Internet sentiment exacerbates intraday overtrading, evidence from A-Share market ArXiv ID: 2404.12001 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Market fluctuations caused by overtrading are important components of systemic market risk. This study examines the effect of investor sentiment on intraday overtrading activities in the Chinese A-share market. Employing high-frequency sentiment indices inferred from social media posts on the Eastmoney forum Guba, the research focuses on constituents of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices over a period from 01/01/2018, to 12/30/2022. The empirical analysis indicates that investor sentiment exerts a significantly positive impact on intraday overtrading, with the influence being more pronounced among institutional investors relative to individual traders. Moreover, sentiment-driven overtrading is found to be more prevalent during bull markets as opposed to bear markets. Additionally, the effect of sentiment on overtrading is observed to be more pronounced among individual investors in large-cap stocks compared to small- and mid-cap stocks. ...

A Comparison of Traditional and Deep Learning Methods for Parameter Estimation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process ArXiv ID: 2404.11526 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We consider the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process, a stochastic process widely used in finance, physics, and biology. Parameter estimation of the OU process is a challenging problem. Thus, we review traditional tracking methods and compare them with novel applications of deep learning to estimate the parameters of the OU process. We use a multi-layer perceptron to estimate the parameters of the OU process and compare its performance with traditional parameter estimation methods, such as the Kalman filter and maximum likelihood estimation. We find that the multi-layer perceptron can accurately estimate the parameters of the OU process given a large dataset of observed trajectories and, on average, outperforms traditional parameter estimation methods. ...

Beyond the Bid-Ask: Strategic Insights into Spread Prediction and the Global Mid-Price Phenomenon ArXiv ID: 2404.11722 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This research extends the conventional concepts of the bid–ask spread (BAS) and mid-price to include the total market order book bid–ask spread (TMOBBAS) and the global mid-price (GMP). Using high-frequency trading data, we investigate these new constructs, finding that they have heavy tails and significant deviations from normality in the distributions of their log returns, which are confirmed by three different methods. We shift from a static to a dynamic analysis, employing the ARMA(1,1)-GARCH(1,1) model to capture the temporal dependencies in the return time-series, with the normal inverse Gaussian distribution used to capture the heavy tails of the returns. We apply an option pricing model to address the risks associated with the low liquidity indicated by the TMOBBAS and GMP. Additionally, we employ the Rachev ratio to evaluate the risk–return performance at various depths of the limit order book and examine tail risk interdependencies across spread levels. This study provides insights into the dynamics of financial markets, offering tools for trading strategies and systemic risk management. ...

Deep Joint Learning valuation of Bermudan Swaptions ArXiv ID: 2404.11257 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper addresses the problem of pricing involved financial derivatives by means of advanced of deep learning techniques. More precisely, we smartly combine several sophisticated neural network-based concepts like differential machine learning, Monte Carlo simulation-like training samples and joint learning to come up with an efficient numerical solution. The application of the latter development represents a novelty in the context of computational finance. We also propose a novel design of interdependent neural networks to price early-exercise products, in this case, Bermudan swaptions. The improvements in efficiency and accuracy provided by the here proposed approach is widely illustrated throughout a range of numerical experiments. Moreover, this novel methodology can be extended to the pricing of other financial derivatives. ...

Learning parameter dependence for Fourier-based option pricing with tensor trains ArXiv ID: 2405.00701 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract A long-standing issue in mathematical finance is the speed-up of option pricing, especially for multi-asset options. A recent study has proposed to use tensor train learning algorithms to speed up Fourier transform (FT)-based option pricing, utilizing the ability of tensor trains to compress high-dimensional tensors. Another usage of the tensor train is to compress functions, including their parameter dependence. Here, we propose a pricing method, where, by a tensor train learning algorithm, we build tensor trains that approximate functions appearing in FT-based option pricing with their parameter dependence and efficiently calculate the option price for the varying input parameters. As a benchmark test, we run the proposed method to price a multi-asset option for the various values of volatilities and present asset prices. We show that, in the tested cases involving up to 11 assets, the proposed method outperforms Monte Carlo-based option pricing with $10^6$ paths in terms of computational complexity while keeping better accuracy. ...

