Cyber Risk Taxonomies: Statistical Analysis of Cybersecurity Risk Classifications ArXiv ID: 2410.05297 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Cyber risk classifications are widely used in the modeling of cyber event distributions, yet their effectiveness in out of sample forecasting performance remains underexplored. In this paper, we analyse the most commonly used classifications and argue in favour of switching the attention from goodness-of-fit and in-sample predictive performance, to focusing on the out-of sample forecasting performance. We use a rolling window analysis, to compare cyber risk distribution forecasts via threshold weighted scoring functions. Our results indicate that business motivated cyber risk classifications appear to be too restrictive and not flexible enough to capture the heterogeneity of cyber risk events. We investigate how dynamic and impact-based cyber risk classifiers seem to be better suited in forecasting future cyber risk losses than the other considered classifications. These findings suggest that cyber risk types provide limited forecasting ability concerning cyber event severity distribution, and cyber insurance ratemakers should utilize cyber risk types only when modeling the cyber event frequency distribution. Our study offers valuable insights for decision-makers and policymakers alike, contributing to the advancement of scientific knowledge in the field of cyber risk management. ...

Generative AI, Managerial Expectations, and Economic Activity ArXiv ID: 2410.03897 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We use generative AI to extract managerial expectations about their economic outlook from 120,000+ corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, and employment up to 10 quarters ahead, beyond existing measures like survey forecasts. Moreover, industry and firm-level measures provide valuable information about sector-specific and individual firm activities. A composite measure that integrates managerial expectations about firm, industry, and macroeconomic conditions further significantly improves the forecasting power and predictive horizon of national and sectoral growth. Our findings show managerial expectations offer unique insights into economic activity, with implications for both macroeconomic and microeconomic decision-making. ...

Leveraging Fundamental Analysis for Stock Trend Prediction for Profit ArXiv ID: 2410.03913 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper investigates the application of machine learning models, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Networks (1D CNN), and Logistic Regression (LR), for predicting stock trends based on fundamental analysis. Unlike most existing studies that predominantly utilize technical or sentiment analysis, we emphasize the use of a company’s financial statements and intrinsic value for trend forecasting. Using a dataset of 269 data points from publicly traded companies across various sectors from 2019 to 2023, we employ key financial ratios and the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to formulate two prediction tasks: Annual Stock Price Difference (ASPD) and Difference between Current Stock Price and Intrinsic Value (DCSPIV). These tasks assess the likelihood of annual profit and current profitability, respectively. Our results demonstrate that LR models outperform CNN and LSTM models, achieving an average test accuracy of 74.66% for ASPD and 72.85% for DCSPIV. This study contributes to the limited literature on integrating fundamental analysis into machine learning for stock prediction, offering valuable insights for both academic research and practical investment strategies. By leveraging fundamental data, our approach highlights the potential for long-term stock trend prediction, supporting portfolio managers in their decision-making processes. ...

A second order finite volume IMEX Runge-Kutta scheme for two dimensional PDEs in finance ArXiv ID: 2410.02925 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this article we present a novel and general methodology for building second order finite volume implicit-explicit (IMEX) numerical schemes for solving two dimensional financial parabolic PDEs with mixed derivatives. In particular, applications to basket and Heston models are presented. The obtained numerical schemes have excellent properties and are able to overcome the well-documented difficulties related with numerical approximations in the financial literature. The methods achieve true second order convergence with non-regular initial conditions. Besides, the IMEX time integrator allows to overcome the tiny time-step induced by the diffusive term in the explicit schemes, also providing very accurate and non-oscillatory approximations of the Greeks. Finally, in order to assess all the aforementioned good properties of the developed numerical schemes, we compute extremely accurate semi-analytic solutions using multi-dimensional Fourier cosine expansions. A novel technique to truncate the Fourier series for basket options is presented and it is efficiently implemented using multi-GPUs. ...

A Spatio-Temporal Machine Learning Model for Mortgage Credit Risk: Default Probabilities and Loan Portfolios ArXiv ID: 2410.02846 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of spatio-temporal frailty effects. ...

Boundary treatment for high-order IMEX Runge-Kutta local discontinuous Galerkin schemes for multidimensional nonlinear parabolic PDEs ArXiv ID: 2410.02927 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this article, we propose novel boundary treatment algorithms to avoid order reduction when implicit-explicit Runge-Kutta time discretization is used for solving convection-diffusion-reaction problems with time-dependent Di-richlet boundary conditions. We consider Cartesian meshes and PDEs with stiff terms coming from the diffusive parts of the PDE. The algorithms treat boundary values at the implicit-explicit internal stages in the same way as the interior points. The boundary treatment strategy is designed to work with multidimensional problems with possible nonlinear advection and source terms. The proposed methods recover the designed order of convergence by numerical verification. For the spatial discretization, in this work, we consider Local Discontinuous Galerkin methods, although the developed boundary treatment algorithms can operate with other discretization schemes in space, such as Finite Differences, Finite Elements or Finite Volumes. ...

