Expressions of Market-Based Correlations Between Prices and Returns of Two Assets ArXiv ID: 2412.13172 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper derives the expressions of correlations between prices of two assets, returns of two assets, and price-return correlations of two assets that depend on statistical moments and correlations of the current values, past values, and volumes of their market trades. The usual frequency-based expressions of correlations of time series of prices and returns describe a partial case of our model when all trade volumes and past trade values are constant. Such an assumptions are rather far from market reality, and its use results in excess losses and wrong forecasts. Traders, banks, and funds that perform multi-million market transactions or manage billion-valued portfolios should consider the impact of large trade volumes on market prices and returns. The use of the market-based correlations of prices and returns of two assets is mandatory for them. The development of macroeconomic models and market forecasts like those being created by BlackRock’s Aladdin, JP Morgan, and the U.S. Fed., is impossible without the use of market-based correlations of prices and returns of two assets. ...

Hunting Tomorrow’s Leaders: Using Machine Learning to Forecast S&P 500 Additions & Removal ArXiv ID: 2412.12539 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study applies machine learning to predict S&P 500 membership changes: key events that profoundly impact investor behavior and market dynamics. Quarterly data from WRDS datasets (2013 onwards) was used, incorporating features such as industry classification, financial data, market data, and corporate governance indicators. Using a Random Forest model, we achieved a test F1 score of 0.85, outperforming logistic regression and SVC models. This research not only showcases the power of machine learning for financial forecasting but also emphasizes model transparency through SHAP analysis and feature engineering. The model’s real world applicability is demonstrated with predicted changes for Q3 2023, such as the addition of Uber (UBER) and the removal of SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG). By incorporating these predictions into a trading strategy i.e. buying stocks announced for addition and shorting those marked for removal, we anticipate capturing alpha and enhancing investment decision making, offering valuable insights into index dynamics ...

Market-Neutral Strategies in Mid-Cap Portfolio Management: A Data-Driven Approach to Long-Short Equity ArXiv ID: 2412.12576 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Mid-cap companies, generally valued between $2 billion and $10 billion, provide investors with a well-rounded opportunity between the fluctuation of small-cap stocks and the stability of large-cap stocks. This research builds upon the long-short equity approach (e.g., Michaud, 2018; Dimitriu, Alexander, 2002) customized for mid-cap equities, providing steady risk-adjusted returns yielding a significant Sharpe ratio of 2.132 in test data. Using data from 2013 to 2023, obtained from WRDS and following point-in-time (PIT) compliance, the approach guarantees clarity and reproducibility. Elements of essential financial indicators, such as profitability, valuation, and liquidity, were designed to improve portfolio optimization. Testing historical data across various markets conditions illustrates the stability and resilience of the tactic. This study highlights mid-cap stocks as an attractive investment route, overlooked by most analysts, which combine transparency with superior performance in managing portfolios. ...

Productivity of Short Term Assets as a Signal of Future Stock Performance ArXiv ID: 2412.13311 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper investigates cash productivity as a signal for future stock performance, building on the cash-return framework of Faulkender and Wang (2006). Using financial and market data from WRDS, we calculate cash returns as a proxy for operational efficiency and evaluate a long-only strategy applied to Nasdaq-listed non-financial firms. Results show limited predictive power across the broader Nasdaq universe but strong performance in a handpicked portfolio, which achieves significant positive alpha after controlling for the Fama-French three factors. These findings underscore the importance of refined universe selection. While promising, the strategy requires further validation, including the incorporation of transaction costs and performance testing across economic cycles. Our results suggest that cash productivity, when combined with other complementary signals and careful universe selection, can be a valuable tool for generating excess returns. ...

Volatility-Volume Order Slicing via Statistical Analysis ArXiv ID: 2412.12482 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper addresses the challenges faced in large-volume trading, where executing substantial orders can result in significant market impact and slippage. To mitigate these effects, this study proposes a volatility-volume-based order slicing strategy that leverages Exponential Weighted Moving Average and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. These methods are used to dynamically estimate future trading volumes and price ranges, enabling traders to adapt their strategies by segmenting order execution sizes based on these predictions. Results show that the proposed approach improves trade execution efficiency, reduces market impact, and offers a more adaptive solution for volatile market conditions. The findings have practical implications for large-volume trading, providing a foundation for further research into adaptive execution strategies. ...

