Simulation & Agent-Based Models

This paper explores Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a model-free solution for a calibration algorithm of option pricing models. We construct ANNs to calibrate parameters for two well-known GARCH-type option pricing models: Duan’s GARCH and the classical tempered stable GARCH that significantly im

Quantitative markets are characterized by swift dynamics and abundant uncertainties, making the pursuit of profit-driven stock trading actions inherently challenging. Within this context, reinforcement learning (RL), which operates on a reward-centric mechanism for optimal control, has surfaced as a

We consider the dynamics and the interactions of multiple reinforcement learning optimal execution trading agents interacting with a reactive Agent-Based Model (ABM) of a financial market in event time. The model represents a market ecology with 3-trophic levels represented by: optimal execution lea

Local Stochastic Volatility (LSV) models have been used for pricing and hedging derivatives positions for over twenty years. An enormous body of literature covers analytical and numerical techniques for calibrating the model to market data. However, the literature misses a potent approach commonly u

We investigate whether the fee income from trades on the CFM is sufficient for the liquidity providers to hedge away the exposure to market risk. We first analyse this problem through the lens of continuous-time financial mathematics and derive an upper bound for not-arbitrage fee income that would

Recent technological developments have changed the fundamental ways stock markets function, bringing regulatory instances to assess the benefits of these developments. In parallel, the ongoing machine learning revolution and its multiple applications to trading can now be used to design a next gener

It is well known that the probability distribution of high-frequency financial returns is characterized by a leptokurtic, heavy-tailed shape. This behavior undermines the typical assumption of Gaussian log-returns behind the standard approach to risk management and option pricing. Yet, there is no c

The Heston stochastic-local volatility model, consisting of a asset price process and a Cox–Ingersoll–Ross-type variance process, offers a wide range of applications in the financial industry. The pursuit for efficient model evaluation has been assiduously ongoing and central to which is the numeric

This paper presents PolySwarm, a novel multi-agent large language model (LLM) framework designed for real-time prediction market trading and latency arbitrage on decentralized platforms such as Polymarket. PolySwarm deploys a swarm of 50 diverse LLM personas that concurrently evaluate binary outcome

This paper investigates the valuation of variable annuity contracts with an early surrender option under non-Markovian models. Moreover, policyholders are provided with guaranteed minimum maturity and death benefits to protect against the downside risk. Unlike the existing literature, our variable a

Generative models for financial time series often create data that look realistic and even reproduce stylized facts such as fat tails or volatility clustering. However, these apparent successes break down under trading backtests: models like GANs or WGAN-GP frequently collapse, yielding extreme and

This paper proposes a simulation-based framework for assessing and improving the performance of a pension fund management scheme. This framework is modular and allows the definition of customized performance metrics that are used to assess and iteratively improve asset and liability management polic

Financial decision-making presents unique challenges for language models, demanding temporal reasoning, adaptive risk assessment, and responsiveness to dynamic events. While large language models (LLMs) show strong general reasoning capabilities, they often fail to capture behavioral patterns centra

This study pioneers the application of the Gai-Kapadia framework, originally developed for interbank contagion, to global equity markets. It offers a novel approach to assess systemic risk and default cascades. Using a 20-asset network (13 Brazilian and 7 developed market assets) from 2015 to 2025,

This paper introduces an analytical formula for the fractional-order conditional moments of nonlinear drift constant elasticity of variance (NLD-CEV) processes under regime switching, governed by continuous-time finite-state irreducible Markov chains. By employing a hybrid system approach, we derive

This research investigates liquidity dynamics in fractional ownership markets, focusing on illiquid alternative investments traded on a FinTech platform. By leveraging empirical data and employing agent-based modeling (ABM), the study simulates trading behaviors in sell offer-driven systems, providi

In this paper, we study large losses arising from defaults of a credit portfolio. We assume that the portfolio dependence structure is modelled by the Archimedean copula family as opposed to the widely used Gaussian copula. The resulting model is new, and it has the capability of capturing extremal

In the financial sector, a sophisticated financial time series simulator is essential for evaluating financial products and investment strategies. Traditional back-testing methods have mainly relied on historical data-driven approaches or mathematical model-driven approaches, such as various stochas

Sovereign loan portfolios of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) typically consist of only a small number of borrowers and hence are heavily exposed to single name concentration risk. Based on realistic MDB portfolios constructed from publicly available data, this paper quantifies the magnitude of

Financial simulators play an important role in enhancing forecasting accuracy, managing risks, and fostering strategic financial decision-making. Despite the development of financial market simulation methodologies, existing frameworks often struggle with adapting to specialized simulation context.

