Data-Driven Merton’s Strategies via Policy Randomization ArXiv ID: 2312.11797 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We study Merton’s expected utility maximization problem in an incomplete market, characterized by a factor process in addition to the stock price process, where all the model primitives are unknown. The agent under consideration is a price taker who has access only to the stock and factor value processes and the instantaneous volatility. We propose an auxiliary problem in which the agent can invoke policy randomization according to a specific class of Gaussian distributions, and prove that the mean of its optimal Gaussian policy solves the original Merton problem. With randomized policies, we are in the realm of continuous-time reinforcement learning (RL) recently developed in Wang et al. (2020) and Jia and Zhou (2022a, 2022b, 2023), enabling us to solve the auxiliary problem in a data-driven way without having to estimate the model primitives. Specifically, we establish a policy improvement theorem based on which we design both online and offline actor-critic RL algorithms for learning Merton’s strategies. A key insight from this study is that RL in general and policy randomization in particular are useful beyond the purpose for exploration – they can be employed as a technical tool to solve a problem that cannot be otherwise solved by mere deterministic policies. At last, we carry out both simulation and empirical studies in a stochastic volatility environment to demonstrate the decisive outperformance of the devised RL algorithms in comparison to the conventional model-based, plug-in method. ...

Root-finding: from Newton to Halley and beyond ArXiv ID: 2312.12305 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We give a new improvement over Newton’s method for root-finding, when the function in question is doubly differentiable. It generally exhibits faster and more reliable convergence. It can be also be thought of as a correction to Halley’s method, as this can exhibit undesirable behaviour. Keywords: Root-finding, Newton’s method, Optimization algorithms, Numerical methods, General / Quantitative Methods ...

Asset and Factor Risk Budgeting: A Balanced Approach ArXiv ID: 2312.11132 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Portfolio optimization methods have evolved significantly since Markowitz introduced the mean-variance framework in 1952. While the theoretical appeal of this approach is undeniable, its practical implementation poses important challenges, primarily revolving around the intricate task of estimating expected returns. As a result, practitioners and scholars have explored alternative methods that prioritize risk management and diversification. One such approach is Risk Budgeting, where portfolio risk is allocated among assets according to predefined risk budgets. The effectiveness of Risk Budgeting in achieving true diversification can, however, be questioned, given that asset returns are often influenced by a small number of risk factors. From this perspective, one question arises: is it possible to allocate risk at the factor level using the Risk Budgeting approach? First, we introduce a comprehensive framework to address this question by introducing risk measures directly associated with risk factor exposures and demonstrating the desirable mathematical properties of these risk measures, making them suitable for optimization. Then, we propose a novel framework to find portfolios that effectively balance the risk contributions from both assets and factors. Leveraging standard stochastic algorithms, our framework enables the use of a wide range of risk measures to construct diversified portfolios. ...

Linear and nonlinear causality in financial markets ArXiv ID: 2312.16185 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Identifying and quantifying co-dependence between financial instruments is a key challenge for researchers and practitioners in the financial industry. Linear measures such as the Pearson correlation are still widely used today, although their limited explanatory power is well known. In this paper we present a much more general framework for assessing co-dependencies by identifying and interpreting linear and nonlinear causalities in the complex system of financial markets. To do so, we use two different causal inference methods, transfer entropy and convergent cross-mapping, and employ Fourier transform surrogates to separate their linear and nonlinear contributions. We find that stock indices in Germany and the U.S. exhibit a significant degree of nonlinear causality and that correlation, while a very good proxy for linear causality, disregards nonlinear effects and hence underestimates causality itself. The presented framework enables the measurement of nonlinear causality, the correlation-causality fallacy, and motivates how causality can be used for inferring market signals, pair trading, and risk management of portfolios. Our results suggest that linear and nonlinear causality can be used as early warning indicators of abnormal market behavior, allowing for better trading strategies and risk management. ...

A new behavioral model for portfolio selection using the Half-Full/Half-Empty approach ArXiv ID: 2312.10749 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We focus on a behavioral model, that has been recently proposed in the literature, whose rational can be traced back to the Half-Full/Half-Empty glass metaphor. More precisely, we generalize the Half-Full/Half-Empty approach to the context of positive and negative lotteries and give financial and behavioral interpretations of the Half-Full/Half-Empty parameters. We develop a portfolio selection model based on the Half-Full/Half-Empty strategy, resulting in a nonconvex optimization problem, which, nonetheless, is proven to be equivalent to an alternative Mixed-Integer Linear Programming formulation. By means of the ensuing empirical analysis, based on three real-world datasets, the Half-Full/Half-Empty model is shown to be very versatile by appropriately varying its parameters, and to provide portfolios displaying promising performances in terms of risk and profitability, compared with Prospect Theory, risk minimization approaches and Equally-Weighted portfolios. ...