A Deep Learning Approach for Trading Factor Residuals ArXiv ID: 2412.11432 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The residuals in factor models prevalent in asset pricing presents opportunities to exploit the mis-pricing from unexplained cross-sectional variation for arbitrage. We performed a replication of the methodology of Guijarro-Ordonez et al. (2019) (G-P-Z) on Deep Learning Statistical Arbitrage (DLSA), originally applied to U.S. equity data from 1998 to 2016, using a more recent out-of-sample period from 2016 to 2024. Adhering strictly to point-in-time (PIT) principles and ensuring no information leakage, we follow the same data pre-processing, factor modeling, and deep learning architectures (CNNs and Transformers) as outlined by G-P-Z. Our replication yields unusually strong performance metrics in certain tests, with out-of-sample Sharpe ratios occasionally exceeding 10. While such results are intriguing, they may indicate model overfitting, highly specific market conditions, or insufficient accounting for transaction costs and market impact. Further examination and robustness checks are needed to align these findings with the more modest improvements reported in the original study. (This work was conducted as the final project for IEOR 4576: Data-Driven Methods in Finance at Columbia University.) ...

A multi-factor market-neutral investment strategy for New York Stock Exchange equities ArXiv ID: 2412.12350 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This report presents a systematic market-neutral, multi-factor investment strategy for New York Stock Exchange equities with the objective of delivering steady returns while minimizing correlation with the market. A robust feature set is integrated combining momentum-based indicators, fundamental factors, and analyst recommendations. Using various statistical tests for feature selection, the strategy identifies key drivers of equity performance and ranks stocks to build a balanced portfolio of long and short positions. Portfolio construction methods, including equally weighted, risk parity, and minimum variance beta-neutral approaches, were evaluated through rigorous backtesting. Risk parity demonstrated superior performance with a higher Sharpe ratio, lower beta, and smaller maximum drawdown compared to the Standard and Poor’s 500 index. Risk parity’s market neutrality, combined with its ability to maintain steady returns and mitigate large drawdowns, makes it a suitable approach for managing significant capital in equity markets. ...

Cost-aware Portfolios in a Large Universe of Assets ArXiv ID: 2412.11575 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper considers the finite horizon portfolio rebalancing problem in terms of mean-variance optimization, where decisions are made based on current information on asset returns and transaction costs. The study’s novelty is that the transaction costs are integrated within the optimization problem in a high-dimensional portfolio setting where the number of assets is larger than the sample size. We propose portfolio construction and rebalancing models with nonconvex penalty considering two types of transaction cost, the proportional transaction cost and the quadratic transaction cost. We establish the desired theoretical properties under mild regularity conditions. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical studies using S&P 500 and Russell 2000 stocks show the satisfactory performance of the proposed portfolio and highlight the importance of involving the transaction costs when rebalancing a portfolio. ...

Multivariate Distributions in Non-Stationary Complex Systems I: Random Matrix Model and Formulae for Data Analysis ArXiv ID: 2412.11601 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Risk assessment for rare events is essential for understanding systemic stability in complex systems. As rare events are typically highly correlated, it is important to study heavy-tailed multivariate distributions of the relevant variables, especially in the presence of non-stationarity. We use a generalized scalar product between correlation matrices to clearly demonstrate this non-stationarity. Further, we present a model that we recently put forward, which captures how the non-stationary fluctuations of correlations make the tails of multivariate distributions heavier. Here, we provide the resulting formulae including Gaussian or Algebraic features. Compared to our previous results, we manage to remove in the Algebraic cases one out of the two, respectively three, fit parameters which considerably facilitates applications. We demonstrate the usefulness of these results by deriving joint distributions for linear combinations of amplitudes and validating them with financial data. Furthermore, we explicitly work out the moments of our model distributions. In a forthcoming paper we apply the model to financial markets. ...

Multivariate Distributions in Non-Stationary Complex Systems II: Empirical Results for Correlated Stock Markets ArXiv ID: 2412.11602 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Multivariate Distributions are needed to capture the correlation structure of complex systems. In previous works, we developed a Random Matrix Model for such correlated multivariate joint probability density functions that accounts for the non-stationarity typically found in complex systems. Here, we apply these results to the returns measured in correlated stock markets. Only the knowledge of the multivariate return distributions allows for a full-fledged risk assessment. We analyze intraday data of 479 US stocks included in the S&P500 index during the trading year of 2014. We focus particularly on the tails which are algebraic and heavy. The non-stationary fluctuations of the correlations make the tails heavier. With the few-parameter formulae of our Random Matrix Model we can describe and quantify how the empirical distributions change for varying time resolution and in the presence of non-stationarity. ...