Implementing Dynamic Pricing Across Multiple Pricing Groups in Real Estate ArXiv ID: 2411.07732 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This article presents a mathematical model of dynamic pricing for real estate (RE) that incorporates multiple pricing groups, thereby expanding the capabilities of existing models. The developed model solves the problem of maximizing aggregate cumulative revenue at the end of the sales period while meeting the revenue and sales goals. A method is proposed for distributing aggregate cumulative revenue goals across different RE pricing groups. The model is further modified to account for the time value of money and the real estate value increase as construction progresses. The algorithm for constructing a pricing policy for multiple pricing groups is described, and numerical simulations are performed to demonstrate how the algorithm operates. ...

New approaches of the DCC-GARCH residual: Application to foreign exchange rates ArXiv ID: 2411.08246 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Two formulations are proposed to filter out correlations in the residuals of the multivariate GARCH model. The first approach is to estimate the correlation matrix as a parameter and transform any joint distribution to have an arbitrary correlation matrix. The second approach transforms time series data into an uncorrelated residual based on the eigenvalue decomposition of a correlation matrix. The empirical performance of these methods is examined through a prediction task for foreign exchange rates and compared with other methodologies in terms of the out-of-sample likelihood. By using these approaches, the DCC-GARCH residual can be almost independent. ...

Optimal two-parameter portfolio management strategy with transaction costs ArXiv ID: 2411.07949 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We consider a simplified model for optimizing a single-asset portfolio in the presence of transaction costs given a signal with a certain autocorrelation and cross-correlation structure. In our setup, the portfolio manager is given two one-parameter controls to influence the construction of the portfolio. The first is a linear filtering parameter that may increase or decrease the level of autocorrelation in the signal. The second is a numerical threshold that determines a symmetric “no-trade” zone. Portfolio positions are constrained to a single unit long or a single unit short. These constraints allow us to focus on the interplay between the signal filtering mechanism and the hysteresis introduced by the “no-trade” zone. We then formulate an optimization problem where we aim to minimize the frequency of trades subject to a fixed return level of the portfolio. We show that maintaining a no-trade zone while removing autocorrelation entirely from the signal yields a locally optimal solution. For any given “no-trade” zone threshold, this locally optimal solution also achieves the maximum attainable return level, and we derive a quantitative lower bound for the amount of improvement in terms of the given threshold and the amount of autocorrelation removed. ...

Reinforcement Learning Framework for Quantitative Trading ArXiv ID: 2411.07585 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The inherent volatility and dynamic fluctuations within the financial stock market underscore the necessity for investors to employ a comprehensive and reliable approach that integrates risk management strategies, market trends, and the movement trends of individual securities. By evaluating specific data, investors can make more informed decisions. However, the current body of literature lacks substantial evidence supporting the practical efficacy of reinforcement learning (RL) agents, as many models have only demonstrated success in back testing using historical data. This highlights the urgent need for a more advanced methodology capable of addressing these challenges. There is a significant disconnect in the effective utilization of financial indicators to better understand the potential market trends of individual securities. The disclosure of successful trading strategies is often restricted within financial markets, resulting in a scarcity of widely documented and published strategies leveraging RL. Furthermore, current research frequently overlooks the identification of financial indicators correlated with various market trends and their potential advantages. This research endeavors to address these complexities by enhancing the ability of RL agents to effectively differentiate between positive and negative buy/sell actions using financial indicators. While we do not address all concerns, this paper provides deeper insights and commentary on the utilization of technical indicators and their benefits within reinforcement learning. This work establishes a foundational framework for further exploration and investigation of more complex scenarios. ...

A Fully Analog Pipeline for Portfolio Optimization ArXiv ID: 2411.06566 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Portfolio optimization is a ubiquitous problem in financial mathematics that relies on accurate estimates of covariance matrices for asset returns. However, estimates of pairwise covariance could be better and calculating time-sensitive optimal portfolios is energy-intensive for digital computers. We present an energy-efficient, fast, and fully analog pipeline for solving portfolio optimization problems that overcomes these limitations. The analog paradigm leverages the fundamental principles of physics to recover accurate optimal portfolios in a two-step process. Firstly, we utilize equilibrium propagation, an analog alternative to backpropagation, to train linear autoencoder neural networks to calculate low-rank covariance matrices. Then, analog continuous Hopfield networks output the minimum variance portfolio for a given desired expected return. The entire efficient frontier may then be recovered, and an optimal portfolio selected based on risk appetite. ...