Managing ESG Ratings Disagreement in Sustainable Portfolio Selection ArXiv ID: 2312.10739 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Sustainable Investing identifies the approach of investors whose aim is twofold: on the one hand, they want to achieve the best compromise between portfolio risk and return, but they also want to take into account the sustainability of their investment, assessed through some Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria. The inclusion of sustainable goals in the portfolio selection process may have an actual impact on financial portfolio performance. ESG indices provided by the rating agencies are generally considered good proxies for the performance in sustainability of an investment, as well as, appropriate measures for Socially Responsible Investments (SRI) in the market. In this framework of analysis, the lack of alignment between ratings provided by different agencies is a crucial issue that inevitably undermines the robustness and reliability of these evaluation measures. In fact, the ESG rating disagreement may produce conflicting information, implying a difficulty for the investor in the portfolio ESG evaluation. This may cause underestimation or overestimation of the market opportunities for a sustainable investment. In this paper, we deal with a multi-criteria portfolio selection problem taking into account risk, return, and ESG criteria. For the ESG evaluation of the securities in the market, we consider more than one agency and propose a new approach to overcome the problem related to the disagreement between the ESG ratings by different agencies. We propose a nonlinear optimization model for our three-criteria portfolio selection problem. We show that it can be reformulated as an equivalent convex quadratic program by exploiting a technique known in the literature as the k-sum optimization strategy. An extensive empirical analysis of the performance of this model is provided on real-world financial data sets. ...

A return-diversification approach to portfolio selection ArXiv ID: 2312.09707 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract In this paper, we propose a general bi-objective model for portfolio selection, aiming to maximize both a diversification measure and the portfolio expected return. Within this general framework, we focus on maximizing a diversification measure recently proposed by Choueifaty and Coignard for the case of volatility as a risk measure. We first show that the maximum diversification approach is actually equivalent to the Risk Parity approach using volatility under the assumption of equicorrelated assets. Then, we extend the maximum diversification approach formulated for general risk measures. Finally, we provide explicit formulations of our bi-objective model for different risk measures, such as volatility, Mean Absolute Deviation, Conditional Value-at-Risk, and Expectiles, and we present extensive out-of-sample performance results for the portfolios obtained with our model. The empirical analysis, based on five real-world data sets, shows that the return-diversification approach provides portfolios that tend to outperform the strategies based only on a diversification method or on the classical risk-return approach. ...

European Football Player Valuation: Integrating Financial Models and Network Theory ArXiv ID: 2312.16179 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract This paper presents a new framework for player valuation in European football, by fusing principles from financial mathematics and network theory. The valuation model leverages a “passing matrix” to encapsulate player interactions on the field, utilizing centrality measures to quantify individual influence. Unlike traditional approaches, such as regressing on past performance-salary data, this model focuses on in-game performance as a player’s contributions evolve over time. Consequently, our model provides a dynamic and individualized framework for ascertaining a player’s fair market value. The methodology is empirically validated through a case study in European football, employing real-world match and financial data. This cross-disciplinary mechanism for player valuation adapts the effect of connecting pay with performance, first seen in Scully (1974), to include in-game contributions as well as expected present valuation of stochastic variables. ...

The cost of artificial latency in the PBS context ArXiv ID: 2312.09654 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract We present a comprehensive analysis of the implications of artificial latency in the Proposer-Builder Separation framework on the Ethereum network. Focusing on the MEV-Boost auction system, we analyze how strategic latency manipulation affects Maximum Extractable Value yields and network integrity. Our findings reveal both increased profitability for node operators and significant systemic challenges, including heightened network inefficiencies and centralization risks. We empirically validates these insights with a pilot that Chorus One has been operating on Ethereum mainnet. We demonstrate the nuanced effects of latency on bid selection and validator dynamics. Ultimately, this research underscores the need for balanced strategies that optimize Maximum Extractable Value capture while preserving the Ethereum network’s decentralization ethos. ...

Limit Order Book Dynamics and Order Size Modelling Using Compound Hawkes Process ArXiv ID: 2312.08927 “View on arXiv” Authors: Unknown Abstract Hawkes Process has been used to model Limit Order Book (LOB) dynamics in several ways in the literature however the focus has been limited to capturing the inter-event times while the order size is usually assumed to be constant. We propose a novel methodology of using Compound Hawkes Process for the LOB where each event has an order size sampled from a calibrated distribution. The process is formulated in a novel way such that the spread of the process always remains positive. Further, we condition the model parameters on time of day to support empirical observations. We make use of an enhanced non-parametric method to calibrate the Hawkes kernels and allow for inhibitory cross-excitation kernels. We showcase the results and quality of fits for an equity stock’s LOB in the NASDAQ exchange and compare them against several baselines. Finally, we conduct a market impact study of the simulator and show the empirical observation of a concave market impact function is indeed replicated. ...