Cracking the code: Lessons from 15 years of digital health IPOs for the era of AI ArXiv ID: 2410.02709 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Introduction: As digital health evolves, identifying factors that drive success is crucial. This study examines how reimbursement billing codes affect the long-term financial performance of digital health companies on U.S. stock markets, addressing the question: What separates the winners from the rest? Methods: We analyzed digital health companies that went public on U.S. stock exchanges between 2010 and 2021, offering products or services aimed at improving personal health or disease management within the U.S. market. A search using Google and existing IPO lists identified eligible companies. They were categorized based on the presence or absence of billing codes at the time of their initial public offering (IPO). Key performance indicators, including Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), relative performance to benchmark indices, and market capitalization change, were compared using Mann-Whitney U and Fisher’s Exact tests. Results: Of the 33 companies analyzed, 15 (45.5%) had billing codes at IPO. The median IPO price was $17.00, with no significant difference between groups. Those with billing codes were 25.5 times more likely to achieve a positive CAGR. Their median market capitalization increased 56.3%, compared to a median decline of 80.1% for those without billing codes. All five top performers, in terms of CAGR, had billing codes at IPO, whereas nine of the ten worst performers lacked them. Companies without billing codes were 16 times more likely to experience a drop in market capitalization by the study’s end. Conclusion: Founders, investors, developers and analysts may have overestimated consumers’ willingness to pay out-of-pocket or underestimated reimbursement complexities. As the sector evolves, especially with AI-driven solutions, stakeholders should prioritize billing codes to ensure sustainable growth, financial stability, and maximized investor returns. ...

Parrondo’s effects with aperiodic protocols ArXiv ID: 2410.02987 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this work, we study the effectiveness of employing archetypal aperiodic sequencing – namely Fibonacci, Thue-Morse, and Rudin-Shapiro – on the Parrondian effect. From a capital gain perspective, our results show that these series do yield a Parrondo’s Paradox with the Thue-Morse based strategy outperforming not only the other two aperiodic strategies but benchmark Parrondian games with random and periodical ($AABBAABB\ldots$) switching as well. The least performing of the three aperiodic strategies is the Rudin-Shapiro. To elucidate the underlying causes of these results, we analyze the cross-correlation between the capital generated by the switching protocols and that of the isolated losing games. This analysis reveals that a strong anticorrelation with both isolated games is typically required to achieve a robust manifestation of Parrondo’s effect. We also study the influence of the sequencing on the capital using the lacunarity and persistence measures. In general, we observe that the switching protocols tend to become less performing in terms of the capital as one increases the persistence and thus approaches the features of an isolated losing game. For the (log-)lacunarity, a property related to heterogeneity, we notice that for small persistence (less than 0.5) the performance increases with the lacunarity with a maximum around 0.4. In respect of this, our work shows that the optimization of a switching protocol is strongly dependent on a fine-tuning between persistence and heterogeneity. ...

Distilling Analysis from Generative Models for Investment Decisions ArXiv ID: 2410.07225 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Professionals’ decisions are the focus of every field. For example, politicians’ decisions will influence the future of the country, and stock analysts’ decisions will impact the market. Recognizing the influential role of professionals’ perspectives, inclinations, and actions in shaping decision-making processes and future trends across multiple fields, we propose three tasks for modeling these decisions in the financial market. To facilitate this, we introduce a novel dataset, A3, designed to simulate professionals’ decision-making processes. While we find current models present challenges in forecasting professionals’ behaviors, particularly in making trading decisions, the proposed Chain-of-Decision approach demonstrates promising improvements. It integrates an opinion-generator-in-the-loop to provide subjective analysis based on each news item, further enhancing the proposed tasks’ performance. ...

Dynamic Portfolio Rebalancing: A Hybrid new Model Using GNNs and Pathfinding for Cost Efficiency ArXiv ID: 2410.01864 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper introduces a novel approach to optimizing portfolio rebalancing by integrating Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) for predicting transaction costs and Dijkstra’s algorithm for identifying cost-efficient rebalancing paths. Using historical stock data from prominent technology firms, the GNN is trained to forecast future transaction costs, which are then applied as edge weights in a financial asset graph. Dijkstra’s algorithm is used to find the least costly path for reallocating capital between assets. Empirical results show that this hybrid approach significantly reduces transaction costs, offering a powerful tool for portfolio managers, especially in high-frequency trading environments. This methodology demonstrates the potential of combining advanced machine learning techniques with classical optimization algorithms to improve financial decision-making processes. Future research will explore expanding the asset universe and incorporating reinforcement learning for continuous portfolio optimization. ...