Achilles, Neural Network to Predict the Gold Vs US Dollar Integration with Trading Bot for Automatic Trading ArXiv ID: 2410.21291 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Predicting the stock market is a big challenge for the machine learning world. It is known how difficult it is to have accurate and consistent predictions with ML models. Some architectures are able to capture the movement of stocks but almost never are able to be launched to the production world. We present Achilles, with a classical architecture of LSTM(Long Short Term Memory) neural network this model is able to predict the Gold vs USD commodity. With the predictions minute-per-minute of this model we implemented a trading bot to run during 23 days of testing excluding weekends. At the end of the testing period we generated $1623.52 in profit with the methodology used. The results of our method demonstrate Machine Learning can successfully be implemented to predict the Gold vs USD commodity. ...

Can GANs Learn the Stylized Facts of Financial Time Series? ArXiv ID: 2410.09850 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the financial sector, a sophisticated financial time series simulator is essential for evaluating financial products and investment strategies. Traditional back-testing methods have mainly relied on historical data-driven approaches or mathematical model-driven approaches, such as various stochastic processes. However, in the current era of AI, data-driven approaches, where models learn the intrinsic characteristics of data directly, have emerged as promising techniques. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have surfaced as promising generative models, capturing data distributions through adversarial learning. Financial time series, characterized ‘stylized facts’ such as random walks, mean-reverting patterns, unexpected jumps, and time-varying volatility, present significant challenges for deep neural networks to learn their intrinsic characteristics. This study examines the ability of GANs to learn diverse and complex temporal patterns (i.e., stylized facts) of both univariate and multivariate financial time series. Our extensive experiments revealed that GANs can capture various stylized facts of financial time series, but their performance varies significantly depending on the choice of generator architecture. This suggests that naively applying GANs might not effectively capture the intricate characteristics inherent in financial time series, highlighting the importance of carefully considering and validating the modeling choices. ...

No Tick-Size Too Small: A General Method for Modelling Small Tick Limit Order Books ArXiv ID: 2410.08744 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Tick-sizes not only influence the granularity of the price formation process but also affect market agents’ behavior. We investigate the disparity in the microstructural properties of the Limit Order Book (LOB) across a basket of assets with different relative tick-sizes. A key contribution of this study is the identification of several stylized facts, which are used to differentiate between large, medium, and small-tick assets, along with clear metrics for their measurement. We provide cross-asset visualizations to illustrate how these attributes vary with relative tick-size. Further, we propose a Hawkes Process model that {"\color{black"}not only fits well for large-tick assets, but also accounts for }sparsity, multi-tick level price moves, and the shape of the LOB in small-tick assets. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate the {"\color{black"} versatility} of the model and identify key variables that determine whether a simulated LOB resembles a large-tick or small-tick asset. Our tests show that stylized facts like sparsity, shape, and relative returns distribution can be smoothly transitioned from a large-tick to a small-tick asset using our model. We test this model’s assumptions, showcase its challenges and propose questions for further directions in this area of research. ...

Fitting the seven-parameter Generalized Tempered Stable distribution to the financial data ArXiv ID: 2410.19751 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The paper proposes and implements a methodology to fit a seven-parameter Generalized Tempered Stable (GTS) distribution to financial data. The nonexistence of the mathematical expression of the GTS probability density function makes the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) inadequate for providing parameter estimations. Based on the function characteristic and the fractional Fourier transform (FRFT), we provide a comprehensive approach to circumvent the problem and yield a good parameter estimation of the GTS probability. The methodology was applied to fit two heavily tailed data (Bitcoin and Ethereum returns) and two peaked data (S&P 500 and SPY ETF returns). For each index, the estimation results show that the six-parameter estimations are statistically significant except for the local parameter, $μ$. The goodness-of-fit was assessed through Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Anderson-Darling, and Pearson’s chi-squared statistics. While the two-parameter geometric Brownian motion (GBM) hypothesis is always rejected, the GTS distribution fits significantly with a very high p-value; and outperforms the Kobol, Carr-Geman-Madan-Yor, and Bilateral Gamma distributions. ...

Optimal mutual insurance against systematic longevity risk ArXiv ID: 2410.07749 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We mathematically demonstrate how and what it means for two collective pension funds to mutually insure one another against systematic longevity risk. The key equation that facilitates the exchange of insurance is a market clearing condition. This enables an insurance market to be established even if the two funds face the same mortality risk, so long as they have different risk preferences. Provided the preferences of the two funds are not too dissimilar, insurance provides little benefit, implying the base scheme is effectively optimal. When preferences vary significantly, insurance can be beneficial. ...

