Dynamically Consistent Analysis of Realized Covariations in Term Structure Models ArXiv ID: 2406.19412 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this article we show how to analyze the covariation of bond prices nonparametrically and robustly, staying consistent with a general no-arbitrage setting. This is, in particular, motivated by the problem of identifying the number of statistically relevant factors in the bond market under minimal conditions. We apply this method in an empirical study which suggests that a high number of factors is needed to describe the term structure evolution and that the term structure of volatility varies over time. ...

Operator Deep Smoothing for Implied Volatility ArXiv ID: 2406.11520 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We devise a novel method for nowcasting implied volatility based on neural operators. Better known as implied volatility smoothing in the financial industry, nowcasting of implied volatility means constructing a smooth surface that is consistent with the prices presently observed on a given option market. Option price data arises highly dynamically in ever-changing spatial configurations, which poses a major limitation to foundational machine learning approaches using classical neural networks. While large models in language and image processing deliver breakthrough results on vast corpora of raw data, in financial engineering the generalization from big historical datasets has been hindered by the need for considerable data pre-processing. In particular, implied volatility smoothing has remained an instance-by-instance, hands-on process both for neural network-based and traditional parametric strategies. Our general operator deep smoothing approach, instead, directly maps observed data to smoothed surfaces. We adapt the graph neural operator architecture to do so with high accuracy on ten years of raw intraday S&P 500 options data, using a single model instance. The trained operator adheres to critical no-arbitrage constraints and is robust with respect to subsampling of inputs (occurring in practice in the context of outlier removal). We provide extensive historical benchmarks and showcase the generalization capability of our approach in a comparison with classical neural networks and SVI, an industry standard parametrization for implied volatility. The operator deep smoothing approach thus opens up the use of neural networks on large historical datasets in financial engineering. ...

A Survey of Large Language Models for Financial Applications: Progress, Prospects and Challenges ArXiv ID: 2406.11903 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have unlocked novel opportunities for machine learning applications in the financial domain. These models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in understanding context, processing vast amounts of data, and generating human-preferred contents. In this survey, we explore the application of LLMs on various financial tasks, focusing on their potential to transform traditional practices and drive innovation. We provide a discussion of the progress and advantages of LLMs in financial contexts, analyzing their advanced technologies as well as prospective capabilities in contextual understanding, transfer learning flexibility, complex emotion detection, etc. We then highlight this survey for categorizing the existing literature into key application areas, including linguistic tasks, sentiment analysis, financial time series, financial reasoning, agent-based modeling, and other applications. For each application area, we delve into specific methodologies, such as textual analysis, knowledge-based analysis, forecasting, data augmentation, planning, decision support, and simulations. Furthermore, a comprehensive collection of datasets, model assets, and useful codes associated with mainstream applications are presented as resources for the researchers and practitioners. Finally, we outline the challenges and opportunities for future research, particularly emphasizing a number of distinctive aspects in this field. We hope our work can help facilitate the adoption and further development of LLMs in the financial sector. ...

Constrained mean-variance investment-reinsurance under the Cramér-Lundberg model with random coefficients ArXiv ID: 2406.10465 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper, we study an optimal mean-variance investment-reinsurance problem for an insurer (she) under a Cramér-Lundberg model with random coefficients. At any time, the insurer can purchase reinsurance or acquire new business and invest her surplus in a security market consisting of a risk-free asset and multiple risky assets, subject to a general convex cone investment constraint. We reduce the problem to a constrained stochastic linear-quadratic control problem with jumps whose solution is related to a system of partially coupled stochastic Riccati equations (SREs). Then we devote ourselves to establishing the existence and uniqueness of solutions to the SREs by pure backward stochastic differential equation (BSDE) techniques. We achieve this with the help of approximation procedure, comparison theorems for BSDEs with jumps, log transformation and BMO martingales. The efficient investment-reinsurance strategy and efficient mean-variance frontier are explicitly given through the solutions of the SREs, which are shown to be a linear feedback form of the wealth process and a half-line, respectively. ...

Statistical arbitrage in multi-pair trading strategy based on graph clustering algorithms in US equities market ArXiv ID: 2406.10695 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The study seeks to develop an effective strategy based on the novel framework of statistical arbitrage based on graph clustering algorithms. Amalgamation of quantitative and machine learning methods, including the Kelly criterion, and an ensemble of machine learning classifiers have been used to improve risk-adjusted returns and increase immunity to transaction costs over existing approaches. The study seeks to provide an integrated approach to optimal signal detection and risk management. As a part of this approach, innovative ways of optimizing take profit and stop loss functions for daily frequency trading strategies have been proposed and tested. All of the tested approaches outperformed appropriate benchmarks. The best combinations of the techniques and parameters demonstrated significantly better performance metrics than the relevant benchmarks. The results have been obtained under the assumption of realistic transaction costs, but are sensitive to changes in some key parameters. ...

