts and empirical observations

Monte Carlo simulation is widely used to numerically solve stochastic differential equations. Although the method is flexible and easy to implement, it may be slow to converge. Moreover, an inaccurate solution will result when using large time steps. The Seven League scheme, a deep learning-based nu

Risk budgeting is a portfolio strategy where each asset contributes a prespecified amount to the aggregate risk of the portfolio. In this work, we propose an efficient numerical framework that uses only simulations of returns for estimating risk budgeting portfolios. Besides a general cutting planes

The Graph Protocol indexes historical blockchain transaction data and makes it available for querying. As the protocol is decentralized, there are many independent Indexers that index and compete with each other for serving queries to the Consumers. One dimension along which Indexers compete is pric

We study whether model diversity survives selection into trading. In synthetic markets with a fixed mixture of three language-model families, news presentation changes their representation among submitted orders. At the announcement round, Qwen’s share of submitted orders shifts by 48 percentage poi

Using the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and Bitcoin daily data, we document that sentiment extremity predicts excess uncertainty beyond realized volatility. Extreme fear and extreme greed regimes exhibit significantly higher spreads than neutral periods – a phenomenon we term the “extremity premium.” E

For long term investments, model portfolios are defined at the level of indexes, a setup known as Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA). The possible outcomes at a scale of a few decades can be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations, resulting in a probability density for the possible portfolio values at th

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a Time-series Neural Causal Model VAE (TNCM-VAE) that combines v

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in agentic frameworks, in which prompts trigger complex tool-based analysis in pursuit of a goal. While these frameworks have shown promise across multiple domains including in finance, they typically lack a principled model-building step, relyi

We consider a Bayesian diffusion control problem of expected terminal utility maximization. The controller imposes a prior distribution on the unknown drift of an underlying diffusion. The Bayesian optimal control, tracking the posterior distribution of the unknown drift, can be characterized explic

Financial markets pose fundamental challenges for asset return prediction due to their high dimensionality, non-stationarity, and persistent volatility. Despite advances in large language models and multi-agent systems, current quantitative research pipelines suffer from limited automation, weak int

This dissertation investigates the ability of the Ising model to replicate statistical characteristics, or stylized facts, commonly observed in financial assets. The study specifically examines in the S&P500 index the following features: volatility clustering, negative skewness, heavy tails, the abs

Climate change is a major threat to the future of humanity, and its impacts are being intensified by excess man-made greenhouse gas emissions. One method governments can employ to control these emissions is to provide firms with emission limits and penalize any excess emissions above the limit. Exce

Dynamic hedging is a financial strategy that consists in periodically transacting one or multiple financial assets to offset the risk associated with a correlated liability. Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithms have been used to find optimal solutions to dynamic hedging problems by framing t

An agent-based modelling methodology for the joint price evolution of two stocks is put forward. The method models future multidimensional price trajectories reflecting how a class of agents rebalance their portfolios in an operational way by reacting to how stocks’ charts unfold. Prices are express

The high-order complexity of human behaviour is likely the root cause of extreme difficulty in financial market projections. We consider that behavioural simulation can unveil systemic dynamics to support analysis. Simulating diverse human groups must account for the behavioural heterogeneity, espec

I introduce an agent-based model of a Perpetual Futures market with heterogeneous agents trading via a central limit order book. Perpetual Futures (henceforth Perps) are financial derivatives introduced by the economist Robert Shiller, designed to peg their price to that of the underlying Spot marke

We present a novel three-stage framework leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs) within a risk-aware multi-agent system for automate strategy finding in quantitative finance. Our approach addresses the brittleness of traditional deep learning models in financial applications by: employing prompt-eng

The use of reinforcement learning algorithms in financial trading is becoming increasingly prevalent. However, the autonomous nature of these algorithms can lead to unexpected outcomes that deviate from traditional game-theoretical predictions and may even destabilize markets. In this study, we exam

Empirical evidence shows stock returns are often heavy-tailed rather than normally distributed. The $κ$-generalised distribution, originated in the context of statistical physics by Kaniadakis, is characterised by the $κ$-exponential function that is asymptotically exponential for small values and a

The aim of this paper is to discuss an estimation and a simulation method in the \textsf{“R”} package YUIMA for a linear regression model driven by a Student-$t$ Lévy process with constant scale and arbitrary degrees of freedom. This process finds applications in several fields, for example finance,

We extend the opinion formation approach to probe the world influence of economical organizations. Our opinion formation model mimics a battle between currencies within the international trade network. Based on the United Nations Comtrade database, we construct the world trade network for the years

The ability to construct a realistic simulator of financial exchanges, including reproducing the dynamics of the limit order book, can give insight into many counterfactual scenarios, such as a flash crash, a margin call, or changes in macroeconomic outlook. In recent years, agent-based models have

In this work, we present a novel machine learning approach for pricing high-dimensional American options based on the modified Gaussian process regression (GPR). We incorporate deep kernel learning and sparse variational Gaussian processes to address the challenges traditionally associated with GPR.