Recommender Systems in Financial Trading: Using machine-based conviction analysis in an explainable AI investment framework ArXiv ID: 2404.11080 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Traditionally, assets are selected for inclusion in a portfolio (long or short) by human analysts. Teams of human portfolio managers (PMs) seek to weigh and balance these securities using optimisation methods and other portfolio construction processes. Often, human PMs consider human analyst recommendations against the backdrop of the analyst’s recommendation track record and the applicability of the analyst to the recommendation they provide. Many firms regularly ask analysts to provide a “conviction” level on their recommendations. In the eyes of PMs, understanding a human analyst’s track record has typically come down to basic spread sheet tabulation or, at best, a “virtual portfolio” paper trading book to keep track of results of recommendations. Analysts’ conviction around their recommendations and their “paper trading” track record are two crucial workflow components between analysts and portfolio construction. Many human PMs may not even appreciate that they factor these data points into their decision-making logic. This chapter explores how Artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used to replicate these two steps and bridge the gap between AI data analytics and AI-based portfolio construction methods. This field of AI is referred to as Recommender Systems (RS). This chapter will further explore what metadata that RS systems functionally supply to downstream systems and their features. ...

Construction of Domain-specified Japanese Large Language Model for Finance through Continual Pre-training ArXiv ID: 2404.10555 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Large language models (LLMs) are now widely used in various fields, including finance. However, Japanese financial-specific LLMs have not been proposed yet. Hence, this study aims to construct a Japanese financial-specific LLM through continual pre-training. Before tuning, we constructed Japanese financial-focused datasets for continual pre-training. As a base model, we employed a Japanese LLM that achieved state-of-the-art performance on Japanese financial benchmarks among the 10-billion-class parameter models. After continual pre-training using the datasets and the base model, the tuned model performed better than the original model on the Japanese financial benchmarks. Moreover, the outputs comparison results reveal that the tuned model’s outputs tend to be better than the original model’s outputs in terms of the quality and length of the answers. These findings indicate that domain-specific continual pre-training is also effective for LLMs. The tuned model is publicly available on Hugging Face. ...

Quantum Mechanics of Human Perception, Behaviour and Decision-Making: A Do-It-Yourself Model Kit for Modelling Optical Illusions and Opinion Formation in Social Networks ArXiv ID: 2404.10554 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract On the surface, behavioural science and physics seem to be two disparate fields of research. However, a closer examination of problems solved by them reveals that they are uniquely related to one another. Exemplified by the theories of quantum mind, cognition and decision-making, this unique relationship serves as the topic of this chapter. Surveying the current academic journal papers and scholarly monographs, we present an alternative vision of the role of quantum mechanics in the modern studies of human perception, behaviour and decision-making. To that end, we mostly aim to answer the ‘how’ question, deliberately avoiding complex mathematical concepts but developing a technically simple computational code that the readers can modify to design their own quantum-inspired models. We also present several practical examples of the application of the computation code and outline several plausible scenarios, where quantum models based on the proposed do-it-yourself model kit can help understand the differences between the behaviour of individuals and social groups. ...

Arbitrage impact on the relationship between XRP price and correlation tensor spectra of transaction networks ArXiv ID: 2405.00051 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract The increasing use of cryptoassets for international remittances has proven to be faster and more cost-effective, particularly for migrants without access to traditional banking. However, the inherent volatility of cryptoasset prices, independent of blockchain-based remittance mechanisms, introduces potential risks during periods of high volatility. This study investigates the intricate dynamics between XRP price fluctuations across diverse crypto exchanges and the correlation of the largest singular values of the correlation tensor of XRP transaction networks. Particularly, we show the impact of arbitrage opportunities across different crypto exchanges on the relationship between XRP price and correlation tensor spectra of transaction networks. Distinct periods, non-bubble and bubble, showcase different characteristics in XRP price fluctuations. Establishing a connection between XRP price and transaction networks, we compute correlation tensors and singular values, emphasizing the significance of the largest singular value. Comparisons with reshuffled and Gaussian random correlation tensors validate the uniqueness of the empirical tensor. A set of simulated weekly XRP prices, resembling arbitrage opportunities across various crypto exchanges, further confirms the robustness of our findings. It reveals a pronounced anti-correlation during bubble periods and a non-significant correlation during non-bubble periods with the largest singular value, irrespective of price fluctuations across different crypto exchanges. ...

Experimental Analysis of Deep Hedging Using Artificial Market Simulations for Underlying Asset Simulators ArXiv ID: 2404.09462 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Derivative hedging and pricing are important and continuously studied topics in financial markets. Recently, deep hedging has been proposed as a promising approach that uses deep learning to approximate the optimal hedging strategy and can handle incomplete markets. However, deep hedging usually requires underlying asset simulations, and it is challenging to select the best model for such simulations. This study proposes a new approach using artificial market simulations for underlying asset simulations in deep hedging. Artificial market simulations can replicate the stylized facts of financial markets, and they seem to be a promising approach for deep hedging. We investigate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by comparing its results with those of the traditional approach, which uses mathematical finance models such as Brownian motion and Heston models for underlying asset simulations. The results show that the proposed approach can achieve almost the same level of performance as the traditional approach without mathematical finance models. Finally, we also reveal that the proposed approach has some limitations in terms of performance under certain conditions. ...