Dynamic graph neural networks for enhanced volatility prediction in financial markets ArXiv ID: 2410.16858 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often fail to model complex, non-linear interdependencies between multiple indices. This paper proposes a novel approach using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to represent global financial markets as dynamic graphs. The Temporal Graph Attention Network (Temporal GAT) combines Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) and Graph Attention Networks (GATs) to capture the temporal and structural dynamics of volatility spillovers. By utilizing correlation-based and volatility spillover indices, the Temporal GAT constructs directed graphs that enhance the accuracy of volatility predictions. Empirical results from a 15-year study of eight major global indices show that the Temporal GAT outperforms traditional GARCH models and other machine learning methods, particularly in short- to mid-term forecasts. The sensitivity and scenario-based analysis over a range of parameters and hyperparameters further demonstrate the significance of the proposed technique. Hence, this work highlights the potential of GNNs in modeling complex market behaviors, providing valuable insights for financial analysts and investors. ...

Kendall Correlation Coefficients for Portfolio Optimization ArXiv ID: 2410.17366 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Markowitz’s optimal portfolio relies on the accurate estimation of correlations between asset returns, a difficult problem when the number of observations is not much larger than the number of assets. Using powerful results from random matrix theory, several schemes have been developed to “clean” the eigenvalues of empirical correlation matrices. By contrast, the (in practice equally important) problem of correctly estimating the eigenvectors of the correlation matrix has received comparatively little attention. Here we discuss a class of correlation estimators generalizing Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient which improve the estimation of both eigenvalues and eigenvectors in data-poor regimes. Using both synthetic and real financial data, we show that these generalized correlation coefficients yield Markowitz portfolios with lower out-of-sample risk than those obtained with rotationally invariant estimators. Central to these results is a property shared by all Kendall-like estimators but not with classical correlation coefficients: zero eigenvalues only appear when the number of assets becomes proportional to the square of the number of data points. ...

Neuroevolution Neural Architecture Search for Evolving RNNs in Stock Return Prediction and Portfolio Trading ArXiv ID: 2410.17212 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Stock return forecasting is a major component of numerous finance applications. Predicted stock returns can be incorporated into portfolio trading algorithms to make informed buy or sell decisions which can optimize returns. In such portfolio trading applications, the predictive performance of a time series forecasting model is crucial. In this work, we propose the use of the Evolutionary eXploration of Augmenting Memory Models (EXAMM) algorithm to progressively evolve recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for stock return predictions. RNNs are evolved independently for each stocks and portfolio trading decisions are made based on the predicted stock returns. The portfolio used for testing consists of the 30 companies in the Dow-Jones Index (DJI) with each stock have the same weight. Results show that using these evolved RNNs and a simple daily long-short strategy can generate higher returns than both the DJI index and the S&P 500 Index for both 2022 (bear market) and 2023 (bull market). ...

A Dynamic Spatiotemporal and Network ARCH Model with Common Factors ArXiv ID: 2410.16526 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal volatility model that extends traditional approaches by incorporating spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects, along with volatility-specific observed and latent factors. The model offers a more general network interpretation, making it applicable for studying various types of network spillovers. The primary innovation lies in incorporating volatility-specific latent factors into the dynamic spatiotemporal volatility model. Using Bayesian estimation via the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the model offers a robust framework for analyzing the spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal effects of a log-squared outcome variable on its volatility. We recommend using the deviance information criterion (DIC) and a regularized Bayesian MCMC method to select the number of relevant factors in the model. The model’s flexibility is demonstrated through two applications: a spatiotemporal model applied to the U.S. housing market and another applied to financial stock market networks, both highlighting the model’s ability to capture varying degrees of interconnectedness. In both applications, we find strong spatial/network interactions with relatively stronger spillover effects in the stock market. ...

Forecasting Company Fundamentals ArXiv ID: 2411.05791 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Company fundamentals are key to assessing companies’ financial and overall success and stability. Forecasting them is important in multiple fields, including investing and econometrics. While statistical and contemporary machine learning methods have been applied to many time series tasks, there is a lack of comparison of these approaches on this particularly challenging data regime. To this end, we try to bridge this gap and thoroughly evaluate the theoretical properties and practical performance of 24 deterministic and probabilistic company fundamentals forecasting models on real company data. We observe that deep learning models provide superior forecasting performance to classical models, in particular when considering uncertainty estimation. To validate the findings, we compare them to human analyst expectations and find that their accuracy is comparable to the automatic forecasts. We further show how these high-quality forecasts can benefit automated stock allocation. We close by presenting possible ways of integrating domain experts to further improve performance and increase reliability. ...