In this paper, we propose a multidimensional statistical model of intraday electricity prices at the scale of the trading session, which allows all products to be simulated simultaneously. This model, based on Poisson measures and inspired by the Common Shock Poisson Model, reproduces the Samuelson

We evaluate benchmark deep reinforcement learning algorithms on the task of portfolio optimisation using simulated data. The simulator to generate the data is based on correlated geometric Brownian motion with the Bertsimas-Lo market impact model. Using the Kelly criterion (log utility) as the objec

Financial portfolio construction problems are often formulated as quadratic and discrete (combinatorial) optimization that belong to the nondeterministic polynomial time (NP)-hard class in computational complexity theory. Ising machines are hardware devices that work in quantum-mechanical/quantum-in

Cross-series dependencies are crucial in obtaining accurate forecasts when forecasting a multivariate time series. Simultaneous Graphical Dynamic Linear Models (SGDLMs) are Bayesian models that elegantly capture cross-series dependencies. This study forecasts returns of a 40-dimensional time series

In a financial exchange, market impact is a measure of the price change of an asset following a transaction. This is an important element of market microstructure, which determines the behaviour of the market following a trade. In this paper, we first provide a discussion on the market impact observ

The valuation of over-the-counter derivatives is subject to a series of valuation adjustments known as xVA, which pose additional risks for financial institutions. Associated risk measures, such as the value-at-risk of an underlying valuation adjustment, play an important role in managing these risk

We propose Generative Adversarial Regression (GAR), a framework for learning conditional risk scenarios through generators aligned with downstream risk objectives. GAR builds on a regression characterization of conditional risk for elicitable functionals, including quantiles, expectiles, and jointly

Portfolio optimization under strict cardinality constraints is a combinatorial challenge that defies classical convex optimization techniques, particularly in the context of “Direct Indexing” and ESG-constrained mandates. In the Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum (NISQ) era, the Quantum Approximate Op

Micro-structural models of contagion and systemic risk emphasize that shock propagation is inherently multi-channel, spanning counterparty exposures, short-term funding and roll-over risk, securities cross-holdings, and common-asset (fire-sale) spillovers. Empirical implementations, however, often r

In this paper, we adopt the least squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) method to price time-capped American options. The aforementioned cap can be an independent random variable or dependent on asset price at random time. We allow various time caps. In particular, we give an algorithm for pricing the American

On the way towards carbon neutrality, climate stress testing provides estimates for the physical and transition risks that climate change poses to the economy and the financial system. Missing firm-level CO2 emissions data severely impedes the assessment of transition risks originating from carbon p

This paper proposes analytic forms of portfolio CoVaR and CoCVaR on the normal tempered stable market model. Since CoCVaR captures the relative risk of the portfolio with respect to a benchmark return, we apply it to the relative portfolio optimization. Moreover, we derive analytic forms for the mar

In this paper, we present an extended exploratory continuous-time mean-variance framework for portfolio management. Our strategy involves a new clustering method based on simulated annealing, which allows for more practical asset selection. Additionally, we consider past wealth evolution when constr

The classic semi-Markov disability model is expanded with individual and collective health claims to improve its explanatory and predictive power – in particular in the context of group experience rating. The inclusion of collective health claims leads to a computationally challenging many-body pro

We present ABIDES-MARL, a framework that combines a new multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) methodology with a new realistic limit-order-book (LOB) simulation system to study equilibrium behavior in complex financial market games. The system extends ABIDES-Gym by decoupling state collection fr

Agent-based modelling (ABM) approaches for high-frequency financial markets are difficult to calibrate and validate, partly due to the large parameter space created by defining fixed agent policies. Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) enables more realistic agent behaviour and reduces the numb

The recent application of deep learning models to financial trading has heightened the need for high fidelity financial time series data. This synthetic data can be used to supplement historical data to train large trading models. The state-of-the-art models for the generative application often rely

Execution algorithms are vital to modern trading, they enable market participants to execute large orders while minimising market impact and transaction costs. As these algorithms grow more sophisticated, optimising them becomes increasingly challenging. In this work, we present a reinforcement lear

We investigate the mechanisms behind the power-law distribution of stock returns using artificial market simulations. While traditional financial theory assumes Gaussian price fluctuations, empirical studies consistently show that the tails of return distributions follow a power law. Previous resear

The rapid development of sophisticated machine learning methods, together with the increased availability of financial data, has the potential to transform financial research, but also poses a challenge in terms of validation and interpretation. A good case study is the task of classifying financial

In this paper, we study the optimal investment problem considering the herd behaviour between two agents, including one leading expert and one following agent whose decisions are influenced by those of the leading expert. In the objective functional of the optimal investment problem, we introduce th

In this study, we developed a computational framework for simulating large-scale agent-based financial markets. Our platform supports trading multiple simultaneous assets and leverages distributed computing to scale the number and complexity of simulated agents. Heterogeneous agents make decisions i

The Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model is a representative jump-type stochastic volatility model. Still, no method exists to compute option prices numerically for the non-martingale case with infinite active jumps. We develop two simulation methods for such a case under change of measure and condu

