Combining supervised and unsupervised learning methods to predict financial market movements ArXiv ID: 2409.03762 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The decisions traders make to buy or sell an asset depend on various analyses, with expertise required to identify patterns that can be exploited for profit. In this paper we identify novel features extracted from emergent and well-established financial markets using linear models and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) with the aim of finding profitable opportunities. We used approximately six months of data consisting of minute candles from the Bitcoin, Pepecoin, and Nasdaq markets to derive and compare the proposed novel features with commonly used ones. These features were extracted based on the previous 59 minutes for each market and used to identify predictions for the hour ahead. We explored the performance of various machine learning strategies, such as Random Forests (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) to classify market movements. A naive random approach to selecting trading decisions was used as a benchmark, with outcomes assumed to be equally likely. We used a temporal cross-validation approach using test sets of 40%, 30% and 20% of total hours to evaluate the learning algorithms’ performances. Our results showed that filtering the time series facilitates algorithms’ generalisation. The GMM filtering approach revealed that the KNN and RF algorithms produced higher average returns than the random algorithm. ...

Deep-MacroFin: Informed Equilibrium Neural Network for Continuous Time Economic Models ArXiv ID: 2408.10368 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper, we present Deep-MacroFin, a comprehensive framework designed to solve partial differential equations, with a particular focus on models in continuous time economics. This framework leverages deep learning methodologies, including Multi-Layer Perceptrons and the newly developed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks. It is optimized using economic information encapsulated by Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations and coupled algebraic equations. The application of neural networks holds the promise of accurately resolving high-dimensional problems with fewer computational demands and limitations compared to other numerical methods. This framework can be readily adapted for systems of partial differential equations in high dimensions. Importantly, it offers a more efficient (5$\times$ less CUDA memory and 40$\times$ fewer FLOPs in 100D problems) and user-friendly implementation than existing libraries. We also incorporate a time-stepping scheme to enhance training stability for nonlinear HJB equations, enabling the solution of 50D economic models. ...

High-Frequency Trading Liquidity Analysis | Application of Machine Learning Classification ArXiv ID: 2408.10016 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This research presents a comprehensive framework for analyzing liquidity in financial markets, particularly in the context of high-frequency trading. By leveraging advanced machine learning classification techniques, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest, the study aims to predict minute-level price movements using an extensive set of liquidity metrics derived from the Trade and Quote (TAQ) data. The findings reveal that employing a broad spectrum of liquidity measures yields higher predictive accuracy compared to models utilizing a reduced subset of features. Key liquidity metrics, such as Liquidity Ratio, Flow Ratio, and Turnover, consistently emerged as significant predictors across all models, with the Random Forest algorithm demonstrating superior accuracy. This study not only underscores the critical role of liquidity in market stability and transaction costs but also highlights the complexities involved in short-interval market predictions. The research suggests that a comprehensive set of liquidity measures is essential for accurate prediction, and proposes future work to validate these findings across different stock datasets to assess their generalizability. ...

A new measure of risk using Fourier analysis ArXiv ID: 2408.10279 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We use Fourier analysis to access risk in financial products. With it we analyze price changes of e.g. stocks. Via Fourier analysis we scrutinize quantitatively whether the frequency of change is higher than a change in (conserved) company value would allow. If it is the case, it would be a clear indicator of speculation and with it risk. The entire methods or better its application is fairly new. However, there were severe flaws in previous attempts; making the results (not the method) doubtful. We corrected all these mistakes by e.g. using Fourier transformation instead of discrete Fourier analysis. Our analysis is reliable in the entire frequency band, even for fre-quency of 1/1d or higher if the prices are noted accordingly. For the stocks scrutinized we found that the price of stocks changes disproportionally within one week which clearly indicates spec-ulation. It would be an interesting extension to apply the method to crypto currencies as these currencies have no conserved value which makes normal considerations of volatility difficult. ...

Crisis Alpha: A High-Performance Trading Algorithm Tested in Market Downturns ArXiv ID: 2409.14510 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Forming quantitative portfolios using statistical risk models presents a significant challenge for hedge funds and portfolio managers. This research investigates three distinct statistical risk models to construct quantitative portfolios of 1,000 floating stocks in the US market. Utilizing five different investment strategies, these models are tested across four periods, encompassing the last three major financial crises: The Dot Com Bubble, Global Financial Crisis, and Covid-19 market downturn. Backtests leverage the CRSP dataset from January 1990 through December 2023. The results demonstrate that the proposed models consistently outperformed market excess returns across all periods. These findings suggest that the developed risk models can serve as valuable tools for asset managers, aiding in strategic decision-making and risk management in various economic conditions. ...