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of future risk factors. Thus the problem of estimating its VaR an

In this paper we provide a quantum Monte Carlo algorithm to solve multidimensional Black-Scholes PDEs with correlation for option pricing. The payoff function of the option is of general form and is only required to be continuous and piecewise affine, which covers most of the relevant payoff functio

In private wealth management, a manager delegating to artificial intelligence (AI) acts as the client’s agent and the system’s principal. We introduce a model-independent formulation that combines nested principal–agent delegation with constrained joint maximisation as the task assigned to the AI s

This paper proposes an eigenvalue-based small-sample approximation of the celebrated Markov Chain Monte Carlo that delivers an invariant steady-state distribution that is consistent with traditional Monte Carlo methods. The proposed eigenvalue-based methodology reduces the number of paths required f

This paper investigates how similarity in the informational representation of market states among Artificial Intelligence (AI) trading agents can generate systemic instability in financial markets. We construct a structural multi-agent market model calibrated using high-frequency microstructural mom

We study continuous-time portfolio choice in diffusion markets with parameter $θ\in Θ$ and uncertainty law $q(dθ)$. Nature draws latent $θ\sim q$ at time 0; the investor cannot observe it and must deploy a single $θ$-blind feedback policy maximizing an ex-ante CRRA objective averaged over diffusion

Cryptocurrency markets present unique prediction challenges due to their extreme volatility, 24/7 operation, and hypersensitivity to news events, with existing approaches suffering from key information extraction and poor sideways market detection critical for risk management. We introduce a theoret

In financial trading, large language model (LLM)-based agents demonstrate significant potential. However, the high sensitivity to market noise undermines the performance of LLM-based trading systems. To address this limitation, we propose a novel multi-agent system featuring an internal competitive

Pricing of exotic financial derivatives, such as Asian and multi-asset American basket options, poses significant challenges for standard numerical methods such as binomial trees or Monte Carlo methods. While the former often scales exponentially with the parameters of interest, the latter often req

In this paper, we study the computation of sensitivities with respect to spot of path dependent financial derivatives by means of path weighting. We propose explicit path weighting formula and variance reduction adjustment in order to address the large variance happening when the first simulation ti

A quantum-inspired optimization approach is proposed to study the portfolio optimization aimed at selecting an optimal mix of assets based on the risk-return trade-off to achieve the desired goal in investment. By integrating conventional approaches with quantum-inspired methods for penalty coeffici

This paper presents a novel approach to pricing American options using piecewise diffusion Markov processes (PDifMPs), a type of generalised stochastic hybrid system that integrates continuous dynamics with discrete jump processes. Standard models often rely on constant drift and volatility assumpti

We study the problem of choosing the copula when the marginal distributions of a random vector are not all continuous. Inspired by four motivating examples including simulation from copulas, stress scenarios, co-risk measures, and dependence measures, we propose to use the checkerboard copula, that

Crépey, Frikha, and Louzi (2023) introduced a nested stochastic approximation algorithm and its multilevel acceleration to compute the value-at-risk and expected shortfall of a random financial loss. We hereby establish central limit theorems for the renormalized estimation errors associated with bo

In this work we present an alternative methodology to the standard Quantum Accelerated Monte Carlo (QAMC) applied to derivatives pricing. Our pipeline benefits from the combination of a new encoding protocol, referred to as the direct encoding, and a amplitude estimation algorithm, the modified Real

Agent-based models (ABMs) are increasingly used in macroeconomics, but their analysis still often relies on ad hoc Monte Carlo campaigns with heterogeneous statistical effort across parameter settings. We show how statistical model checking (SMC), implemented through MultiVeStA, can provide a princi

We study how AI agents form expectations and trade in experimental asset markets. Using a simulated open-call auction populated by autonomous Large Language Model (LLM) agents, we document three main findings. First, AI agents exhibit classic behavioral patterns: a pronounced disposition effect and

As Large Language Models (LLMs) become increasingly integrated into financial systems, understanding their behavioural properties is crucial. Do LLMs conform to the rational expectations paradigm, do they exhibit human-like “animal spirits”, or do they instead manifest distinct “machine spirits”? We

This research addresses accurate option pricing by employing models beyond the traditional Black-Scholes framework. While Black-Scholes provides a closed-form solution, it is limited by assumptions of constant volatility, no dividends, and continuous price movements. To overcome these limitations, w

Factor investing is ultimately grounded in market logic - the latent mechanism behind observed alpha factors that explains why they should persist across assets and regimes. However, recent factor mining prioritizes factor discovery over logic discovery, producing complex alpha factors with unclear