Inferring Option Movements Through Residual Transactions: A Quantitative Model ArXiv ID: 2410.16563 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This research presents a novel approach to predicting option movements by analyzing residual transactions, which are trades that deviate from standard hedging activities. Unlike traditional methods that primarily focus on open interest and trading volume, this study argues that residuals can reveal nuanced insights into institutional sentiment and strategic positioning. By examining these deviations, the model identifies early indicators of market trends, providing a refined framework for forecasting option prices. The proposed model integrates classical machine learning and regression techniques to analyze patterns in high frequency trading data, capturing complex, non linear relationships. This predictive framework allows traders to anticipate shifts in option values, enhancing strategies for better market timing, risk management, and portfolio optimization. The model’s adaptability, driven by real time data processing, makes it particularly effective in fast paced trading environments, where early detection of institutional behavior is crucial for gaining a competitive edge. Overall, this research contributes to the field of options trading by offering a strategic tool that detects early market signals, optimizing trading decisions based on predictive insights derived from residual trading patterns. This approach bridges the gap between conventional metrics and the subtle behaviors of institutional players, marking a significant advancement in options market analysis. ...

Modelling financial returns with mixtures of generalized normal distributions ArXiv ID: 2411.11847 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This PhD Thesis presents an investigation into the analysis of financial returns using mixture models, focusing on mixtures of generalized normal distributions (MGND) and their extensions. The study addresses several critical issues encountered in the estimation process and proposes innovative solutions to enhance accuracy and efficiency. In Chapter 2, the focus lies on the MGND model and its estimation via expectation conditional maximization (ECM) and generalized expectation maximization (GEM) algorithms. A thorough exploration reveals a degeneracy issue when estimating the shape parameter. Several algorithms are proposed to overcome this critical issue. Chapter 3 extends the theoretical perspective by applying the MGND model on several stock market indices. A two-step approach is proposed for identifying turmoil days and estimating returns and volatility. Chapter 4 introduces constrained mixture of generalized normal distributions (CMGND), enhancing interpretability and efficiency by imposing constraints on parameters. Simulation results highlight the benefits of constrained parameter estimation. Finally, Chapter 5 introduces generalized normal distribution-hidden Markov models (GND-HMMs) able to capture the dynamic nature of financial returns. This manuscript contributes to the statistical modelling of financial returns by offering flexible, parsimonious, and interpretable frameworks. The proposed mixture models capture complex patterns in financial data, thereby facilitating more informed decision-making in financial analysis and risk management. ...

Comparative Analysis of LSTM, GRU, and Transformer Models for Stock Price Prediction ArXiv ID: 2411.05790 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In recent fast-paced financial markets, investors constantly seek ways to gain an edge and make informed decisions. Although achieving perfect accuracy in stock price predictions remains elusive, artificial intelligence (AI) advancements have significantly enhanced our ability to analyze historical data and identify potential trends. This paper takes AI driven stock price trend prediction as the core research, makes a model training data set of famous Tesla cars from 2015 to 2024, and compares LSTM, GRU, and Transformer Models. The analysis is more consistent with the model of stock trend prediction, and the experimental results show that the accuracy of the LSTM model is 94%. These methods ultimately allow investors to make more informed decisions and gain a clearer insight into market behaviors. ...

Conformal Predictive Portfolio Selection ArXiv ID: 2410.16333 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This study examines portfolio selection using predictive models for portfolio returns. Portfolio selection is a fundamental task in finance, and a variety of methods have been developed to achieve this goal. For instance, the mean-variance approach constructs portfolios by balancing the trade-off between the mean and variance of asset returns, while the quantile-based approach optimizes portfolios by considering tail risk. These methods often depend on distributional information estimated from historical data using predictive models, each of which carries its own uncertainty. To address this, we propose a framework for predictive portfolio selection via conformal prediction , called \emph{“Conformal Predictive Portfolio Selection”} (CPPS). Our approach forecasts future portfolio returns, computes the corresponding prediction intervals, and selects the portfolio of interest based on these intervals. The framework is flexible and can accommodate a wide range of predictive models, including autoregressive (AR) models, random forests, and neural networks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the CPPS framework by applying it to an AR model and validate its performance through empirical studies, showing that it delivers superior returns compared to simpler strategies. ...

Hierarchical Reinforced Trader (HRT): A Bi-Level Approach for Optimizing Stock Selection and Execution ArXiv ID: 2410.14927 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Leveraging Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in automated stock trading has shown promising results, yet its application faces significant challenges, including the curse of dimensionality, inertia in trading actions, and insufficient portfolio diversification. Addressing these challenges, we introduce the Hierarchical Reinforced Trader (HRT), a novel trading strategy employing a bi-level Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning framework. The HRT integrates a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO)-based High-Level Controller (HLC) for strategic stock selection with a Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (DDPG)-based Low-Level Controller (LLC) tasked with optimizing trade executions to enhance portfolio value. In our empirical analysis, comparing the HRT agent with standalone DRL models and the S&P 500 benchmark during both bullish and bearish market conditions, we achieve a positive and higher Sharpe ratio. This advancement not only underscores the efficacy of incorporating hierarchical structures into DRL strategies but also mitigates the aforementioned challenges, paving the way for designing more profitable and robust trading algorithms in complex markets. ...