Trading Devil: Robust backdoor attack via Stochastic investment models and Bayesian approach ArXiv ID: 2406.10719 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract With the growing use of voice-activated systems and speech recognition technologies, the danger of backdoor attacks on audio data has grown significantly. This research looks at a specific type of attack, known as a Stochastic investment-based backdoor attack (MarketBack), in which adversaries strategically manipulate the stylistic properties of audio to fool speech recognition systems. The security and integrity of machine learning models are seriously threatened by backdoor attacks, in order to maintain the reliability of audio applications and systems, the identification of such attacks becomes crucial in the context of audio data. Experimental results demonstrated that MarketBack is feasible to achieve an average attack success rate close to 100% in seven victim models when poisoning less than 1% of the training data. ...

Computation of Robust Option Prices via Structured Multi-Marginal Martingale Optimal Transport ArXiv ID: 2406.09959 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We introduce an efficient computational framework for solving a class of multi-marginal martingale optimal transport problems, which includes many robust pricing problems of large financial interest. Such problems are typically computationally challenging due to the martingale constraint, however, by extending the state space we can identify them with problems that exhibit a certain sequential martingale structure. Our method exploits such structures in combination with entropic regularisation, enabling fast computation of optimal solutions and allowing us to solve problems with a large number of marginals. We demonstrate the method by using it for computing robust price bounds for different options, such as lookback options and Asian options. ...

DeepUnifiedMom: Unified Time-series Momentum Portfolio Construction via Multi-Task Learning with Multi-Gate Mixture of Experts ArXiv ID: 2406.08742 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper introduces DeepUnifiedMom, a deep learning framework that enhances portfolio management through a multi-task learning approach and a multi-gate mixture of experts. The essence of DeepUnifiedMom lies in its ability to create unified momentum portfolios that incorporate the dynamics of time series momentum across a spectrum of time frames, a feature often missing in traditional momentum strategies. Our comprehensive backtesting, encompassing diverse asset classes such as equity indexes, fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities, demonstrates that DeepUnifiedMom consistently outperforms benchmark models, even after factoring in transaction costs. This superior performance underscores DeepUnifiedMom’s capability to capture the full spectrum of momentum opportunities within financial markets. The findings highlight DeepUnifiedMom as an effective tool for practitioners looking to exploit the entire range of momentum opportunities. It offers a compelling solution for improving risk-adjusted returns and is a valuable strategy for navigating the complexities of portfolio management. ...

Dynamic Asset Allocation with Asset-Specific Regime Forecasts ArXiv ID: 2406.09578 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This article introduces a novel hybrid regime identification-forecasting framework designed to enhance multi-asset portfolio construction by integrating asset-specific regime forecasts. Unlike traditional approaches that focus on broad economic regimes affecting the entire asset universe, our framework leverages both unsupervised and supervised learning to generate tailored regime forecasts for individual assets. Initially, we use the statistical jump model, a robust unsupervised regime identification model, to derive regime labels for historical periods, classifying them into bullish or bearish states based on features extracted from an asset return series. Following this, a supervised gradient-boosted decision tree classifier is trained to predict these regimes using a combination of asset-specific return features and cross-asset macro-features. We apply this framework individually to each asset in our universe. Subsequently, return and risk forecasts which incorporate these regime predictions are input into Markowitz mean-variance optimization to determine optimal asset allocation weights. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through an empirical study on a multi-asset portfolio comprising twelve risky assets, including global equity, bond, real estate, and commodity indexes spanning from 1991 to 2023. The results consistently show outperformance across various portfolio models, including minimum-variance, mean-variance, and naive-diversified portfolios, highlighting the advantages of integrating asset-specific regime forecasts into dynamic asset allocation. ...

Financial Assets Dependency Prediction Utilizing Spatiotemporal Patterns ArXiv ID: 2406.11886 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Financial assets exhibit complex dependency structures, which are crucial for investors to create diversified portfolios to mitigate risk in volatile financial markets. To explore the financial asset dependencies dynamics, we propose a novel approach that models the dependencies of assets as an Asset Dependency Matrix (ADM) and treats the ADM sequences as image sequences. This allows us to leverage deep learning-based video prediction methods to capture the spatiotemporal dependencies among assets. However, unlike images where neighboring pixels exhibit explicit spatiotemporal dependencies due to the natural continuity of object movements, assets in ADM do not have a natural order. This poses challenges to organizing the relational assets to reveal better the spatiotemporal dependencies among neighboring assets for ADM forecasting. To tackle the challenges, we propose the Asset Dependency Neural Network (ADNN), which employs the Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) network, a highly successful method for video prediction. ADNN can employ static and dynamic transformation functions to optimize the representations of the ADM. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our proposed framework consistently outperforms the baselines in the ADM prediction and downstream application tasks. This research contributes to understanding and predicting asset dependencies, offering valuable insights for financial market participants. ...