An actively managed portfolio almost never beats the market in the long term. Thus, many investors often resort to passively managed portfolios whose aim is to follow a certain financial index. The task of building such passive portfolios aiming also to minimize the transaction costs is called Index

We present the first portfolio-level validation of MarketSenseAI, a deployed multi-agent LLM equity system. All signals are generated live at each observation date, eliminating look-ahead bias. The system routes four specialist agents (News, Fundamentals, Dynamics, and Macro) through a synthesis age

Using Malliavin calculus techniques, we obtain formulas for computing Greeks under different rough Volterra stochastic volatility models. Due to the fact that underlying prices are not always square integrable, we extend the classical integration by parts formula to integrable but not necessarily sq

The alignment of Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) for autonomous software engineering is constrained by evaluator epistemic uncertainty. Current paradigms, such as Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) and AI Feedback (RLAIF), frequently induce model sycophancy, while execution-based environmen

Agent-based models provide a constructive approach to studying emergent dynamics in life-like systems composed of interacting, adaptive agents. Financial markets serve as a canonical example of such systems, where collective price dynamics arise from individual decision-making. In this modeling trad

This study strengthens the foundations of multi-venue market modeling by attempting an independent replication of Wah and Wellman’s 2016 model of latency arbitrage in a fragmented market. We find that faithful replication is hindered by missing implementation details in the original paper and limite

Motivated by recent results on the dual formulation of optimal stopping problems, we investigate in this short paper how the knowledge of an approximating dual martingale can improve the efficiency of primal methods. In particular, we show on numerical examples that accurate approximations of a dual

Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimation at high confidence levels is inherently a rare-event problem and is particularly sensitive to tail behavior and model misspecification. This paper studies the performance of two simulation-based VaR estimation approaches, importance sampling and discrete moment matchin

Synthetic financial data provides a practical solution to the privacy, accessibility, and reproducibility challenges that often constrain empirical research in quantitative finance. This paper investigates the use of deep generative models, specifically Time-series Generative Adversarial Networks (T

We develop a transparent and fully auditable LLM-based pipeline for macro-financial stress testing, combining structured prompting with optional retrieval of country fundamentals and news. The system generates machine-readable macroeconomic scenarios for the G7, which cover GDP growth, inflation, an

Multi-strategy hedge funds face a fundamental organizational choice: should analysts generating trading strategies communicate, and if so, how? We investigate this using 5-agent LLM-based trading systems across 450 experiments spanning 21 months, comparing five organizational structures from isolate

This commentary translates the central ideas in Lead times in flux into a practice ready handbook in R. The original article measures change in the full distribution of booking lead times with a normalized L1 distance and tracks that divergence across months relative to year over year and to a fixed

The lifted Heston model is a stochastic volatility model emerging as a Markovian lift of the rough Heston model and the class of rough volatility processes. The model encodes the path dependency of volatility on a set of N square-root state processes driven by a common stochastic factor. While the s

In this paper, we propose an alternative valuation approach for CAT bonds where a pricing formula is learned by deep neural networks. Once trained, these networks can be used to price CAT bonds as a function of inputs that reflect both the current market conditions and the specific features of the c

The present study considers the rural pharmaceutical retail sector in India, where the arrival of organized retailers and e-retailers is testing the survival strategies of unorganized retailers. Grounded in a field investigation of the Indian pharmaceutical retail sector, this study integrates prima

This paper proposes a new algorithm – Trading Graph Neural Network (TGNN) that can structurally estimate the impact of asset features, dealer features and relationship features on asset prices in trading networks. It combines the strength of the traditional simulated method of moments (SMM) and rece

In this paper, we explore the pricing and hedging strategies for an innovative insurance product called the equity protection swap(EPS). Notably, we focus on the application of EPSs involving cross-currency reference portfolios, reflecting the realities of investor asset diversification across diffe

Climate change not only threatens agricultural producers but also strains related public agencies and financial institutions. These important food system actors include government entities tasked with insuring grower livelihoods and supporting response to continued global warming. We examine future

We present weak approximations schemes of any order for the Heston model that are obtained by using the method developed by Alfonsi and Bally (2021). This method consists in combining approximation schemes calculated on different random grids to increase the order of convergence. We apply this metho

Can AI Agents simulate real-world trading environments to investigate the impact of external factors on stock trading activities (e.g., macroeconomics, policy changes, company fundamentals, and global events)? These factors, which frequently influence trading behaviors, are critical elements in the

This paper presents a simulation approach to enhance the performance of heuristics for multi-project scheduling. Unlike other heuristics available in the literature that use only one priority criterion for resource allocation, this paper proposes a structured way to sequentially apply more than one

Limit order books are a fundamental and widespread market mechanism. This paper investigates the use of conditional generative models for order book simulation. For developing a trading agent, this approach has drawn recent attention as an alternative to traditional backtesting due to its ability to

During his state visit to China in April 2023, Brazilian President Lula proposed the creation of a trade currency supported by the BRICS countries. Using the United Nations Comtrade database, providing the frame of the world trade network associated to 194 UN countries during the decade 2010 - 2020,