This study addresses the low-volatility Chinese Public Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) market, proposing a large language model (LLM)-driven trading framework based on multi-agent collaboration. The system constructs four types of analytical agents-announcement, event, price momentum, and mark

Overfitting remains a critical challenge in data-driven financial modeling, where machine learning (ML) systems learn spurious patterns in historical prices and fail out of sample and in deployment. This paper introduces the GT-Score, a composite objective function that integrates performance, stati

Stock market forecasting has been a topic of extensive research, aiming to provide investors with optimal stock recommendations for higher returns. In recent years, this field has gained even more attention due to the widespread adoption of deep learning models. While these models have achieved impr

Reinforcement learning works best when the impact of the agent’s actions on its environment can be perfectly simulated or fully appraised from available data. Some systems are however both hard to simulate and very sensitive to small perturbations. An additional difficulty arises when a RL agent is

A framework to learn a multi-modal distribution is proposed, denoted as the Conditional Quantum Generative Adversarial Network (C-qGAN). The neural network structure is strictly within a quantum circuit and, as a consequence, is shown to represent a more efficient state preparation procedure than cu

We combine the unbiased estimators in Rhee and Glynn (Operations Research: 63(5), 1026-1043, 2015) and the Heston model with stochastic interest rates. Specifically, we first develop a semi-exact log-Euler scheme for the Heston model with stochastic interest rates. Then, under mild assumptions, we s

We propose a non-parametric extension with leverage functions to the Andersen commodity curve model. We calibrate this model to market data for WTI and NG including option skew at the standard maturities. While the model can be calibrated by an analytical formula for the deterministic rate case, the

It is well-known that, in the Bachelier model, when asset prices and volatilities are uncorrelated, the implied volatility coincides with the fair value of the volatility swap. In this paper, via classical Itô calculus and Taylor expansions, we write the price for out-of-the-money (OTM) and in-the-m

Banks must optimize risky investments, dividend payouts, and capital structure under tight Basel III solvency and liquidity constraints, while costly equity issuance serves as a distress-recovery tool. We formulate this as a stochastic control problem that reduces the high-dimensional balance-sheet

This paper describes a discrete-time model of regularly-issued sovereign debt dynamics under a deficit-driven nominal debt growth regime that explicitly accounts for granular maturity. New issuance follows fixed allocations across a finite maturity ladder, and the government budget constraint determ

Prediction markets mobilize financial incentives to forecast binary event outcomes through the aggregation of dispersed beliefs and heterogeneous information. Their growing popularity and demonstrated predictive accuracy in political elections have raised speculation and concern regarding their susc

The ongoing progress in quantum technologies has fueled a sustained exploration of their potential applications across various domains. One particularly promising field is quantitative finance, where a central challenge is the pricing of financial derivatives-traditionally addressed through Monte Ca

Estimating risk measures such as large loss probabilities and Value-at-Risk is fundamental in financial risk management and often relies on computationally intensive nested Monte Carlo methods. While Multi-Level Monte Carlo (MLMC) techniques and their weighted variants are typically more efficient,

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently gained popularity in stock trading for their ability to process multimodal financial data. However, most existing methods focus on single-stock trading and lack the capacity to reason over multiple candidates for portfolio construction. Moreover, they typic

We examine a delayed stochastic interest rate model with super-linearly growing coefficients and develop several new mathematical tools to establish the properties of its true and truncated EM solutions. Moreover, we show that the true solution converges to the truncated EM solutions in probability

Quantum generative adversarial networks (QGANs) have been investigated as a method for generating synthetic data with the goal of augmenting training data sets for neural networks. This is especially relevant for financial time series, since we only ever observe one realization of the process, namel

In this paper, we propose an analytical method to compute the collateral liquidation probability in decentralized finance (DeFi) stablecoin single-collateral lending. Our approach models the collateral exchange rate as a zero-drift geometric Brownian motion, and derives the probability of it crossin

In this paper we analyze how market prices change in response to information processing among the market participants and how non-linear information dynamics drive market price movement. We analyze historical data of the SP 500 market for the period 1950 -2025 using the logistic Continuous Wavelet T

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) reduces the total computational cost of financial option pricing by combining SDE approximations with multiple resolutions. This paper explores a further avenue for reducing cost and improving power efficiency through the use of low precision calculations on configurabl

Significant progress has been made in automated problem-solving using societies of agents powered by large language models (LLMs). In finance, efforts have largely focused on single-agent systems handling specific tasks or multi-agent frameworks independently gathering data. However, the multi-agent