TraderTalk: An LLM Behavioural ABM applied to Simulating Human Bilateral Trading Interactions ArXiv ID: 2410.21280 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We introduce a novel hybrid approach that augments Agent-Based Models (ABMs) with behaviors generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate human trading interactions. We call our model TraderTalk. Leveraging LLMs trained on extensive human-authored text, we capture detailed and nuanced representations of bilateral conversations in financial trading. Applying this Generative Agent-Based Model (GABM) to government bond markets, we replicate trading decisions between two stylised virtual humans. Our method addresses both structural challenges, such as coordinating turn-taking between realistic LLM-based agents, and design challenges, including the interpretation of LLM outputs by the agent model. By exploring prompt design opportunistically rather than systematically, we enhance the realism of agent interactions without exhaustive overfitting or model reliance. Our approach successfully replicates trade-to-order volume ratios observed in related asset markets, demonstrating the potential of LLM-augmented ABMs in financial simulations ...

Generating long-horizon stock “buy” signals with a neural language model ArXiv ID: 2410.18988 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper describes experiments on fine-tuning a small language model to generate forecasts of long-horizon stock price movements. Inputs to the model are narrative text from 10-K reports of large market capitalization companies in the S&P 500 index; the output is a forward-looking buy or sell decision. Price direction is predicted at discrete horizons up to 12 months after the report filing date. The results reported here demonstrate good out-of-sample statistical performance (F1-macro= 0.62) at medium to long investment horizons. In particular, the buy signals generated from 10-K text are found most precise at 6 and 9 months in the future. As measured by the F1 score, the buy signal provides between 4.8 and 9 percent improvement against a random stock selection model. In contrast, sell signals generated by the models do not perform well. This may be attributed to the highly imbalanced out-of-sample data, or perhaps due to management drafting annual reports with a bias toward positive language. Cross-sectional analysis of performance by economic sector suggests that idiosyncratic reporting styles within industries are correlated with varying degrees and time scales of price movement predictability. ...

Simulating and analyzing a sparse order book: an application to intraday electricity markets ArXiv ID: 2410.06839 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper presents a novel model for simulating and analyzing sparse limit order books (LOBs), with a specific application to the European intraday electricity market. In illiquid markets, characterized by significant gaps between order levels due to sparse trading volumes, traditional LOB models often fall short. Our approach utilizes an inhomogeneous Poisson process to accurately capture the sporadic nature of order arrivals and cancellations on both the bid and ask sides of the book. By applying this model to the intraday electricity market, we gain insights into the unique microstructural behaviors and challenges of this dynamic trading environment. The results offer valuable implications for market participants, enhancing their understanding of LOB dynamics in illiquid markets. This work contributes to the broader field of market microstructure by providing a robust framework adaptable to various illiquid market settings beyond electricity trading. ...

A Case Study of Next Portfolio Prediction for Mutual Funds ArXiv ID: 2410.18098 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Mutual funds aim to generate returns above market averages. While predicting their future portfolio allocations can bring economic advantages, the task remains challenging and largely unexplored. To fill that gap, this work frames mutual fund portfolio prediction as a Next Novel Basket Recommendation (NNBR) task, focusing on predicting novel items in a fund’s next portfolio. We create a comprehensive benchmark dataset using publicly available data and evaluate the performance of various recommender system models on the NNBR task. Our findings reveal that predicting novel items in mutual fund portfolios is inherently more challenging than predicting the entire portfolio or only repeated items. While state-of-the-art NBR models are outperformed by simple heuristics when considering both novel and repeated items together, autoencoder-based approaches demonstrate superior performance in predicting only new items. The insights gained from this study highlight the importance of considering domain-specific characteristics when applying recommender systems to mutual fund portfolio prediction. The performance gap between predicting the entire portfolio or repeated items and predicting novel items underscores the complexity of the NNBR task in this domain and the need for continued research to develop more robust and adaptable models for this critical financial application. ...

Quantum-Inspired Portfolio Optimization In The QUBO Framework ArXiv ID: 2410.05932 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract A quantum-inspired optimization approach is proposed to study the portfolio optimization aimed at selecting an optimal mix of assets based on the risk-return trade-off to achieve the desired goal in investment. By integrating conventional approaches with quantum-inspired methods for penalty coefficient estimation, this approach enables faster and accurate solutions to portfolio optimization which is validated through experiments using a real-world dataset of quarterly financial data spanning over ten-year period. In addition, the proposed preprocessing method of two-stage search further enhances the effectiveness of our approach, showing the ability to improve computational efficiency while maintaining solution accuracy through appropriate setting of parameters. This research contributes to the growing body of literature on quantum-inspired techniques in finance, demonstrating its potential as a useful tool for asset allocation and portfolio management. ...