Optimal Execution with Reinforcement Learning ArXiv ID: 2411.06389 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study investigates the development of an optimal execution strategy through reinforcement learning, aiming to determine the most effective approach for traders to buy and sell inventory within a finite time horizon. Our proposed model leverages input features derived from the current state of the limit order book and operates at a high frequency to maximize control. To simulate this environment and overcome the limitations associated with relying on historical data, we utilize the multi-agent market simulator ABIDES, which provides a diverse range of depth levels within the limit order book. We present a custom MDP formulation followed by the results of our methodology and benchmark the performance against standard execution strategies. Results show that the reinforcement learning agent outperforms standard strategies and offers a practical foundation for real-world trading applications. ...

A Random Forest approach to detect and identify Unlawful Insider Trading ArXiv ID: 2411.13564 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract According to The Exchange Act, 1934 unlawful insider trading is the abuse of access to privileged corporate information. While a blurred line between “routine” the “opportunistic” insider trading exists, detection of strategies that insiders mold to maneuver fair market prices to their advantage is an uphill battle for hand-engineered approaches. In the context of detailed high-dimensional financial and trade data that are structurally built by multiple covariates, in this study, we explore, implement and provide detailed comparison to the existing study (Deng et al. (2019)) and independently implement automated end-to-end state-of-art methods by integrating principal component analysis to the random forest (PCA-RF) followed by a standalone random forest (RF) with 320 and 3984 randomly selected, semi-manually labeled and normalized transactions from multiple industry. The settings successfully uncover latent structures and detect unlawful insider trading. Among the multiple scenarios, our best-performing model accurately classified 96.43 percent of transactions. Among all transactions the models find 95.47 lawful as lawful and $98.00$ unlawful as unlawful percent. Besides, the model makes very few mistakes in classifying lawful as unlawful by missing only 2.00 percent. In addition to the classification task, model generated Gini Impurity based features ranking, our analysis show ownership and governance related features based on permutation values play important roles. In summary, a simple yet powerful automated end-to-end method relieves labor-intensive activities to redirect resources to enhance rule-making and tracking the uncaptured unlawful insider trading transactions. We emphasize that developed financial and trading features are capable of uncovering fraudulent behaviors. ...

BreakGPT: Leveraging Large Language Models for Predicting Asset Price Surges ArXiv ID: 2411.06076 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper introduces BreakGPT, a novel large language model (LLM) architecture adapted specifically for time series forecasting and the prediction of sharp upward movements in asset prices. By leveraging both the capabilities of LLMs and Transformer-based models, this study evaluates BreakGPT and other Transformer-based models for their ability to address the unique challenges posed by highly volatile financial markets. The primary contribution of this work lies in demonstrating the effectiveness of combining time series representation learning with LLM prediction frameworks. We showcase BreakGPT as a promising solution for financial forecasting with minimal training and as a strong competitor for capturing both local and global temporal dependencies. ...

The lexical ratio: A new perspective on portfolio diversification ArXiv ID: 2411.06080 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Portfolio diversification, traditionally measured through asset correlations and volatilitybased metrics, is fundamental to managing financial risk. However, existing diversification metrics often overlook non-numerical relationships between assets that can impact portfolio stability, particularly during market stresses. This paper introduces the lexical ratio (LR), a novel metric that leverages textual data to capture diversification dimensions absent in standard approaches. By treating each asset as a unique document composed of sectorspecific and financial keywords, the LR evaluates portfolio diversification by distributing these terms across assets, incorporating entropy-based insights from information theory. We thoroughly analyze LR’s properties, including scale invariance, concavity, and maximality, demonstrating its theoretical robustness and ability to enhance risk-adjusted portfolio returns. Using empirical tests on S&P 500 portfolios, we compare LR’s performance to established metrics such as Markowitz’s volatility-based measures and diversification ratios. Our tests reveal LR’s superiority in optimizing portfolio returns, especially under varied market conditions. Our findings show that LR aligns with conventional metrics and captures unique diversification aspects, suggesting it is a viable tool for portfolio managers. ...

Approaching multifractal complexity in decentralized cryptocurrency trading ArXiv ID: 2411.05951 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Multifractality is a concept that helps compactly grasping the most essential features of the financial dynamics. In its fully developed form, this concept applies to essentially all mature financial markets and even to more liquid cryptocurrencies traded on the centralized exchanges. A new element that adds complexity to cryptocurrency markets is the possibility of decentralized trading. Based on the extracted tick-by-tick transaction data from the Universal Router contract of the Uniswap decentralized exchange, from June 6, 2023, to June 30, 2024, the present study using Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA) shows that even though liquidity on these new exchanges is still much lower compared to centralized exchanges convincing traces of multifractality are already emerging on this new trading as well. The resulting multifractal spectra are however strongly left-side asymmetric which indicates that this multifractality comes primarily from large fluctuations and small ones are more of the uncorrelated noise type. What is particularly interesting here is the fact that multifractality is more developed for time series representing transaction volumes than rates of return. On the level of these larger events a trace of multifractal cross-correlations between the two characteristics is also observed. ...