This paper addresses the estimation of the systemic risk measure known as CoVaR, which quantifies the risk of a financial portfolio conditional on another portfolio being at risk. We identify two principal challenges: conditioning on a zero-probability event and the repricing of portfolios. To tackl

Despite its practical significance, generating realistic synthetic financial time series is challenging due to statistical properties known as stylized facts, such as fat tails, volatility clustering, and seasonality patterns. Various generative models, including generative adversarial networks (GAN

Although powerful, current cutting-edge LLMs may not fulfil the needs of highly specialised sectors. We introduce KodeXv0.1, a family of large language models that outclass GPT-4 in financial question answering. We utilise the base variants of Llama 3.1 8B and 70B and adapt them to the financial dom

In this paper, we examine the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) procedure within a framework where the Monte Carlo estimator of the expectation is biased. We also introduce Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) in the SAA setup to enhance the computational efficiency of solving optimization problems. In th

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has been applied successfully in a wide range of settings since its first introduction by Giles (2008). When using only two levels, the method can be viewed as a kind of control-variate approach to reduce variance, as earlier proposed by Kebaier (2005). We in

The increasing use of stochastic models for describing complex phenomena warrants surrogate models that capture the reference model characteristics at a fraction of the computational cost, foregoing potentially expensive Monte Carlo simulation. The predominant approach of fitting a large neural netw

We present our Agent-Based Market Microstructure Simulation (ABMMS), an Agent-Based Financial Market (ABFM) that captures much of the complexity present in the US National Market System for equities (NMS). Agent-Based models are a natural choice for understanding financial markets. Financial markets

Although stochastic models driven by latent Markov processes are widely used, the classical importance sampling methods based on the exponential tilting for these models suffers from the difficulties in computing the eigenvalues and associated eigenfunctions and the plausibility of the indirect asym

The prevention of rapidly and steeply falling market prices is vital to avoid financial crisis. To this end, some stock exchanges implement a price limit or a circuit breaker, and there has been intensive investigation into which regulation best prevents rapid and large variations in price. In this

We consider the problem of estimating a nested structure of two expectations taking the form $U_0 = E["\max{“U_1(Y), π(Y)"}”]$, where $U_1(Y) = E[“X\ |\ Y”]$. Terms of this form arise in financial risk estimation and option pricing. When $U_1(Y)$ requires approximation, but exact samples of $X$ and

In the modern financial industry system, the structure of products has become more and more complex, and the bottleneck constraint of classical computing power has already restricted the development of the financial industry. Here, we present a photonic chip that implements the unary approach to Eur

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to extract structured knowledge from unstructured financial text. Although prior studies have explored various extraction methods, there is no universal benchmark or unified evaluation framework for the construction of financial knowledge grap

Background: Chronic diseases impose a sustained burden on healthcare systems through progressive deterioration and long-term costs. Although adherence-enhancing interventions are widely promoted, their return on investment (ROI) remains uncertain, particularly under heterogeneous patient behavior an

The analysis of credit risk is crucial for the efficient operation of financial institutions. Quantum Amplitude Estimation (QAE) offers the potential for a quadratic speed-up over classical methods used to estimate metrics such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR). However, nu

This empirical study presents the Decentralized Exchanges Comparison Service (DECS), a novel tool developed by 1inch Analytics to assess exchange efficiency in decentralized finance. The DECS utilizes swap transaction monitoring and simulation techniques to provide unbiased comparisons of swap rates

The study of systemic risk is often presented through the analysis of several measures referring to quantities used by practitioners and policy makers. Almost invariably, those measures evaluate the size of the impact that exogenous events can exhibit on a financial system without analysing the natu

This paper explores advancements in quantum algorithms for derivative pricing of exotics, a computational pipeline of fundamental importance in quantitative finance. For such cases, the classical Monte Carlo integration procedure provides the state-of-the-art provable, asymptotic performance: polyno

This paper proposes PyFi, a novel framework for pyramid-like financial image understanding that enables vision language models (VLMs) to reason through question chains in a progressive, simple-to-complex manner. At the core of PyFi is PyFi-600K, a dataset comprising 600K financial question-answer pa

Accurately forecasting central bank policy decisions, particularly those of the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) has become increasingly important amid heightened economic uncertainty. While prior studies have used monetary policy texts to predict rate changes, most rely on static classification

Large language models show promise for financial decision-making, yet deploying them as autonomous trading agents raises fundamental challenges: how to adapt instructions when rewards arrive late and obscured by market noise, how to synthesize heterogeneous information streams into coherent decision

In this paper, we describe a novel agent-based approach for modelling the transaction cost of buying or selling an asset in financial markets, e.g., to liquidate a large position as a result of a margin call to meet financial obligations. The simple act of buying or selling in the market causes a pr