Enhancing Startup Success Predictions in Venture Capital: A GraphRAG Augmented Multivariate Time Series Method ArXiv ID: 2408.09420 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In the Venture Capital (VC) industry, predicting the success of startups is challenging due to limited financial data and the need for subjective revenue forecasts. Previous methods based on time series analysis often fall short as they fail to incorporate crucial inter-company relationships such as competition and collaboration. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a novel approach using GraphRAG augmented time series model. With GraphRAG, time series predictive methods are enhanced by integrating these vital relationships into the analysis framework, allowing for a more dynamic understanding of the startup ecosystem in venture capital. Our experimental results demonstrate that our model significantly outperforms previous models in startup success predictions. ...

Method of Moments Estimation for Affine Stochastic Volatility Models ArXiv ID: 2408.09185 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We develop moment estimators for the parameters of affine stochastic volatility models. We first address the challenge of calculating moments for the models by introducing a recursive equation for deriving closed-form expressions for moments of any order. Consequently, we propose our moment estimators. We then establish a central limit theorem for our estimators and derive the explicit formulas for the asymptotic covariance matrix. Finally, we provide numerical results to validate our method. ...

Enhancement of price trend trading strategies via image-induced importance weights ArXiv ID: 2408.08483 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We open up the “black-box” to identify the predictive general price patterns in price chart images via the deep learning image analysis techniques. Our identified price patterns lead to the construction of image-induced importance (triple-I) weights, which are applied to weighted moving average the existing price trend trading signals according to their level of importance in predicting price movements. From an extensive empirical analysis on the Chinese stock market, we show that the triple-I weighting scheme can significantly enhance the price trend trading signals for proposing portfolios, with a thoughtful robustness study in terms of network specifications, image structures, and stock sizes. Moreover, we demonstrate that the triple-I weighting scheme is able to propose long-term portfolios from a time-scale transfer learning, enhance the news-based trading strategies through a non-technical transfer learning, and increase the overall strength of numerous trading rules for portfolio selection. ...

Gradient Reduction Convolutional Neural Network Policy for Financial Deep Reinforcement Learning ArXiv ID: 2408.11859 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Building on our prior explorations of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for financial data processing, this paper introduces two significant enhancements to refine our CNN model’s predictive performance and robustness for financial tabular data. Firstly, we integrate a normalization layer at the input stage to ensure consistent feature scaling, addressing the issue of disparate feature magnitudes that can skew the learning process. This modification is hypothesized to aid in stabilizing the training dynamics and improving the model’s generalization across diverse financial datasets. Secondly, we employ a Gradient Reduction Architecture, where earlier layers are wider and subsequent layers are progressively narrower. This enhancement is designed to enable the model to capture more complex and subtle patterns within the data, a crucial factor in accurately predicting financial outcomes. These advancements directly respond to the limitations identified in previous studies, where simpler models struggled with the complexity and variability inherent in financial applications. Initial tests confirm that these changes improve accuracy and model stability, suggesting that deeper and more nuanced network architectures can significantly benefit financial predictive tasks. This paper details the implementation of these enhancements and evaluates their impact on the model’s performance in a controlled experimental setting. ...

High-Frequency Options Trading | With Portfolio Optimization ArXiv ID: 2408.08866 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper explores the effectiveness of high-frequency options trading strategies enhanced by advanced portfolio optimization techniques, investigating their ability to consistently generate positive returns compared to traditional long or short positions on options. Utilizing SPY options data recorded in five-minute intervals over a one-month period, we calculate key metrics such as Option Greeks and implied volatility, applying the Binomial Tree model for American options pricing and the Newton-Raphson algorithm for implied volatility calculation. Investment universes are constructed based on criteria like implied volatility and Greeks, followed by the application of various portfolio optimization models, including Standard Mean-Variance and Robust Methods. Our research finds that while basic long-short strategies centered on implied volatility and Greeks generally underperform, more sophisticated strategies incorporating advanced Greeks, such as Vega and Rho, along with dynamic portfolio optimization, show potential in effectively navigating the complexities of the options market. The study highlights the importance of adaptability and responsiveness in dynamic portfolio strategies within the high-frequency trading environment, particularly under volatile market conditions. Future research could refine strategy parameters and explore less frequently traded options, offering new insights into high-frequency options trading and portfolio management. ...