We provide an extension of the unbiased simulation method for SDEs developed in Henry-Labordere et al. [“Ann Appl Probab. 27:6 (2017) 1-37”] to a class of path-dependent dynamics, pertaining for Asian options. In our setting, both the payoff and the SDE’s coefficients depend on the (weighted) averag

We analyse a Monte Carlo particle method for the simulation of the calibrated Heston-type local stochastic volatility (H-LSV) model. The common application of a kernel estimator for a conditional expectation in the calibration condition results in a McKean-Vlasov (MV) stochastic differential equatio

This paper explores how Large Language Models (LLMs) behave in a classic experimental finance paradigm widely known for eliciting bubbles and crashes in human participants. We adapt an established trading design, where traders buy and sell a risky asset with a known fundamental value, and introduce

This study explores the application of generative adversarial networks in financial market supervision, especially for solving the problem of data imbalance to improve the accuracy of risk prediction. Since financial market data are often imbalanced, especially high-risk events such as market manipu

We propose that a tree-like hierarchical structure represents a simple and effective way to model the emergent behaviour of financial markets, especially markets where there exists a pronounced intersection between social media influences and investor behaviour. To explore this hypothesis, we introd

In this paper we introduce a multi-agent deep-learning method which trades in the Futures markets based on the US S&P 500 index. The method (referred to as Model A) is an innovation founded on existing well-established machine-learning models which sample market prices and associated derivatives in

Crépey, Frikha, and Louzi (2023) introduced a multilevel stochastic approximation scheme to compute the value-at-risk of a financial loss that is only simulatable by Monte Carlo. The optimal complexity of the scheme is in $O({"\varepsilon"}^{"-5/2"})$, ${"\varepsilon"} > 0$ being a prescribed accura

This study develops a numerical scheme for path-dependent FBSDEs and PDEs. We introduce a Picard iteration method for solving path-dependent FBSDEs, prove its convergence to the true solution, and establish its rate of convergence. A key contribution of our approach is a novel estimator for the mart

As intelligent trading agents based on reinforcement learning (RL) gain prevalence, it becomes more important to ensure that RL agents obey laws, regulations, and human behavioral expectations. There is substantial literature concerning the aversion of obvious catastrophes like crashing a helicopter

Bilateral markets, such as those for government bonds, involve decentralized and opaque transactions between market makers (MMs) and clients, posing significant challenges for traditional modeling approaches. To address these complexities, we introduce TRIBE an agent-based model augmented with a lar

This paper provides a unique approach with AI algorithms to predict emerging stock markets volatility. Traditionally, stock volatility is derived from historical volatility,Monte Carlo simulation and implied volatility as well. In this paper, the writer designs a consolidated model with back-propaga

Systemic risk is receiving increasing attention in the insurance industry. In this paper, we propose a multi-dimensional Lévy process-based renewal risk model with heterogeneous insurance claims, where every dimension indicates a business line of an insurer. We use the systemic expected shortfall (S

In this paper, we introduce DeepTraderX (DTX), a simple Deep Learning-based trader, and present results that demonstrate its performance in a multi-threaded market simulation. In a total of about 500 simulated market days, DTX has learned solely by watching the prices that other strategies produce.

This paper presents a dynamic game framework to analyze the role of large banks in interbank markets. By extending existing models, we incorporate a large bank as a dynamic decision-maker interacting with multiple small banks. Using the mean-field game methodology and convex analysis, best-response

In this paper, we extend the existing double linear policy by incorporating time-varying weights instead of constant weights and study a certain robustness property, called robust positive expectation (RPE), in a discrete-time setting. We prove that the RPE property holds by employing a novel elemen

This paper investigates asymptotically optimal importance sampling (IS) schemes for pricing European call options under the Heston stochastic volatility model. We focus on two distinct rare-event regimes where standard Monte Carlo methods suffer from significant variance deterioration: the limit as

When the available data for a target domain is limited, transfer learning (TL) methods can be used to develop models on related data-rich domains, before deploying them on the target domain. However, these TL methods are typically designed with specific, static assumptions on the amount of available

We consider a dynamic portfolio optimization problem that incorporates predictable returns, instantaneous transaction costs, price impact, and stochastic volatility, extending the classical results of Garleanu and Pedersen (2013), which assume constant volatility. Constructing the optimal portfolio

We develop a numerical method for locally risk-minimizing (LRM) strategies for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BNS) models. Arai et al. (2017) derived a mathematical expression for LRM strategies in BNS models using Malliavin calculus for Lévy processes and presented some numerical results only for